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皐月賞について

jiromarulogo 今年の皐月賞はディープインパクト一色ですね。 馬体は兄ブラックタイドの方が立派でしたが、走る才能はこちらが明らかに上です。 体全体をしなやかに使う走法と、何といっても追い出してからグッと沈み込む感じは、まさに一流馬のそれです。 また、気性面でも大人しく落ち着いていて、道中は折り合いを欠くことなくリラックスして走ることができます。 騎手の意のままに動き、ゴーサインには俊敏に反応します。 このように、ディープインパクトはサラブレッドとしての理想形であり、現時点では非の打ち所がありません。 他のメンバーを見渡しても、この馬を脅かす存在は感じられないのが正直なところです。 圧倒的な人気にはなりますが、この馬に逆らうのは無謀なのかもしれません。 もちろん、競馬には絶対はありません。 弥生賞を勝った反動が不安材料として思いつきます。 それまでの2戦はただ回ってきただけで、前走の弥生賞で初めて競馬をしましたから。 レースの厳しさを知って、逃げようとするのも大体3、4戦目くらいです。 当日のパドックで精神状態を確認したいと思います。 とは言っても、ディープインパクトにとっては、いとも簡単に乗り越えて行くべき壁ですね。 ライバルとして挙げられているアドマイヤジャパンですが、まだまだ未完成な部分が見受けられます。 馬体が若いですし、気性面でも激しいところがあるため、ディープインパクトには遠く及びません。 弥生賞では僅かクビ差でしたが、力差はそれ以上の大きな開きがあります。 はっきり言って、逆転は難しいでしょう。 同じことがローゼンクロイツにも言えます。 ソエが治まり順調に来ていますが、まだまだディープインパクトと競うだけのレベルに達していません。 安藤勝己騎手が上手く乗って初めて、2着争いに加わって来れるのではないでしょうか。 ダンスインザモアは一週間前の追い切りでは素晴らしい動きをしました。 状態はここに来てピークに達しているようですし、勢いを感じます。 ただ、前走のスプリングSでは全てがうまく行き過ぎた感があります。 今回はG1で相手も強くなりますし、前走のようなスムーズな競馬をさせてくれないでしょう。 (月曜日)
aoyagilogo 今回のレースはディープインパクトが中心であることは間違いありません。 未だ経験が浅く、もまれた経験がないことが不安といえば不安でしょうか。 中山競馬場は紛れのあるコースなので、当初は先行力のあるストーミカフェに一厘の望みを託そうと思っていました。 しかし、残念ながらリタイアしてしまい、もはや抵抗できる馬はいないと考えています。 言うまでもありませんが、脚力そのものが違います。 ダービーまでノンストップでいくことを期待していいでしょう。 アドマイヤジャパンも血統面、そして過去の戦績から期待したい馬ですね。 ただ、前走の弥生賞がクビ差だったとはいえ、内と外を周っての差ですから、決定的な差とみるべきでしょう。 今回も逆転は難しいと思います。 マイネルレコルトは距離面に課題がありますね。 前走は休み明けだったせいもありますが、終始掛かりどおしでした。 それでも3着に来るあたり、さすが2歳チャンピオンですが、アドマイヤジャパン同様、逆転は難しいと思います。 しかしながら、休み明け2戦で今回は前走ほどテンションも上がらないでしょうから、巻き返しを期待していいと思います。 現時点で2着争いの筆頭として考えています。 その他、ローゼンクロイツ、ダンスインザモア、アドマイヤフジと伏兵は揃っていますが、やはりディープインパクトの2着争いと見るべきでしょう。 それだけ、ディープインパクトの過去3戦は強烈でしたね。 (火曜日) jiromarulogo 全馬、最終追い切りが終わり、枠順も確定しました。 予想どおり、ディープインパクトは申し分ない追い切り内容です。 まさに武豊騎手の言うとおり、「どこも不安もない」状態です。 気になるとすれば枠順で、大外をブン回されてしまう可能性があります。 それでも勝ってしまうかもしれませんが、内枠からキチッと最短距離を回られるよりも他馬に付け入る隙は生じるはずです。 対照的に内枠を引いたのが、青柳さんも推奨しているマイネルレコルトです。 前走では引っ掛かりましたが、それでも3着に粘りました。 休み明けを考えると上々の内容でしょう。 2000mの距離も、馬体や朝日杯FSの勝ち方を見ると全く心配は要りません。 本来は行きたがる馬ではないので、今回はキッチりと折り合いが付くはずです。 とすれば、この馬の実力を発揮することができ、勝ち負けになるのではないでしょうか。 絶好調の福永騎手が乗るアドマイヤフジも内枠を引きました。 道中はひたむきに脚をタメて、直線勝負に賭けるはずです。 まだまだ粗い部分がたくさんありますが、それだけ未知の部分が多いということです。 もしかして・・・、と感じさせる一頭です。 マイネルレコルトとアドマイヤフジの2頭を魅力的として挙げておきます。 素直にディープインパクトにするか、逆らってみるか、結論は先送りにさせてください。 (木曜日) aoyagilogo ディープインパクトを信頼していいでしょう。 調教も問題ありませんし、また今までは少頭数であったことから、位置取りも後方でしたが、多頭数なら多頭数なりの競馬ができるはずです。 本当に強い馬は不利を受けない、不利を受ける前に回避できる、というのが私の自論です。 また鞍上も大外枠を期待していた通り、相当なる自信を持っているのではないでしょうか。 鞍上の過信が怖いと言えば怖いですが、歴戦の名馬に乗ってきたジョッキーです。 そのジョッキーの高い評価を素直に信じたいと思います。 ディープインパクトの2着争いと考えます。 2着候補の1番手として、前述の通りマイネルレコルトに期待します。 前哨戦では休み明けでテンションが高かったため、終始かかり気味でしたが、それでも3着でした。 スタミナ的にもダービーよりもこのレースだと思いますし、ストーミカフェを子供扱いした朝日杯2歳Sの強さは近年でも上位にランクされていいぐらいの内容でした。 ひと叩きされ、本番では変わってくるはずです。 3番手としてヴァーミリオンに期待します。 ヴァーミリオンというよりもデムーロの腕に期待ですかね。 前走で大敗した分、今回は人気もあまりないでしょう。 成長力に疑問はありますが、ディープインパクト以外とはそれほど差がないはずです。 もう1頭気になるのが、ビッグプラネットです。 母がロンドンブリッジと距離面に不安もありますが、それほど行きたい馬もいませんし、内枠の利を活かして、前残りのシーンがあっても不思議ないでしょう。 気性も勝ったところがあるので、どちらかというと凡走の可能性の方が大きいと思いますが、、、 その他、当然、ローゼンクロイツ、ダンスインザモア、そしてアドマイヤジャパンなども2着争いに加わると思いますが、これら全ての馬の馬券を買っても馬券的な面白みがありませんので、人気どころはマイネルレコルトだけにしたいと思います。 馬単でも馬連でもそれほどオッズに差がないと思いますので、ディープインパクトを軸とした馬連で勝負します。 ◎ディープインパクト ○マイネルレコルト △ヴァーミリオン △ビッグプラネット (金曜日) jiromarulogo ディープインパクトの取捨に迷いましたが、最終結論として本命◎にします。 やはり、現時点での完成度、スピード、スタミナは他馬を凌駕しています。 本音を言えば、ここで負けて、ダービーで勝ってほしいのですが・・・ 弥生賞→皐月賞を連勝して、なおかつダービーも勝つのは至難の業です。 つまり、ここで勝つということは、ダービー制覇が遠のくということにもなりかねません。 馬券的には本命にしましたが、もし勝っても素直に喜べないでしょう。 (土曜日)

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