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負けに理あり、勝ちに理なし

wttakaraduka2005

タップダンスシチーが直線で手応えなく後退していくのを見て、久しぶりにどうすることも出来ない悔しさと怒りがこみ上げてきた。もちろん、タップダンスシチーにではなく、自分自身に対してである。なぜなら、タップダンスシチーを本命にするにあたって、ひとつだけ自分の中に隠していたことがあったからだ。

それは、タップダンスシチーには、前走の金鯱賞で33秒台の脚を使って快勝したことによる反動があるのではないかという不安点であった。33秒台の脚を使って勝利した馬はその後のレースで凡走する(反動が出る)という基礎知識は、今年のオークスでディアデラノビアの評価を落とす際に紹介した。タップダンスシチーは、休み明けにもかかわらず59kgを背負っての激走であったため、金鯱賞後に反動が出ることは十分に考えられた。このことを知っていながらも、そして、タップダンスシチーは体調が優れないのではないかという不安を抱きながらも、タップダンスシチーに◎を打った。

以下、G1トークにおける私のコメント

本命は◎タップダンスシチーを考えています。調教では迫力ある動きを見せていますが、普段は非常に落ち着いていて、年齢を重ねるごとにメリハリが出てきました。鞍上の思うまま自在に動けるレースぶりも、こういった精神的な成長の賜物です。 前走からの反動を心配していましたが、中間の調整過程を見る限り問題ないでしょう。 というよりも、もしかすると一昨年にジャパンカップを制した時よりも上の出来かもしれません。陣営のこのレースに賭ける意気込みが、調教を通じてヒシヒシと伝わってきます。

前走からの反動を心配していましたが、というわずかな前置きはしているが、全体的にはタップダンスシチーの体調に対する不安を打ち消すかのような強気なコメントをしている。一昨年のジャパンカップよりも上の出来かもしれない、というトンチンカンな見解をも示していている。今、こうして読み返しても恥ずかしいかぎりである。

もう一度タップダンスシチーの敗因を述べておくと、前走の金鯱賞で33秒台の脚を使って勝ったことによる反動が出てしまったということである。タップダンスシチーの体調が優れず、本来の実力を発揮できなかったのである。

敗因についてはいろいろな説があるが、佐藤哲三騎手の乗り方が間違っていた訳ではなく、道中のラップが厳しかった訳でもない。前崩れの展開に見えるが、それはあくまでも先行馬が自滅しただけのこと。そもそも、タップダンスシチーはハイラップでガンガンと飛ばし、後続の脚をなし崩し的に使わせて勝つパターンの競馬が得意ではなかったのか。何度でも言うが、タップダンスシチーの敗因は前走からの反動で体調が万全ではなかったということである。

それでは、ここまで言う私がなぜタップダンスシチーを本命にしてしまったのか。以下の2つの思考の流れが思い浮かぶ。

1、宝塚記念は古馬の定量戦で、実力が反映されやすいレースであるため、実力馬が勝つであろうという大局観があった。ゼンノロブロイとタップダンスシチーが実力的には一枚抜けていて、勝つのはどちらかだろうと考えていた。そして、予想過程において、ゼンノロブロイは昨年3連勝しての休み明け初戦という理由で勝つことは難しいという確信があった。

2、タップダンスシチーを本命に推すためには、前走からの反動という不安を打ち消す必要があった。そこで、中間の調教でも緩められることなくハードに乗られ、77秒台という好時計を連発していたことを裏付けとして、今回のタップダンスシチーは生涯最高の出来だった一昨年のジャパンカップより調子が良いかもと、自分を信じ込ませた。

まとめると、ゼンノロブロイかタップダンスシチーのどちらかが勝つだろうという無意識の前提がまず間違っていたことになる。確かに、宝塚記念は強い馬が普通に競馬をすれば、順当に勝つことのできるレースである。しかし、強い馬が本来の力を発揮できない状況にあれば、大局観そのものをもう一度見直すべきであった。それができなかったのは、春のG1シリーズの最後のレースを当てて締め括りたいという気持ちがあったからだ。攻めて挑戦することなく、予想の上で妥協してしまったのだ。

今回の失敗から学ぶべき知識は、一流馬になればなるほど、体調が悪くても調教では走ってしまうということ。特に古馬になると、調教の動きだけでは調子の良し悪しを把握することは難しい。だからこそ、目に見えない疲れというものが存在する。調子が悪いはずの一流馬が調教で良い動きを見せていても、それを鵜呑みにしてはならない。

「負けに理あり、勝ちに理なし」とは、野村克也監督の名言である。負ける時には、何かしらの負けるべき理由が必ずあるものである。それはサラブレッドがレースで負ける時にも当てはまるし、私たちが馬券を買って負ける時にも当てはまる。しかし、勝つ時には、勝つべき理由がないことが常である。もしかすると、負けるべき理由がないから勝つのかもしれない。気付いたら勝っていたという表現が自然だろう。確かに、安田記念をアサクサデンエンが(で)勝ったのも、思い返してみるとこれといった勝つべき理由はなかった。あえて言うと、他馬と比べて負けるべき理由がなかったということだろうか。

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治郎丸さんの競馬に対する真摯な態度に、そして自慢でなく、反省の材料として自分の買われた馬券を公開する潔さに、改めて頭の下がる思いです。

私も治郎丸さんと全く同感です。
「この馬が勝つに決まっている」などの決めつけや思い込み、「何が何でも当てたい」という欲目は、予想の眼を曇らせてしまうこと
が度々あります。
(希に、好結果につながることもあるので、やっかいなのではありますが…)

今回の「宝塚記念」、タップダンスシチーとゼンノロブロイの2強対決ムードの高まりの中で、改めて馬柱をみてみますと、2頭以
外にも ”展開や2強の調子次第では” という有力馬(差し馬)が何頭か浮かびあがり、一瞬「おやっ」という感覚になりました。

 しかし、
 「今さら、最初から考えていたのではキリがない。」
 「MAXの能力では2頭が抜けているはず。」
 「春シーズン最後のGIは、ぜひ当てて終わりたい。あえて、穴馬を買うことはない。」
 などの気持ちが強く、先ほどの感覚をすぐに打ち消し、「2強のうちどちらが勝つのか」だけに専念するに至ったのでした。(このへんは、単勝を1頭だけ買うという私の馬券スタイルにも起因するのですが…)

結果論にすぎないのですが、馬券的には、この時点で負けていたのだと思います。

競馬に対しての、強すぎる欲目や思い込み(自分への思い込ませ)について、改めて考えさせられるレースであったと思います。

PS.アメリカンオークスのシーザリオ強かったですね。応援はしていましたが、4馬身も離して勝つとは思いませんでした。

Posted by: たるみ | July 04, 2005 06:44 PM

そうなんです。
馬券を公開するのにはちょっとした勇気が要りました。私にとって、馬券を公開することは、公衆の面前を裸で歩くことよりも恥ずかしいことです(笑)。なぜって、偉そうなこと言って、儲かっていないことがバレてしまうからです。

でも、私の馬券での失敗が、少しでもサイトを見て下さっている皆さんのお役に立てればと思い、決断しました。馬券は負けることの方が多いですから、その失敗を次に生かすことが大切ですよね。たまに当たった時には、自慢させてくださいな。

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