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コンピューターは競馬を超えるのか

computer021997年に、チェスの世界王者であるカスパロフ氏が、スーパーコンピューター「ディープブルー」との対戦に敗れてしまったのは有名な話である。「ディープブルー」は、1秒間に2億通りの指し手を読み、局面ごとに平均14手先までの変化を検索して決めることができる。カスパロフ氏は対局を終えたあと、「新しい知性を感じた」と感想を語ったそうである。誕生から約半世紀を経て、コンピューターが人智を超えた瞬間であった。

また、日本古来のゲームである将棋においても、凄まじい勢いでソフトの開発が進んでいる。現在のコンピューターのレベルはアマチュアの4段程度とされているが、2010年には、将棋の第一人者である羽生善治とコンピューターの真剣勝負が実現するとされる。チェスや将棋に限らず、オセロや囲碁など、人間の歴史が作り上げてきた全てのゲームにおいて、コンピューターが人間の知性を脅かす時代がついにやってきた。

もちろん、競馬においても、たくさんの予想ソフトや予想支援ソフトが開発されている。果たして、競馬の予想というゲームにおいても、コンピューターが人間を超える日がすぐそこまで来ているのだろうか。競馬新聞の馬柱欄を、人間の予想ではなく○○○というソフトの予想が占める日が。もしかすると、百発百中のソフトが開発され、競馬がギャンブルとして成立しなくなるなんてこともあり得るのだろうか。

私の結論から言うと、競馬の予想において、コンピューターが人間を超えることは難しく、百発百中のソフトが開発されることは未来永劫にない。なぜなら、競馬の予想は無限を扱うからである。

チェスも将棋も、限られたマス目の中で限られた駒(石)を動かすクローズド(閉鎖系)なゲームである。限りなく無限に近い変化を持つ将棋でさえも、煎じ詰めれば有限のゲームである。それに対し、競馬はオープン(開放系)なゲームであり、血統、馬の能力、展開、コース設定、馬場、枠順、騎手などの数々の要素が複雑に絡み合う。そこから生まれる変化は無限であり、どれだけコンピューターの計算能力が進歩しようとも扱いきれないのだ。

computer01

かつて、興味本位で予想ソフトを試してみたことがあったが、二度とは使う気にならなかった。うまく表現できないが、予想がトンチンカンなのである。人間性がにじみ出る的外れな予想ではなく、非常に機械的に的外れな予想なのである。あるプログラミングに沿ってポンと弾き出した、もの凄く短絡的な予想には、競馬という世界に対するリスペクトは全く感じられなかった。

誤解されると困るが、私は決して予想ソフトを批判しているわけではない。優秀な開発者が、ある要素だけに限定して作成すれば、そこそこのモノができる可能性は否定しない。たとえば、血統に焦点を絞って分析をして、「このレース条件に強い血統の馬」を弾き出すことはできる。また、全体の走破時計や道中のラップを用いて、各馬の「スピード指数」のような数字を示すこともできる。

しかし、それらは競馬の全体から見るとごくごく一部分に過ぎない。ある一部分が分かったからといって、全体の予想が当たることはない。予想が当たったように見えても、それは偶然に結果が予想に当たっただけである。勘違いをしていると、もう次のレースではカスリもしない予想をすることになる。

コンピューターが進化すればするほど、競馬予想の本質が明らかになるだろう。近い将来、コンピューターは人間と同じ、もしくはそれ以上の思考能力や感情を持つことになる。そうして、全ての面で人間を超越したコンピューターでさえも、競馬の予想を当てることはできない。

競馬の予想の本質とは、「わからないことをわかる」ということである。人間にもコンピューターにも分からない神の領域がある、ということを分からなければならない。競馬の奥行きや深さは測り知れないのだ。

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この度、コンピュータ予想のロジックに関するブログ(ココログ)HRPTV5Cを始めました。ご参考になれば幸いです。

Posted by: HRPTV5C | September 12, 2005 at 11:13 PM

コメントありがとうございます。

ブログを拝見しましたが、頭の悪い私には、難し過ぎてよく分かりませんでした。

ただ、このコラムでも述べている通り、どんなロジックを使っても競馬は難しくて当たりませんよ。

私もまだまだコンピューター予想には負ける気がしませんし。

もうすぐG1シーズンですね。

お互いに頑張りましょう!

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Posted by: ANELISEWE | September 10, 2016 at 01:22 AM

Cure for any type of Dieases is here!!! My name is Rothney Hanson from Londom (UK) who was cured from Genital Herpes by Dr. Ogbes. you can contact him via E-mail: ogbes.herbalhome01@outlook.com for any types of diseases solutions or WhatsApp him on: +2348078467513

I'm here again to appreciate Dr. Ogbes, God will always continue to bless you more abundantly, for the good works you did in my life. I will always keep on writing good and posting my testimonies about you on the Internet. I was tested Genital Herpes positive, I saw a blog on how Dr. Ogbes cured people from different diseases like STD,HPV,HIV with his Powerful Herbal Medicine. I did not believe but I Just decided to give him a try, I emailed him and also got my cure. I am so happy. If you are positive for any type of diseases Call or WhatsaPP him with his phone number: +2348078467513 you can also contact his email: ogbes.herbalhome01@outlook.com every body should join me thank God and also share my testimonies

Posted by: Rothney hanson | September 21, 2016 at 07:39 AM

来自英国,牛津,英国...艾滋病毒一直在我的家人长期...我失去了父母的艾滋病毒。我们都知道医疗,没有解决方案或治愈艾滋病毒,药物治疗的费用是非常昂贵的。有人介绍我到一个男人(本地医生)在非洲称为Erazua博士。我向他展示了我的所有测试和结果,我告诉他我已经被诊断出艾滋病毒,并且花了数千美元用于药物治疗。我说我想试试他,因为有人介绍我给他。他问我一些问题,我正确地回答了他。为了切断故事,他给了我一些药用肥皂和一些药草(忘记了他称呼他们的名字),他想我将如何使用它们。起初我很怀疑,但我只是试一试。我在他的药物治疗2周,我根据他的处方使用所有的肥皂和草药。他会自己完成休息。 3天后我打电话给他,我到了,我告诉他下一步他说什么,他一直在等我的电话。他告诉我去看医生做另一个测试。老实说,我从来不相信他所说的话,直到测试后,我的医生提到的声明,艾滋病毒阴性,医生开始问我怎么做....告诉这个故事,如果任何人可能需要这个人的帮助。您可以直接通过此电子邮件与他联系; dr.erazuagreattemple@gmail.com或dr.erazuagreattemple@hotmil.com或直接与他的手机号码+2349060424123

Posted by: jessica | November 10, 2016 at 08:16 AM

Thank you Dr. Okuns herbal your medicine is a good remedy for herpes cure, and Removing Warts you can contact him via E-mail: herbal.home247@yahoo.com for any types of diseases solutions or WhatsApp him on: +2348078467513

My name is Mary Hanson, am from United State. I want the general public
to know how this great man called Dr. Okuns cure me and my sister from GENITAL HERPES with the herbal medicine gotten from Dr. Okuns, he cures other diseases too like STD, SYPHILIS, My own was worst I have suffered for Human papilloma virus HPV) for 2years he cure me too, herbal is a great medication. he have a medicine that is 100% percent assured to cure any type of disease and you don't need to spend so much money anymore . I want you to contact Dr. Okuns on: herbal.home247@yahoo.com My family is now a brand new one, so stop your worries and go get your herbal medicine now to get your family free from deadly disease. Once again thanks to Dr. Okuns you can contact him now via phone number: +2348078467513 or email him on: herbal.home247@yahoo.com

Posted by: Mary hanson | November 25, 2016 at 03:59 AM

I want to use this great privilege to thank the great Dr Akuna for using his herbal medicine to cure hepatitis B disease and making the evil work of the enemy not to fulfill in my life.i suffered hepatitis B disease for 5years and i have tried all my best to get a cure but all my efforts was to no avail. until i was directed by my friend to contact Dr Akuna that he said to me that he has read so many reports about how he has cured different persons from Hepatitis B disease and they have miraculously be cured. i contacted him and wrote to him and he told me that he will prepare a cure for me that in 2weeks after using it i will be cured.i dived into it and just as he promised me after preparing the medicine he send the medicine to me which i received and used in 2weeks and after i went to check myself and was found negative.i'm so happy viewers contact him today on his email:email:drakunasolutiontemple@gmail.com or his mobile:+23454625070 or his website:
http://drakunasolutiontem.wixsite.com/dr-akuna

Posted by: Kelvin Copeland | November 30, 2016 at 09:20 PM

Thank you Dr. Okuns herbal your medicine is a good remedy for HERPES CUER, and Removing Warts you can contact him via E-mail: herbal.home247@yahoo.com for any types of diseases solutions or WhatsApp him on:+2348078467513

My name is Mary Hanson, am from United State. I want the general public
to know how this great man called Dr. Okuns cure me and my sister from GENITAL HERPES with the herbal medicine gotten from Dr. Okuns, he cures other diseases too like STD, SYPHILIS, BRAIN TUMOR CANCER CURE. My own was worst I have suffered for Human papilloma virus HPV) for 2years he cure me too, herbal is a great medication. he have a medicine that is 100% percent assured to cure any type of disease and you don't need to spend so much money anymore . I want you to contact Dr. Okuns on: herbal.home247@yahoo.com My family is now a brand new one, so stop your worries and go get your herbal medicine now to get your family free from deadly disease. Once again thanks to Dr. Okuns you can contact him now via phone number:+2348078467513 or email him on: herbal.home247@yahoo.com

Posted by: Mary hanson | December 06, 2016 at 06:23 AM

Thank you Dr. Okuns, your herbal medicine is a good remedy for herpes cure, and Removing Warts! You can contact Dr. Okuns via E-mail: herbal.home247@yahoo.com for any types of diseases solutions or WhatsApp him on: +2348078467513

My name is Mary Hanson, am from United State. I want the general public
to know how this great man called Dr. Okuns cure me and my sister from GENITAL HERPES with the herbal medicine gotten from him, he cures other diseases too like STD, SYPHILIS, My own was worst I have suffered for Human papilloma virus HPV) for 2years he cure me too, herbal is a great medication. he have a medicine that is 100% percent assured to cure any type of disease and you don't need to spend so much money anymore . I want you to contact Dr. Okuns on: herbal.home247@yahoo.com My family is now a brand new one, so stop your worries and go get your herbal medicine now to get your family free from deadly disease. Once again thanks to Dr. Okuns you can contact him now via phone number: +2348078467513 or email him on: herbal.home247@yahoo.com

Posted by: Mary hanson | February 19, 2017 at 12:27 AM

Dr. Abor God will continue to bless you more abundantly, for the good works you are doing in peoples life, I will keep on writing and posting testimonies about you on the Internet, I’m from New Zealand, I was diagnosed with Herpes and HIV, and i was totally confused and dont know what to do anymore, the doctor said that he is only going to be giving me drugs to hold on with and there is nothing he can do about it and i keep shearing tear all day of my life and still using the drug waiting for death anytime, until I saw a blog on how Dr. Abor cured someone, I contacted him immediately and he told me the procedure and i agree with him and he prepare me some herbal medicine to use within 7 days and i use it with his description that how i got cure form HIV and HERPES, kindly email him now on IRABORSPELLHERBALHOME@GMAIL.COM THESE ARE THE THINGS Dr. Abor DO. HERPES, HEPATITIS A,B,C,, WITCH CRAFT PROBLEM, HIV/AIDS. CANCER. ALS .NEED YOUR EX BACK, PERFECT CHARM, NEED A BABY, email DR Abor on IRABORSPELLHERBALHOME@GMAIL.COM, thank you Dr and God bless you for saving my life,

Posted by: caldin anya | March 10, 2017 at 11:32 AM


I am here to give my testimony about Dr ohikhobo who helped me in my life, i want to inform the public how i was cured from (HERPES SIMPLEX VIRUS) by Dr ohikhobo,i visited different hospital but they gave me list of drugs like Famvir, Zovirax, and Valtrex which is very expensive to treat the symptoms and never cured me. I was browsing through the Internet searching for remedy on HERPES and i saw comment of people talking about how Dr ohikhobo cured them. when i contacted him he gave me hope and send a Herbal medicine to me that i took and it seriously worked for me, my HERPES result came out negative. I am so happy as i am sharing this testimony. My advice to you all who thinks that their is no cure for herpes that is Not true just contact him and get cure from Dr ohikhobo healing spell cure of all kinds of sickness you may have.Remember delay in treatment leads to death email him via drohikhoboherbalcenter@gmail.com or via wattssap +2348103601042 you can also reach him through is website at http://drohikhoboherbalcenter.webs.com

Posted by: sarah kings | April 06, 2017 at 04:02 PM

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