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Re:Re:Re:秋華賞について

aoyagilogo
本命ですが、未だ迷っています。
確かに前走のラインクラフトは、前半かかり気味かつ直線でやや強引に早め先頭とスムーズな競馬ができなかったにも関わらず、1着エアメサイアと1/2馬身差。
今回京都内回りかつ坂のないコースであること、さらに前走からの上積みを考えれば、本来はラインクラフトへ本命を打つべきでしょう。
人気もこちらが1番人気になるはず。
しかしながら、やはりこの馬のあり余るスピードが気がかりです。
エイシンテンダーが最内枠に入りましたが、この馬自身、オークスで見せたようにスピードを生かして逃げるタイプではありませんし、抑えることもできます。
それ以外にこれという逃げ馬もいませんし、今回、例年と比べ落ち着いた流れになるように思えます。
そうなると、やはり前走でみせた、ラインクラフトの引っかかり方が気になります。
逆にペースが上がった時には、この馬のスタミナも気になります。
誰もがわかっていることだと思いますが、この馬はやはりマイラーです。
いくら、京都内回りコースとはいえ、スピードだけでは押し切れません。
とはいえ、牝馬同士の争いなので、それほど気にしなくてもいいのかも知れませんが、、、

一方のエアメサイアですが、調教をみる限り、前走から状態が落ちていることはないでしょう。
距離はベストですし、春のパフォーマンスからも分かるとおり、京都小回りをこなせる器用さもあると思います。
今回、小回りかつ坂のないコースに変わる分、前走よりも早めにラインクラフトを捕まえにいくはず。
また前回も書いたとおり、鞍上もそういう競馬が得意ですね。
2000mであれば、ラインクラフトとエアメサイアの力はほぼ互角だと思います。
そうなると、マークされる側よりもマークする側のほうが有利なのではないでしょうか。
この馬の戦績がG1で一押し足りなかった母親エアデジャヴーにそっくりだということが少々気がかりですが、今回、鞍上の腕を信じて、こちらを本命にしたいと思います。

これら2頭に割って入るとしたら、やはりニシノナースコールでしょう。
確かに、ローズSの上位2頭とそれ以外の馬たちとは力差を感じます。
ただ、牝馬同士の対決ですし、2強が互いを意識し過ぎるという危険も含んでいます。
ニシノナースコールは確かにいかにも牝馬という印象の馬ですが、私の経験から、古馬1000万クラスを勝てる馬であれば、3歳牝馬のG1にも十分通用します。
またジョッキーも横山典弘騎手と、切れを活かすこの馬にとって願ってもいないパートナーなのではないでしょうか。

とりあえず、現時点ではエアメサイアの単勝、またエアメサイア、ラインクラフト、ニシノナースコールのボックス馬券(もちろん、エアメサイア-ラインクラフトをかなり厚めに)を購入したいと思います。
ただ、まだ私の中でどちらを本命にするのか、決め兼ねています。
再度、調教の内容、過去のレース結果を評価した上で最終的な結論を出したいと思いますが、とりえあず、現時点での予想は以下の通りです。

◎エアメサイア
○ラインクラフト
▲ニシノナースコール

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Comments

この予想は完璧でした

Posted by: 大歩危 | October 16, 2005 at 09:50 PM

はい。

私が外してしまったので、青柳さんが完璧に当ててくれて助かりました。

いやー、素晴らしいパートナーシップですね(笑)。

それにしても、久しぶりに大恥かきました・・・

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