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Re:秋華賞について

aoyagilogo
スプリンターズSは順当に決まり易いレースですし、また2頭の力が抜けていることも歴然としていましたからね。
それでも春G1全敗の私にとっては気分のいい勝利でしたけど。

おっしゃるとおり、今回もエアメサイア、ラインクラフトの2頭が抜けているのは明らかでしょう。
期待していた夏の上がり馬もいませんし、ローズSを見る限り、他馬がこの2頭に割ってはいるのは極めて困難です。
まずエアメサイアですが、オークス、そしてローズSの内容から距離が延びて、その良さがでてきたという印象ですね。
特に夏から大きく成長したという部分は見られませんが、引っかかるところもありませんし、本番に対して何ら不安もありません。
また、今回のメンバー構成からも、ラインクラフトのみを目標にすれような競馬は、鞍上がもっとも得意とするパターンだと思います。
母親がオークス2着、秋華賞3着と大一番をものにできませんでしたが、今回、母親以上にチャンスがあると思います。

春変則2冠のラインクラフトも当然、争奪権内です。
ローズSではスタート時にかかりながらも、2着に粘るあたりさすがです。
本番では京都の小回り、そしてペースも速くなりますし、前走よりも折り合い面である程度進境をみせてくれるでしょう。
ただエアメサイアのところでも触れた通り、他馬に目標とされますし、また本質的にマイラーであることから最後の粘りに一抹の不安を覚えます。
いくら京都の小回り平坦コースとは言え、その分道中のペースも上がるはずですし。

春、私が高い評価を与えたエイシンテンダーですが、前走の3角、4角でのラインクラフトとの手ごたえ、スピードの違いは歴然でした。
マイナス10Kgと馬体も寂しくなったいましたし、少なくともラインクラフトに先着することは考えづらいですね。
その他、伏兵としてニシノナースコール、エリモファイナルあたりを考えていますが、いずれにせよ、2頭の一騎打ち濃厚とみるべきではないでしょうか。

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