« 前に行ける馬と、内枠を引いた馬が有利 | Main | 後出しではありません(笑) »

◎スウィープトウショウ

jiromarulogo
意外と悩ましいレースです。
有力視されている3頭は甲乙付け難いですね。
どの馬にも勝つチャンスがありそうです。

私は◎スウィープトウショウの単勝で勝負します。
ワガママなところがある馬ですが、レースではコンスタントに走ります。
前走の天皇賞秋は、まだ宝塚記念時のような研ぎ澄まされた感じがありませんでした。
あのスローペースで外を回らされてしまったことも敗因で、それでも5着に来るのがこの馬の能力の高さです。
これまで、調教が出来ないと結果が出ていませんが、今回は天皇賞秋からの中1週でもビシッと追えてます。
本番までに集中力が高まってくればシメタものです。
古馬になってスタートも良くなり、ある程度の位置は取れるようになってきています。
極端なスローペースでなければ、どこからでも差し切れるのではないでしょうか。

エアメサイアは安定度では一番です。
長い距離で良さが生きる馬で、前走の秋華賞よりも条件は合っています。
とはいえ、前走の秋華賞は珍しく落ち着いたペースで、この馬向きの流れだったことも事実です。
さらに穿った見方をすれば、ローズSも秋華賞もラインクラフトが最後に止まっているために差し切れているのです。
夏を越してパワーアップしたと考えるのは、単純すぎるかもしれません。
本質的にはワンパンチ足りない馬であると思っていますが。
まあこれも重箱の隅を突いているようなもので、強い3歳世代をあっさりと証明するかもしれません。

ヤマニンアラバスタは、最終追い切りで抜群の動きを見せました。
精神面での成長が大きく、安定して末脚を伸ばすことができるようになりました。
今の状態なら輸送も心配ないのでしょうが、やはり関西に輸送するハンデを越えるには余程の力が必要です。
輸送というハンデと、ここ2戦で33秒台の脚を使った反動が不安で評価を下げました。
とはいっても、上記2頭と同様、勝てるチャンスも十分あると思います。

その他、伏兵としては3歳馬ライラプスを挙げておきます。
2200mの距離は少し長いですが、内枠を引きましたし、折り合いのつく馬なのでこなせそうです。
使いつつハードに調教をこなし、絶好調で臨んでこれます。
人気がない分、松永騎手が気楽に乗れそうなのも好材料です。

追記(11月13日13:00pm)
シンガポールに出張中の青柳さんの最終エントリーが、メールトラブルのためアップできませんでした。
先ほど電話で確認を取りましたが、青柳さんの結論も◎スウィープトウショウの単勝です。
二人の馬券が重なったことが、吉とでるか凶とでるのでしょうか(笑)。


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