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アドマイヤグルーヴは人気がない分、馬券的妙味も

aoyagilogo
1番人気はどうでしょうか。
鞍上が武豊であることから、当然、エアメサイアは人気になります。
が、宝塚記念を勝った男勝りのスイープトウショウも参戦しますし、3連勝中のヤマニンアラバスタも参戦します。
勿論、アドマイヤグルーヴも3連覇がかかっており、この4頭で人気も割れるのではないでしょうか。
そして、人気通り、やはりこの4頭が主力であることも間違いないでしょう。

能力的にはスイープトウショウがNo.1だと思っていますが、スロペース必至の展開だけに、天皇賞秋のような紛れがあっても不思議ではありません。
実際に過去エアグルーヴが超スローペースに泣いて、メジロドーベル、さらにランフォーザドリームの後塵を拝し、連にすら絡めませんでした。
出遅れ癖も未だ完全に解消されていませんし、最後方からの競馬となると届かないシーンもあるでしょう。
春の安田記念、宝塚記念の内容から、能力を疑う余地はありませんが、他力本願であることは否めません。

エアメサイアは先週の調教を見る限り、前走の状態をキープしているようですね。
他馬と比較して2kg減で参戦できますし、また自在もありますので、展開に左右されることはなさそうです。
実際、オークスでも超スローペースの中、完璧な内容の競馬でした。
1着もアメリカオークスを圧勝したシーザリオですから、相手が悪かったと言わざるを得ません。
しかも、鞍上は3連覇のかかっているアドマイヤグルーヴを手放してこちらを選びました。
向こうが5歳、こちらが3歳と、今後の活躍を考えれば賢明な選択だと思いますが。
鞍上がデビュー以来手放していないのも事実であり、この馬に対して能力を感じている証拠だと思います。
牝馬同士であれば、前走の内容からも古馬の壁はないでしょう。

ヤマニンアラバスタは、3連勝中と完全に本格化したようですね。
前々走では牡馬に混じっての勝利、そして前走の府中牝馬ステークスでは、スロペースの中、中段から鋭く抜け出しました。
今の勢いから、ここも一気に通過する可能性はあります。
ただ気になるのが、輸送に対する弱さですね。
3連勝の馬場が新潟での滞在競馬、美浦から東京への輸送と、比較的に輸送が短く済みました。
今回、美浦から京都への長距離輸送が必要ですし、ここで体重を大きく落とすようだと、やはり100%の能力を出すことはできません。
輸送に対する弱さも大分解消されたようですが、直前の体調を要チェックです。
また、左回りで良積を残している馬ですが、今の充実ぶりであれば、右回りに変わることについてはそれほど意識しなくていいでしょう。

アドマイヤグルーヴはどうでしょうか。
前走での大敗、武豊がエアメサイアを選択したことから、それほど人気も上記3頭の次あたりでしょう。
しかしながら、牝馬同士であれば実力が上位であることは確かです。
今年に入ってから成績も冴えませんが、元々、牡馬同士のレースになると成績もいまいちでしたので、あまり気にする必要もないのかも知れません。
天皇賞秋を使ってここを目標にきているわけですし、一昨年は牝馬3冠馬のスティルインラヴ、そして去年は秋華賞を勝ち、勢いのあるスイープトウショウを負かして2連覇している馬です。
逆に人気がない分、馬券的な妙味もありますね。
牝馬だけに体調の変化も激しく、3連覇は至難の業です。
しかし、オーストラリアではマカイビーディーヴァがメルボルンCを3連覇しています。
いずれにせよ、マークすべき馬でしょう。

もし、上位4頭に割って入るとすれば、展開の利を受ける馬、オースミハルカ以外いないでしょう。
勝つことはないと思いますが、前走でも3着に粘っていますし、昨年と同じようなパフォーマンスを示すことができれば、連に絡んでもおかしくありません。

強力な外国2騎が回避しましたし、上位4頭以外から勝ち馬が出ることはないでしょう。
新旧が入り混じり、面白い一戦になるのではないでしょうか。


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Comments

 初めまして。いつも楽しく拝見させていただいております。
  私は上位4頭だけで決まると言うことは、後方からの差し馬のみ、ということになるので怖いです。どうなんでしょうか。

Posted by: jirobacks | November 09, 2005 at 03:30 AM

全くその通りだと思います。先にも書きましたが、牝馬同士のレースとなると、しばしばスロペースに陥ります。特に京都の2200mというのは秋華賞の2000mと異なり、外回りですので、その傾向がさらに強くなります。スローペースになると、全馬ともに最後の直線まで余力が残りますので、波乱を含んだ結果となり得ます。先々週の天皇賞秋が本当にいい教訓ですね。ゼンノロブロイがヘヴンリーロマンスに負けることなんて、普通あり得ないと思いませんか!! と語っていながら、展開がわかっていてもそういった馬たちに手を出せないところが情けなですが、、、ただし、少なくとも自在性のあるエアメサイアが逃げ馬に先着を許すことはないと思います。でも保証できません、なぜなら、女心と秋の空のように牝馬の体調というのは、、、

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