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タップダンスシチーがゴール板まで粘る

aoyagilogo
ディープインパクトが負けるシーン想像して馬券を購入すること、これに対し全くの異論はありません。
私も負ける可能性がないと思いませんし、また単勝しか購入しない治郎丸さんにとって、ディープインパクトの馬券を購入することいには何も意味がありません。
やはり馬券はリスクとリータンの関係ですから。

しかしながら、私はディープインパクトを頭に相手馬を絞り、馬単で勝負したいと思います。
今回、逃げるのはタップダンスシチーだと思いますが、そしてオースミハルカ、コスモバルクと先行馬も揃いました。
タップダンスシチーが逃げる展開で極端なスローは考えにくいですね。
このような状況で、2通りの決着を想像できます。
1つ目が、周りの馬たちがディープインパクトを意識し過ぎて仕掛けが遅くなり、気がつけば手遅れになっているシーン。
そしてもう1つがディープインパクトが早めに仕掛けて、3コーナで極端にペースの上がるシーン。
この2通りの展開を念頭に、前者のパターンではタップダンスシチー、後者のパターンではハーツクライに有利に働くとみて、この2頭をディープインパクトと相手してあげたいと思います。

タップダンスシチーは今回で引退レースです。
すでに8歳秋(旧9歳)であり、正直、力の衰えは否めません。
しかしながら、JCで見せた2,000m通過1分57秒7という逃げっぷりは、過去のタップダンスシチーを彷彿させる内容でした。
またこの馬の状態は、調教タイムに表れるところがあり、天皇賞秋ではボロボロであった時計が、今回は昨年と変わらない時計で仕上げることができました。
佐藤哲三ジョッキーも逃げ宣言していますし、また彼の性格から、相手への牽制ではなく、間違いなく逃げると思います。
前回かかり気味だったディープインパクトは、今回さらに慎重に乗ってくる可能性もあります。
ディープインパクトが3コーナあたりで仕掛けるにしろ、4コーナ手前で先頭に立つことはないでしょう。
そうなれば、昨年の有馬記念同様、ゴール板まで粘る可能性もあります。

一方、10年前の有馬記念のナリタブライアンのように、ディープインパクトが4コーナ手前で先頭に立つシーンもあり得ます。
この馬が3コーナで仕掛ければ、その他の馬たちも自ずと早めに仕掛け、先行馬にはきつい展開となるかも知れません。
そうなれば、宝塚、JC2着のハーツクライの出番です。
JCの予想時にも述べましたが、今年は未だ勝ち星がありませんが、ハーツクライは昨年秋とは比較にならない状態にあります。
またハイペースになればなるほど、この馬の末脚が威力を発揮します。
JCでは2着に敗れましたが、あのレースはアルカセットより力がなかったのではなく、単に運がなかったのだと思います。
なんといっても差が3センチ差でしたから。
確かに中山よりも東京コースのような広々としたコースのほうが向いていますが、それ以上に展開がこの馬の好走の鍵を握っていると思います。

基本的にはこの2頭を紐として馬券を購入したいと思いますが、もう1頭、私の心情を入れて、サンライズペガサスも購入したいと思っています。
この馬も今回が引退レースです。
競馬に"たられば"は禁物ですが、もし長期休み明けがなければ、、、
今ごろ、ゼンノロブロイあたりとは互角に戦えていた馬になったいたのではないでしょうか。
ジャパンカップで見せ場もありましたし、陣営も最後に目一杯の仕上げをかけました。
長期休み明けが続いたため、馬自身は年齢ほど衰えていません。
最後にこの馬の潜在能力を見せてもらいたいと思います。

ゼンノロブロイ、この馬も状態良さそうですね。
この秋、惜敗続きですが、古馬陣ではNo.1です。
でも最初に述べた通り、馬券はリスクとリターンの関係が重要ですのが、ディープインパクトからこの馬を買うことはしません。
2着に来たら諦めます。

◎ディープインパクト
○タップダンスシチー
▲ハーツクライ
△サンライズペガサス


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