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フェブラリーS2004-プレイバックG1トーク-

jiromarulogo
フェブラリーSはスピードだけではなくスタミナも兼備していないと勝ちきれないレースです。
感覚的には2100mのJCダートと同じと考えてもいいでしょう。
東京競馬場はごまかしの利かないコースなので、実力が正直に反映される真っ向勝負のレースになるはずです。
今年のフェブラリーSのメンバーを見渡してみると、アドマイヤドンの実績・実力が他馬と比べて一枚も二枚も上です。
スピード、スタミナ共に申し分ありません。
昨年のJCでフリートストリートダンサーにまさかの敗戦を喫したのは、アドマイヤドン自身の体調が万全ではなかったからです。
馬体重の推移が示すように、明らかにJBCクラシックでピークを迎えてしまったようです。
しかし、状態が下降線を辿っている中でも、ハナ差の接戦にまで持ち込んだのはこの馬の底力です。
昨年の夏を越して体が戻ったことにより、安定して力を出せるようになりました。
JCダート後、短い休養をはさみましたが、うまく体を戻すことができていれば、フェブラリーS→ドバイWCという夢が膨らみます。
あとは、この馬が力を出し切れるだけの状態にあるかどうかだけ見極めればいいでしょう。
東京競馬場はこの時期のダートでもさほど重くなりませんし、この馬にとってはたとえ雨が降っても問題ありません。
最終判断は調教の動きを見てからにしますが、ダントツの本命候補です。

2着候補としては、同厩舎のタイムパラドックスを挙げます。
この馬も昨年夏の休養をはさんで、体質強化のため安定して走れるようになりました。
距離短縮が不安視されていますが、東京の1600mであれば十分にこの馬の良さは出し切れるでしょう。
ただし、アドマイヤドンと比べてしまうと、かなりの厚い壁を感じます。
アドマイヤドンに勝つことは正直難しいでしょう。

そうなると、それ以下の面々では勝負にならないかもしれません。
サイレントディールやユートピアなども力のある馬ですが、いかんせんメンタル面が弱すぎます。
自分の型の競馬が出来ないとモロさを露呈してしまうようでは、まだまだG1には手が届かないでしょう。

それ以外では、ストロングブラッドが面白いかもしれません。
芝の重賞を勝っている馬ですが、本質的にはダートが合うようです。
勝ちきるだけの迫力は感じませんが、内枠を引いて、ジッと末脚をタメることができれば連下に突入できるかもしれません。

aoyagilogo
フェブラリーSはアドマイヤドンの独壇場でしょう。
川崎のエスプリシーズ、あるいは マイネルセレクトが参戦すれば、まだ盛り上がったのでしょうが…
2着探しの 競馬だと思います。
アドマイヤドンの論評は治朗丸さんに任せるとして、2着候補についてコメントしたいと思います。

その2着候補として、まずは森厩舎の2騎、シャドウスケイプとノボトゥルーをあげたいと思います。
シャドウスケイプはステップレースとして重要な根岸Sを見事な末脚で勝利しました。
東京コースで良績を残していますし、3年前覇者ノボトゥルーのように、勢いに乗ってそのままフェブラリーステークスも!なんてことも十分にありえます。
アドマイヤドンを負かせるとしたら、現在勢いに乗っているこの馬以外いないでしょう。
その可能性は相当低いと思いますが、2着候補筆頭です。

ノボトゥルーはすでに8歳(昔の9歳)ですが、このメンバーであれば、まだまだ十分に闘えそうです。
前走でも全盛期を彷彿させるような末脚を見せてくれましたし、 なんといっても東京コースがこの馬にとってはベストの競馬場です。
2着としては面白い存在です。
ただ、JCダートでも最低人気だったのに、鞍上のせいでしょうか、人気になり過ぎです…
8歳馬がここまで人気になると、逆に考えてしまいますね。

サイレントディールとユートピアが2番人気、3番人気になると思いますが、 この2頭に馬券的妙味を感じませんね。
両頭ともJCダートで大敗しましたが、 確かに今回の距離で再度期待していい馬とは思いますが。

上記2頭であれば、イーグルカフェの方が面白いでしょう。
なんと言っても一昨年の JCダート勝ち馬ですし、昨年の当レースでも3着だった馬です。
ただ、芝であれば 東京コースがベストなのでしょうが、中山1800mのダートで良績を残しているように、 もしかしたら、ダートは中山の質の方が合っているのかも知れません。

スターリングローズも2着圏内でしょう。
一時期の勢いは落ちているようですが、 底力に関してはアドマイヤドン以外とは差がありません。
1600mのダート戦が少なく、 最近は1400mばかり使っているため距離面で不安もありますが、掛かる馬ではないので問題ないでしょう。
もともと1800mでも良績を残していますし。 馬券的妙味からも抑えたい馬です。

いずれにせよ、2着探しのレースでしょう。
ただその選定が非常に難しいですね。

jiromarulogo
アドマイヤドンの最終追い切りを見ましたが、動き自体は疑問符がつきますね。
良く言えば実戦でないことが分かっている、悪く言えば真面目に走っていない。
そんな印象を受けました。
ただし、このレースを目標にじっくりと乗り込んでいますし、ビッシリと仕上げようという陣営の気持ちも伝わってきます。

アドマイヤドンについてもう少し話すと、この馬は本当にダート馬らしくないダート馬ですね。
前走のJCダートで惜敗したフリートストリートダンサーなんかと比べると、体の幅が半分くらいの薄さです。
一般的にゴッつくて力のありそうなダート馬の体形には程遠く、非常に珍しいタイプのダート馬です、

前置きが長くなりましたが、今回は◎アドマイヤドンの単勝で勝負します。
余計な力は使わない馬なのでゴール前ハラハラすることになるかもしれませんが、実力が他の馬とは違い過ぎます。
安藤勝己騎手も今回という今回は負けられないでしょう。

aoyagilogo
アドマイヤドンを軸として勝負したいと思います。
その相手1番手としては シャドウスケイプをあげます。
前哨戦の勝者ですが、1600m以上に実績がないことから、この馬に対する評価は賛否両論でしょう。
しかしながら、 抑えて競馬をする馬ですし、逆に東京コースを得意としているということを強調したいですね。
鞍上も追える江田照ですし、根岸Sの再現、あるいは3年前のノボトゥルーの再現を期待したいと思います。
それ以外には実績上位かつ本来は左回り巧者のイーグルカフェ、シャドウスケイプ以上に東京巧者のノボトゥルー、そして状態面で良化必至のスターリングローズを指名します。
特にスターリングローズはこのメンバーであれば、アドマイヤドン以外とは差がなく、馬券的にもお勧めしたい1頭ですね。

その他人気どころについてですが、サイレントディールは1枠1番を引いてしまったのが不運ですね。
揉まれ弱そうですし、先行せざるを得ないでしょう。
またユートピアに ついては古馬G1のように厳しい展開で通用するのかどうか疑問です。
人気にもなりますし、配当を考えると、馬券を購入したいとは思いませんね。
ブルーコンコルドに とっては1600mは明らかに長いでしょう。

アドマイヤドンを軸に4頭への馬連または馬単で勝負したいと思います。
サイレントディール、ユートピアが来たら、あきらめます。

◎アドマイヤドン
○シャドウスケイプ
▲ノボトゥルー
△スターリングローズ
△イーグルカフェ


■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■
フェブラリーS2004
pbfebs04
【レース結果はこちら】
【レース映像はこちら】
【観戦記はこちら】

この年は、アドマイヤドンの力が抜けていて、馬券的には面白味はありませんでした。実際のレースでも、目一杯に走る他馬を横目に、まるで調教のような(手を抜いた)走りで楽勝してしまいました。この頃からアドマイヤドンは手抜きを覚えてきたのですが、その余裕さゆえに、強さは底知れなく感じました。個人的には、アドマイヤドンのベストパフォーマンスだと思っています。

この年で1番人気の3連勝になりますが、特にこのレースを見ると、やはり東京の1600mダートはゴマカシの利かないコースということを再認識します。力のない馬が乗り方ひとつで勝ってしまうということは、まずないと言ってもいいでしょう。それから、ペリエ騎手の活躍も目に付きますね。翌年も好騎乗で2着に食い込むのですが、無欲で好位を攻めているのが好結果に結びついているのではないでしょうか。直線が長いとはいえ、やはり先行馬有利のコースですからね。


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