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カネヒキリがそれでも勝つことができるかどうか

jiromarulogo
お久しぶりです。
待ちに待った久しぶりのG1ですね。
今年の初戦から当たれば最高ですが、まあ肩の力を抜いて臨みましょう。

さて、今年のメンバーは非常にレベルが高いですね。
もちろん、昨年のJCダートを制したカネヒキリが頭ひとつ抜けているのは確かです。
とはいえ、2ヶ月以上のブランクがありますし、ドバイという目標が先にあるのも事実です。
かつて、アグネスデジタルという馬が、このようなパターンで臨んできたことがありました。
結果はフェブラリーSは勝利したのですが、ドバイでは惨敗してしまいました。
あの時のアグネスデジタルは、フェブラリーSでかなり仕上げていた印象を受けました。
もしカネヒキリの本当の目標がドバイにあるのであれば、ここ(フェブラリーS)でビッシリ仕上げてくることはないでしょう。
休み明けの部分も含めて、多少なりとも余裕残しの仕上げで出走してくるに違いありません。
それでも勝つことが出来るかどうかが、ひとつのポイントでしょう。

ダートG1で2着が6回もあるシーキングザダイヤも、今回はチャンスなのではないでしょうか。
とはいえ、この馬にはどういった条件が合っているのか、イマイチ掴み切れないところがあります。
昨年のフェブラリーSを2着したときは、血統的に時計の速いダートが合うと考えていました。
ところが、暮れの東京大賞典や川崎記念でも2着に好走しました。
つまりは、ダート戦ならば、どんな条件だろうと頂点に立てるだけの力を付けてきているということでしょう。
ひとつだけ不安があるとすれば、昨年秋からコンスタントに使って来ている疲労が出ないかということです。
特にここ3戦は、いずれも厳しいレースでしたから。

アジュディミツオーは、2戦連続でG1レースを制して勢いに乗っています。
内田博幸騎手を擁して、万全の体勢で臨んできます。
この馬はまさにパワータイプで、力の要るダートで本領を発揮するタイプです。
距離も、パワーで押し切れる2000mぐらいが合っているのではないでしょうか。
ところが、今回はスピードが必要とされる馬場ですし、マイル戦では一瞬の切れがなくては勝ち切れません。
ここ2戦とは条件が一変するので、今の勢いをもってしても、どこまで上位に食い込めるでしょうか。


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Tracked on February 15, 2006 at 09:05 PM

Comments

まだ考えが全くといって良いほど固まっていませんが、頭の中ではなんとなく中心カネヒキリVS新興勢力という構図になっています。

一番の悩みどころはやはり地方馬アジュディミツオーの適正でしょうか。

個人的には新興勢力の頑張りを見てみたいですが、カネヒキリも十分新興勢力の部類かもしれませんね。

どちらにしても、楽しみな一戦です。

Posted by: nozoweb | February 15, 2006 at 09:43 PM

nozoweb さん

タガノゲルニカ、ヴァーミリアンなど、新興勢力(4歳馬)には面白いメンバーが揃ってますね。

私としては、アジュディミツオーは地方の重いダートでこそだと思っています。

勢いがあるので、展開が向けば粘りこみもあるかもしれませんが…

今のところ、勝ち負けの対象にはしていません。

なんといっても、カネヒキリの取捨には迷いますね…

nozoweb さんの予想も楽しみにしております!

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