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集中連載:「馬体重は語る」-第4回-

umaweight07 by sashiko

■当日のプラス体重
では、当日のプラス馬体重はどう解釈すればいいのだろうか。

わずかな増加であれば全く気にする必要はないが、明らかに大幅なプラスを示していたとすれば、<仕上がり>について疑問を持たなければならない。十分な調教をこなしているかどうかをチェックしてみる必要がある。可能性としては、以下の3つが考えられる。

1、休み明けで調教が不十分である
2、休み明けではないが、中間楽をさせた
3、脚元に不安があって、強い調教ができていない

以上3つの項目に当てはまらない場合は、当日の大幅なプラス体重でもレースへの影響は皆無である。十分な調教をこなしていながらのプラス体重は、その馬の成長分、もしくは季節的(時期的)なものと解釈できるだろう。

たとえば、平成11年のスプリンターズステークスでは、ブラックホークが当日の馬体重プラス10kgでアグネスワールド以下を差し切り、初G1制覇を成し遂げた。このレースに臨む過程で、ブラックホーク陣営は中間も普段以上にきっちりと乗り込み、最終追い切りでもおつりを残さないくらいの強い調教を課していた。その上での当日+10kgであるから、調教不十分により絞れていないという心配は全くなかったのである。

ここ数年では、平成15年天皇賞秋のシンボリクリスエスが休み明け+10kgで圧勝しており、平成16年菊花賞ではデルタブルースが当日馬体重+10kgで勝利している。

つまり、プラス体重=太め残りと単純に考えるのは間違いであり、十分な調教を消化した上でのプラス体重ならば、レースに行っての影響は全くないのである

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治郎丸さん こんばんわ

 この集中連載「馬体重は語る」は以前HP時代に掲載されていたものを、よりわかりやすく、リニューアルされたものですね。
 あらためて読ませてもらいますと、治郎丸さんからのコメントでいただいた「私は当日のパドックはほとんど見ません」の真意がよくわかるような気がします。
 引き続きの連載、参考にさせてください。

 ところで、高松宮記念ですが、近年になく難しそうですね。その関連記事も早速連載されましたね。青柳さんとのトーク楽しみにしています。
                      たるみ

Posted by: たるみ | March 20, 2006 at 01:03 AM

たるみさん

そうです、以前のHPをご覧になっていない方のためのリバイバルになります。

リバイバルとは言っても、近年は、あまり馬体重の大幅な増減がある馬が勝利することが少なく、分かりやすい昔のサンプル(シンボリインディやブラックホーク等)をそのまま使っています。

たるみさんは、もう一度確認という意味で読んでいただければ幸いです。

高松宮記念は難解ですね。

もしかすると、走ってみなければ分からないかも(笑)。

たるみさんの予想も楽しみにしております!

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