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集中連載:「馬体重は語る」-第2回-

umaweight02 by StudioU

■私たちの決定的な間違い
私たちの決定的な間違いとは、馬の<体調>と<仕上がり>を同じものとして扱っていることである。

ここで私が言う<仕上がり>とは「馬体の出来」、つまり<良い仕上がり>とは「必要な筋肉が充実していて無駄なぜい肉がない状態」のことを意味する。それに対して、<体調>とは「肉体的、精神的な面を全て含め、トータルとして走ることのできる状態にあるかどうか」ということである。いくら<仕上がり>が良くても<体調>が悪ければ、そのレースで能力を発揮することは出来ないということになる。

厩舎関係者、つまり競走馬を仕上げる側の人たちは、その日のレースにおける馬の<仕上がり>を確認するための目安として、馬体重を使っている。例えば、前回のレースでは少し太めで負けてしまったので、今回のレースではもう少し絞った体で出走させようとして調教をする。そしてレース当日、測定された馬体重の数字を見て、「まだ少し重かった」「絞り過ぎた」というようにして当日の馬の<仕上がり>を判断するのである。

ところが、アウトサイダーとして競馬の結果を予想する私たちも、厩舎関係者が<仕上がり>を見るのと同様の見方で馬体重を用いてしまっているのである。つまり、レース当日に発表される馬体重を見て、前走からの増減の幅が大きければ大きいほど気になり、「この馬は減りすぎているから来ない」「この馬は太め残りだから消しだ」などと考えてしまっているということである。

なぜそのような馬体重の用い方が決定的に間違っているかというと、当日の馬体重から知ることができるのは、あくまで馬のそのレースにおける<仕上がり>であって<体調>ではないからである。予想をする私たちにとって大切なのは、レースでの結果に大きな影響を与える<体調>であって<仕上がり>ではない。だからこそ、極論してしまうと、私たちは予想をする際に当日の馬体重を見る必要は全くないのである。

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Comments

こんばんは。

確かに大事なのは体調であり、如何に走れる状態にあるかということですよね。

私は厩舎サイドの特徴や、騎手は気にしますが、馬体重に関してはあまり気にしていません。

だってプラス20キロでも走る馬は走るんですもん(笑)

Posted by: nozoweb | March 14, 2006 at 09:18 PM

そう、nozowebさんのおっしゃる通り、プラス20kgでも走る馬は走るんです。

ただし、それはあくまでも当日の馬体重の話。

私は馬体重は<体調>と密接な関係にあると思っていて、これからそれを論じていきますので、お楽しみに!

「ウィークエンドの05」の血統論も楽しみにしていますよ。

Posted by: 治郎丸敬之 | March 14, 2006 at 10:15 PM

馬体重を気にしなくていい――。
言い切ってもらえて安心しました。
これでもう少しマシな予想ができる……ような気がします(できたらいいナ)。

Posted by: 夏葉 | March 15, 2006 at 10:47 PM

治朗丸さん、おひさしぶりです☆

やっと忙しさから開放され、競馬に集中できる、というところです。(まぁ完全に開放されるのはまだまだ先ですが・・・f^^;)

馬体重はアテにならないところがありますね。特に3歳戦なんて急に本格化してくる馬がいてまったくアテになりません。

体調を見るすべはあるのでしょうか?自分は調教で判断するしかないのかなぁ・・・、とも思いますが。

次を期待しております☆

Posted by: TAKU | March 16, 2006 at 04:58 PM

夏葉さん

こんにちは。

気にしなくてよいのは、あくまでも当日の馬体重ですよ!

これ以上言うと、これからの楽しみがなくなるので(笑)、ここまでにしておきます。

「瀬戸際日記」での、プラザエクウスの観戦記は嬉しかったです。

ありがとうございます。

Posted by: 治郎丸敬之 | March 16, 2006 at 09:17 PM

TAKUさん

ついに解放されたんですね。

おつかれさまです。

そう、馬体重はアテになりません。

が、やはり、馬体重と体調は密接な関係にあって、そこから体調を見る術はあると思っています。

これから書いて行きますので、乞うご期待!

また色々な意見を聞かせてくださいね。

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