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アドマイヤムーンが負けるその理由とは

アドマイヤムーンの末脚は不発に終わる可能性が高い。もっとはっきり言ってしまえば、アドマイヤムーンは皐月賞で負ける。いや、負けるというよりも、もしかしたら連対すら外してしまうかもしれない。

なぜここまで断言するかと言うと、アドマイヤムーンの体調は下降線を辿っていることが、馬体重から読み取れるからだ。【集中連載:馬体重は語る-第5回-】を読んでくれた方はピンと来るだろうが、馬体重の推移を見れば、弥生賞以降、アドマイヤムーンの<体調>は下がっていくことが予測される。

アドマイヤムーンの共同通信杯での鮮やかな勝ち方を見る限り、当時の478kgという馬体重は太め残りではなく、成長分も含めたベストの馬体重であったことが分かる。そのベストの馬体重からさらに絞って、弥生賞は-6kgという、ほぼ100%に近い、キッチリ仕上げられての出走であった。

馬体重の基本原則をもう一度述べると、

「当日の馬体重の増減が馬の<体調>に影響を及ぼすのは、その日のレースにおいてではなく、レースの後になる」

ということである。

馬体重の増減はその場、その時の馬の<体調>には影響は持たず、レース後の<体調>に影響を与える。つまり、もしレース当日の馬の<体調>を見極めたいとすれば、当日の馬体重の増減ではなく、前のレースまでの馬体重の推移を手がかりとしなければならない。

この基本原則に照らし合わせると、アドマイヤムーンの弥生賞での-6kgというマイナス体重は、弥生賞当日の<体調>には影響を持たない。影響を持つとすれば、レース後の<体調>、つまり今回の皐月賞に臨むに当たっての<体調>ということになる。

どういう影響かというと、【集中連載:馬体重は語る-第6回-】にて、レース後に<体調>が悪くなるパターンとして挙げた、「100%の状態に仕上げられた反動」である。アドマイヤムーンは弥生賞で100%の状態に仕上げられたため、そのレース後に<体調>が悪くなってしまうということになる。反動とはコインの裏であって、たとえ良い結果が出た場合でも、そこに至る過程に少しでも無理があると、ツケがレース後に回ってくるのである。

アドマイヤムーンほどの一流馬になると、私たちの目に見える形では、<体調>の悪さをなかなか表さない。たとえ<体調>が少々悪かろうと、馬体はよく見せ、調教でも良い動きをしてしまう。私たちの目に見える形で表れてきた時は、すでに赤信号が灯っている状態である。しかし、私たちは馬体重を読み解くことによって、黄色信号の状態を見極めることができる。口が利けない馬の代わりに、馬体重は雄弁に語っている。それに気付くか気付かないかは私たち次第である。


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Tracked on April 16, 2006 09:29 AM

Comments

はじめまして。

馬体重のコラム、非常に参考になります。私もアドマイヤについては、前走仕上げ過ぎたという印象です。

当日道悪の場合、サクラについてどう思われますか?私は本命の予定でしたが、今はMサムソンを考えています。

Posted by: nabe | April 16, 2006 03:16 AM

nabe様

はじめまして。

コメントありがとうございます。

サクラメガワンダーは跳びが大きいので、道悪が得意だとは思いません。

そもそも、サクラの冠名の付く馬の道悪ベタは有名ですし(笑)。

とはいえ、今の時点では、どの程度の道悪になるか分かりませんね。

メイショウサムソンも、時計が掛かる馬場ならいいのですが、ぬかるんでしまうような道悪はどうでしょうか。

各馬の力関係や馬場を含めて、難しい皐月賞ですね。

Posted by: 治郎丸敬之 | April 16, 2006 10:59 AM

アドマイヤムーンは今回はあやしいと思っていたんですが、実績的にどうしても切れずに悩んでいたところ・・・

これを読んで切る決断ができ、おかげさまで三連単を的中させることができました!ありがとうございます!

メイショウもドリームもそんなに人気薄になる実績ではなかったのですが、武人気、テレビ番組人気のおかげで驚愕のオッズに。

馬体重も含めて、データはすべてではないにしてもデータから教えられることもたくさんありますね。どのレースでどのデータを最重要視するかが馬券センスの見せどころ。

またすばらしいデータの発見を期待しています!

Posted by: Taishi | April 16, 2006 06:27 PM

Taishiさん

ありがとうございます。

そして、3連単的中おめでとうございます!

私は馬券は外してしまいましたが、Taishiさんのような声をいただけて救われました。

まあ、馬券はいつも当たるわけではないので、次回に向けて頑張ります!

Taishiさんの予想も期待してますよ。

Posted by: 治郎丸敬之 | April 16, 2006 09:36 PM

この記事を見て、ムーンをどうするかずっと悩んでましたが
結局は買ってしまい撃沈しました。
当日の馬体重がプラスになっていたのが
買った決め手だったのですが
結局目に見える数字だけを追ってしまったのです。
弥生賞での走りに心奪われたとは言え、
連載を全部読ませて頂いたにもかかわらず
身になっていませんでした・・・。

これからは目に見えないものに
しっかりと目を向けていこうと思います!

Posted by: くれは | April 17, 2006 12:55 AM

くれはさん

お久しぶりです。

ブログ再開したんですね。

中山競馬場に行った記事、楽しく読ませてもらいました。

私もアドマイヤムーンを切ったところまではカッコ良かったのですが、馬券は外してしまいました(泣)。

また遊びにきてください!

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