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◎フサイチリシャール

Jiromarulogo_9
馬場状態が、今の時点でも非常に読みにくいですね。
皐月賞は馬場状態も読み切れずに失敗してますから、ちょっと慎重になりますね。
おそらく、このまま良馬場で競馬が出来るという前提で決断します。

本命は◎フサイチリシャールに打ちます。
前走は馬場が重かったのと、距離が長かったことが敗因でしょう。
距離が長かったというのは、この馬の体型が皐月賞の時点でコロンとしたマイラー系の体型になっていたからです。
おそらく、2歳までのフサイチリシャールならば、中山2000mは難なくこなせていたはずです。
今回の焦点は、そのコロンとした体型が、ただ単に絞り切れなかったのか、それとも、成長するにつれ血統的な背景(フサイチエアデールは典型的なマイラー体型)が出てきたものか、どちらかということでしょう。
私は後者だと思っていたのですが、今週の立ち写真を見て気持ちに変化がありました。

Pdsatuki10_1
(皐月賞時)

Pdnhkmc07_1
(今回)

皐月賞時と比べて、随分すっきりして、柔らか味が出ているように映ります。
DWコースを調教に混ぜる、松田国厩舎にしては珍しい過程で仕上げてきました。
もちろん、松田国調教師も、皐月賞時の馬体では東京のマイル戦は乗り切れないと考えているのでしょう。
このままの馬体で行ってくれれば、勝利は近いところにあるはずです。
18番枠はあまりプラスにはなりませんが、福永騎手も無理して先行することはないはずです。
もし私ならば、マイネルスケルツィの後ろにポジショニングして、直線に入って追い出しますね。
この馬は、突き抜けるだけの瞬発力もありますから。

それでも心配なのは、私が考えていた血統的なものが出てきているケースで、この場合は調教で少し工夫を凝ら
してみたところで、本質を変えることは出来ません。
ゴール前でスタミナ切れを起こしてしまうでしょう。
要は馬体がすっきりして、伸びが戻っているかどうかです。
まあ、そもそもこの馬のスピードを生かすためには、良馬場であることが前提ですけどね。
この馬は跳びが大きいので、滑るような馬場は苦手でしょう。

人気を2分するマイネルスケルツィは、重でもビクともしないタイプですね。
枠順も前走と同じ内枠を引きましたし、インでジッとしていて直線追い出す、理想的な競馬が出来そうです。
折り合いもつくようになったので、柴田善騎手も安心して乗れるのではないでしょうか。
ひとつだけ心配材料は、前走でかなり仕上がっていたので、上積みはないという点です。
メンバーもそれほど強力ではないので好勝負は間違いないのですが、平行線の状態で勝ち切れるかどうかです。

青柳さん本命のタガノバスティーユは、馬場が悪化すれば狙うつもりです。
何と言っても、母があの不良馬場のフラワーCで2着したウィーンコンサートですから。
勝ったのは確かブランドアートで、すごい万馬券だった記憶があります。
それはさておき、距離もそれほど心配ありませんし、最終追い切りも抜群でしたね。
良馬場では届かないかもしれませんが、馬場が悪くなれば差し切りのチャンスもあるでしょう。

その他、追い切りの動きが抜群に良かった、アドマイヤカリブにも注目しています。
とても骨折明けの馬の追い切りとは思えませんでした。
これまでの戦績を見ると、早く仕上がりすぎたマイル以下の馬というイメージがありますが、見直す必要があるのかもしれません。
マイルの距離には不安はありますが、先行してどこまで粘り込めるでしょうか。

マル外の2頭も魅力的ですね。
キンシャサノキセキはフジキセキ産駒らしくない、伸びのある馬体で、マイルの距離も合っているはずです。
前走は道悪と直線での風でフラついてしまったように、まだ力不足なところはありますが、展開が向けば好勝負でしょう。
ステキシンスケクンは、正反対にどれだけ気持ちよく逃がしてくれるかでしょう。
まだ天性のスピードに体力が付いてきていない状態ですので、厳しい展開になると前走のようなモロさを見せてしまいます。
スムーズに逃げられそうな真ん中の枠を引きましたので、ボス騎手が逃げを主張してどこまで自分の型に持ち込めるでしょうか。


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Comments

治郎丸さんこんにちは。
皐月賞の時はご丁寧なレスありがとうございました。毎回参考にさせてもらってます。

さて今日のNHKマイルですが、去年と同様に内から抜け出した馬が勝ちましたね。Hリシャールにとってはつらい枠と展開でした。
外が伸びないというより、いかにスタミナをセーブするかといった騎乗が求められるのでしょうか?特に3歳にとって東京マイルはなかなか酷なコースに写ります。

次週も東京のマイル戦ですね。治郎丸さんの見解を楽しみにしています(゚∀゚)y-~~~~

Posted by: nabe | May 07, 2006 at 07:02 PM

nabeさん

こんばんわ。

今日もお恥ずかしい予想を披露してしまいました。

フサイチリシャールについては、私の根本的な評価自体が間違っていたと反省しています。

おっしゃるように、全体のタイムが速かったわりに、いかにスタミナをセーブ出来たかが問われましたね。

>3歳にとって東京マイルはなかなか酷なコースに写ります。
→このコメントはすごく勉強になりました。同じ東京のマイル戦でも3歳と古馬では枠順やコース取りの重要さは違ってくるのかも知れませんね。

お互いに来週も頑張りましょう!

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