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アドマイヤキッスは今一歩決め手に欠ける

Aoyagilogo_10
ありがとうございます。
オークスも当たると思いますので、"牝馬の青柳"でも構いませんが、安田記念も自信があるので、"マイルの青柳"と呼んでくれても構いません。
または、第1回のヴィクトリアマイルを外した治郎丸さんとは違って、 これで全G1レースを1度以上的中させた経験がありますので、"パーフェクトガイ 青柳"と呼んでくれてもいいですよ(笑)。

さてオークスですが、おっしゃるる通り、例年、桜花賞上位組がオークスでも好成績を収めていますね。
一方、今年の別路線組には桜花賞上位組との未対戦馬が多く、桜花賞同様、オークスも難しいレースになりそうです。

まず桜花賞1着馬のキストゥヘヴンですが、それほど速いペースではないレースを後ろから差し切ったわけですから、はまったというわけではないでしょう。
また前走は長距離輸送という、この時期の3歳牝馬にとって過酷な条件をクリアして勝ったのですから、長距離輸送のない今回の方が、陣営も仕上げやすいはずです。
問題は折り合いでしょうか。
治郎丸さんが指摘している通り、例年オークスはスローな展開に陥りますね。
明らかに今まで経験してきたレースと異なるペースになりますので、その中、どう脚をタメることができるのか。
課題はそこだけだと思います。

2着のアドマイヤキッスが今回も1番人気に支持されるのでしょうか。
調教では、治郎丸さんの言葉を借りると、本当にゴムまりのような素晴らしい動きを見せますし、調教師が元々、強気な発言をするところもありますが、陣営も相当の自信を持っているようです。
ただ、レースでは今一歩決め手を欠くところがありますね。
2着が多いことがその象徴です。
実際、チューリップ賞でも休み明けとは言え、辛勝でしたし、また桜花賞でも騎手が完璧に乗りながら、2着確保がやっとという内容でした。
特にアドマイヤキッス以外に桜花賞の上位に食い込んだ馬たちは、別路線組でしたから、今年のチューリップ賞のレベルはそれほど高いものではなかったと言えます。
今回の距離延長がこの馬の欠点(決め手のなさ)を補ってくれるかも知れませんが、先述したとおり、逆にオークスでは決め手勝負になるところもあります。
また今回初めて、直前の長距離輸送を経験しなければなりません。
有力候補の1頭ですが、過信禁物だと思います。

コイウタに東京コースは合っていると思います。
ただ桜花賞では、横山典騎手が完璧なレースをして3着だったわけですから、今回、桜花賞1、2着馬を逆転するのは難しいと思います。

最大の惑星馬は3戦3勝のカワカミプリンセスでしょうか。
桜花賞上位組とは未対戦ですし、また底を見せていないという魅力もあります。
一方、例年スイートピーS組はオークスで苦戦しますね。
今年のスイートピーSも決してレベルの高いレースではありませんでしたし、どちらかと言うと、マイラーという印象があります。
ただ爆発力はあります。
折り合い次第では、面白い存在になるかも知れません。


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