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今、信じること

Ibelieve_1

先日、NHKの「プロフェッショナル-仕事の流儀-」という番組で、将棋の羽生善治の特集を観た。羽生善治は弱冠25歳にして栄光の頂点に立ってしまうのだが、その後の知られざる苦悩の10年間で、羽生善治の思考法は大きく変わったという。10代や20代の頃に比べ、衰えた記憶力やひらめきの力を、全体の流れを読む「大局観」によってカバーするというのだ。1000手先を読むと称された羽生善治が、今はあえて手を読まない手を読まないでどう決断するかというと、自分の中から浮かび上がってくる直感を信じるというのだ

ここ最近、年齢や経験によって、予想する際の思考法が変わっていかなければならないことを、私も痛切に感じていた。この変化は、どの道の達人たちも、必ず通ってきている道である。もちろん、私が達人ということでも、年を取っているということでも、競馬の道に熟練しているという意味でもないが、それでもこの春のG1シリーズの自分の不甲斐なさを見ると、ついにそういう時期が来たのかと感じていた。ちょうど私の考えていた思考法の変化と、羽生善治のいう「大局観」の意味合いが一致したので、まさに的を射た気持ちで番組を見ていた。

私も、10代、20代の頃は特に、レースに出走してくる全ての馬を念入りに調べ上げていた。5走くらい前のレースからビデオでチェックして、Gallopや競馬ブックを引っ張り出しては、騎手や調教師のコメントを比較する。調教をつぶさに見たり、パドックで直前の気配を確認したりもしていた。これらの作業を1頭1頭行い、それを材料に縦にも横にも比較するのである。将棋で言えば、全ての手を読んでやろうという気持ちで、私も競馬の予想に臨んでいた。

しかし、この予想法(思考法)には、いつか限界が来るのだ。知識や経験が増えるにつれ、もちろん精度は高くなるのだが、それ以上に、不安や怖れが増幅してしまう。今までであれば考えもしなかった、ありとあらゆる可能性が見えてきて、比較をすればするほど複雑になり、訳が分からなくなってしまう。知識や経験が増えたとしても、必ずしも良い結果には結びつかないのだ。考えれば考えるほど、知れば知るほど当たらないという経験は、誰しもが味わっているのではないだろうか。

全ての手を読んでから、ひとつの手を選ぶという思考法をボトムアップだとすると、直感的に思い浮かんだひとつの手の正しさを読んでいく思考法はトップダウンである。私たちの思考法は、たとえどの道を志そうとも、ボトムアップからトップダウンへと向かわなければならない宿命にある。羽生の言うように、直感はこれまでの経験から浮かび上がってくる以上、いきなり初心者がトップダウンの思考法を用いることは難しいだろう。徹底的なボトムアップから初めて、少しずつ意識的にトップダウンへと思考法を変えていくべきなのである。そして、どれだけ徹底的にボトムアップに取り組めたかによって、トップダウンの精度が違ってくるのではないかと、今ひそかに信じている。

P.S 
同じく羽生善治の思考法に興味を持つあらたさんへ。この番組、ビデオに録画して2回観てしまいました。最後の局面で羽生の手が震える場面ですが、ゴール前で単勝を買っている馬が抜け出してきた時の興奮と同じなのでしょうね。私は全身が震えますから(笑)。

photo by fake Place

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Comments

比較するのはおこがましいですが、すごく良くわかります。
私の本来の専門分野は麻雀なんですが、学生時代は
人の手を隅から隅まで読みきることに熱意を込めて
ギリギリまで理詰めで打っていました。
その甲斐もあり、今では衰えた集中力、記憶力を
大局観、経験則で補って打てるようになっています。
パッと目にして得る情報量は文章で表せるような単純なもの
ではないわけで、複雑な情報の集合体を経験を積んだ脳が
直感という形で判断し、次の一手を選ばせているのだと
私も思います。
麻雀に関してはそれこそ気が狂ったように打ち込んだ修行時代が
あったので今はなんとかなっていますが競馬はまだ
今が修行の真っ最中(^^;、衰えた脳でどこまで
頑張れるか・・・トップダウンの直感で正答を得る域に
なれることを夢見てこれからも修行しなくては・・

Posted by: けん♂ | July 18, 2006 at 12:29 AM

ども。

私もじっくり見て録画しておきました。
ついでにこの休みは、将棋世界の羽生3冠のロングインタビューを読んできました。←立ち読みなのでこの記述。(爆)
プロ中のプロの思考というものは恐ろしいです。
実践での考え方にそのプロセス、姿勢全てにおいて。
ちょっと馬券を間違えたぐらいでもすぐに頭を切り替えられない自分には到底その心中を推し量ることは出来ません。

治郎丸さんは春G1は芳しくなかったようですね。
でも馬券がともなわくても、百回やっても百回その馬券を買うという信念のもとに出した結論であればタイミングがあわなかったと諦めるしかありません。大事なのは自分のスタイルを崩さないことです。
3冠が言ってたように10年前の自分に負けない今でありたいものです。
わたしも歳でっせ。(^_^;

ではでは。

Posted by: あらた | July 18, 2006 at 12:34 AM

けん♂ さん

そうなんですか。
専門分野は麻雀なんですね。
拉致問題についても物凄い情報量ですけど。

>パッと目にして得る情報量は文章で表せるような単純なもの
>ではないわけで、複雑な情報の集合体を経験を積んだ脳が
>直感という形で判断し、次の一手を選ばせているのだと
>私も思います。
→おっしゃる通りだと思います。直感の正体も、脳科学の発展によって少しずつ解明されてきていますが、まだまだ私たちには分からないことの方が多いですね。

これからは私も、少しずつ大局観を意識して予想をしていこうと思っています。

それほど競馬は簡単だとは思いませんが…

Posted by: 治郎丸敬之 | July 18, 2006 at 09:49 PM

あらたさん

どーも。
羽生のロングインタビューなんてあるんですね?
「将棋世界」見てみます!
羽生善治は、まさにプロ中のプロですね。
その思考も、私の知っている限りでも、かなり進化していると思います。
全てが分かるとは思いませんが、そのエッセンスだけでも吸収したく、これからも彼に食らい付いて行きます。

春のG1シリーズは、勝ち負けはともかく、大局観のない予想が多すぎた気がします。
自分の中では、ダービーと安田記念は大局観だけで当たった馬券だったと思います。
各論にこだわりすぎて、無駄に時間を浪費した感が強いんですよね。
こうやって言うのは簡単ですが、実際に予想に臨むとなると、競馬って難しいですよね。

Posted by: 治郎丸敬之 | July 18, 2006 at 09:58 PM

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