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インサイダー情報の罠

Insider_1「インサイダー(競馬関係者)情報が知りたい」という声を耳にすると、つい私は悲しくなってしまう。そういった願望につけこんだ商売が横行していることを嘆いているわけではなく、インサイダー情報を知れば馬券が当たると思い込んでいる競馬ファンが、まだ多くいることに愕然としてしまうのである。

インサイダー情報を頼りに馬券の予想をしていたのは、もはや戦前の話である。現在と比べると限られた情報しか与えられていなかった競馬ファンが、どこからともなく流れてくる風の噂を大きな根拠として、馬券を買わざるを得ない時代が確かにあった。「あの調教師が絶対に勝てると言っている」とか、「あの馬はエビ(屈腱炎)が出ているらしい」等々、聞き捨てならない情報がまことしやかに人口に膾炙したのである。兎にも角にも、予想する上での拠り所が、嘘か本当かわからないはずのインサイダー情報にしかなかったのである。

しかし、戦後、私たち競馬ファンは、自分たちのイマジネーションを用いて馬券を買うことができる、ということを知ることになる。故大川慶次郎氏による「展開」の発見である。「展開」という概念は、今となっては当たり前のように用いられているが、当時は画期的な予想法であった。それぞれの脚質を分析し、実際のレースが行われる前に、仮想上のレースを想定するのである。競馬ファンひとりひとりが、自分の頭の中で、あらゆるイマジネーションを活用して、レースを予想するのである。これが競馬予想の民主化の走りである。

現代において、インサイダー情報などあるはずはない。競馬記者たちは毎日のように取材に来るし、馬体重はレース毎に発表されてしまうし、調教タイムも毎回公表されてしまう。何かを隠すことは難しく、そもそも無意味である。もしインサイダー情報というものがあるとすれば、恐ろしくニッチな情報か、もしくは嘘である。そんな時代に、インサイダー情報を元に、馬券を買おうと考える発想はあまりにも古すぎるのである。

とはいえ、やはりインサイダー情報という響きは魅力的で、私もその罠にハマリそうになったことがある。少し昔の話になるが、キングカメハメハのダービー祝勝会に招かれて行った時のことである。宴たけなわの時、私は席を外して、男性用のトイレで用を足していた。すると、若者二人が何やら楽しそうに話しながら一緒に入ってきて、私の隣の便器で、こんな会話をしながら用を足した。

「菊花賞はハーツクライで間違いないですよ。」
「確かにネ。」

帰り際に後姿をチラッと見たところ、おそらくその二人はノーザンファーム、もしくは社台ファームの牧場(育成)スタッフであった。キングカメハメハの祝勝会で、菊花賞はハーツクライで間違いないとは大っぴらには言えないが、トイレの中での会話だけに、かえって私には真実味を帯びて感じられた。しかも、この情報は私から聞き出したわけではなく、たまたま偶然にも私の元に降りてきたのである。この情報を知るものは、私以外にはいない。私はこの時点で、菊花賞はハーツクライで間違いないと確信してしまった。

結論から言うと、ハーツクライは菊花賞で1番人気に推されるも惨敗してしまった。そして、実は私もハーツクライの馬券を買うことはなかった。なぜなら、夏を越しての成長を期待していたにもかかわわず、馬体は相変わらず華奢なままで、ステップレースの神戸新聞杯でも力なく3着に破れていたからだ。

とはいえ、インサイダー情報の誘惑から抜け出すのは、容易なことではなかった。どう考えても、夏を越しての成長がないハーツクライは勝つ確率が低いのだが、「菊花賞はハーツクライで間違いないですよ。」というあの牧場スタッフの情報が邪魔をするのである。今から考えれば、牧場スタッフの主観的意見に過ぎなかったわけだが、当時はほとんど核心的な情報として、私の予想を占拠してしまっていた。せっかくの情報を切って捨てるのはもったいない、という感覚もあったように思う。いずれにせよ、あの時、ふと耳にしてしまった何気ないひと言が、私の菊花賞の予想を最後まで揺り動かしたのである。

もう一度言おう。現代において、インサイダー情報などはない。もしあるとすれば、恐ろしくニッチで主観的な情報か、もしくは嘘である。こんな時代に、インサイダー情報を元に、馬券を買おうと考える発想はあまりにも古すぎるのである。答えは与えられるものではなく、自分の手で見つけ出すものである。答えはいつもあなたの頭の中(インサイド)にある


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Comments

あまり関係ないのですが、
長距離のレースはペースの問題で予想が難しいですよね。

Posted by: さとし | August 12, 2006 at 10:46 PM

この間の「決して信じてはならない」の記事に
ある意味似てますね。
自分だけが知っている情報を「信じたい」という誘惑。

レースの考察をしていて自分で見つけた情報を
「信じたい」
頭の中(インサイド)にも罠が一杯あって困ります(^^;

Posted by: けん♂ | August 12, 2006 at 11:03 PM

さとしさん

本当に関係ないですねー(笑)。

長距離は道中でペースがコロコロ変わりますからね。

短距離も道中に隙がないので、違った意味で難しいです。

極端な距離は、やはりレースの綾が勝敗を左右することが多いと思います。

さとしさんのブログの、「思いっきりニワカ発言しちゃってください」のエントリー面白かったです。

Posted by: 治郎丸敬之 | August 13, 2006 at 12:29 PM

けん♂さん

暑い日が続きますね。

自分で見つけた情報とインサイダー情報は、全く違うものだと思っています。

情報はある程度あればいいと思いますし、その情報を自分の中で分析して組み合わせていくのが競馬の楽しさですよね。

けん♂さんのブログでの熱心な考察には、いつも驚きを隠せません!

Posted by: 治郎丸敬之 | August 13, 2006 at 12:33 PM

ども。

治郎丸さんは競馬関係者なんですか?
ダービー馬の祝勝会に出席されていられるとは。格が違いますね。(^_^;

文頭のような競馬ファンってまだいるんですね。
だからこそ私たちはおいしい馬券にありつけるので逃さないようにしないと。(爆)

予想の段階であーだこーだ考えて当たっても、
その中のファクターでどれが正しかったかを自分で決めるなんてできません。
例え全てが思ったとおりの結果に出たとしてもです。
当たってもそれは買った馬券とレース結果がたまたま同じだっただけ、
外れたら思ったとおりにならなかった、ただそれだけのことだと思うようにしています。
インサイダー情報も然り。
先のことは馬に聞いたってわかりませんから。(←お腹痛いとかやる気ないとかわかるかも)

私は経験がありませんが、実際の声を耳にしたら常に頭の片隅に残ってしまうでしょうね。
結果が出た後、その時にどう受け止めるのか、それが大事…かな。

人生も馬も、全てタイミングのあらたでした。

Posted by: あらた | August 14, 2006 at 06:22 PM

あらたさん

>予想の段階であーだこーだ考えて当たっても、
>その中のファクターでどれが正しかったかを自分で決めるなんてできません。
>例え全てが思ったとおりの結果に出たとしてもです。
>当たってもそれは買った馬券とレース結果がたまたま同じだっただけ、外れたら思ったとおりにならなかった、ただそれだけのことだと思うようにしています。
→私もそう思います。この考え方に行き着くまでには、相当に苦しい経験をしないと分からないですけどね(笑)。お互い様ですね。

関係者の話を聞いてしまうと、どうしても核心的な情報に聞こえてしまうんですよね。

競馬記者たちは、まさに毎日がその状態だと思います。

その世界の内部に入ってしまうと、逆に視野が狭くなってしまうことも、一面としてはあるのではないでしょうか。

ちなみに、私は純粋なるアウトサイダーを貫いて、これからも競馬を盛り上げていきたいと思っています!

Posted by: 治郎丸敬之 | August 14, 2006 at 09:40 PM

今時インサイダー情報は「ない」には大方賛成!
インサイダーが馬券を買っている現実は
「ある」ですよね。

なぜ、こんな人気薄の馬を軸に高額投票をするのだろう・・・、な~んてのは日常茶飯事。
といっても馬券好きの馬主やクラブ馬主や逃げ馬や
有名予想家の◎だったり、大手予想屋の◎だったり
gcの解説者の第一推奨馬だったり・・・・。

雑音を取り除けば、インサイダーの姿が見えるから
面白いです。人気薄なのに非常に率はいいのです。

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