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決して信じてはならない

Donotbelieve

「競馬の世界において、“絶対”という言葉は禁句である」、とメルマガ「馬券のヒント」で私は述べた。“絶対”に勝てると調教師が宣言した馬が負け、“絶対”に当たると豪語した馬券が外れたりするのを、私は幾度となく見てきているからだ。競馬という絶対がない世界で、“絶対”という言葉が発せられること自体、何かがおかしい。その思考の過程において大きな錯覚をしているからこそ、“絶対”という極めて主観的な言葉が発せられるのである。

これは「コントロール幻想」と呼ばれるものであるが、コントロールできない領域において、あたかも自分は世界をコントロールできているような錯覚に襲われることである。初心者はその世界についていくだけで精一杯であるし、上級者は世界を大局的に見られるので、どれだけ個人にとって正解に近いと思われるものであっても、本当の答えは神のみぞ知るということを理解している。だからこそ、「コントロール幻想」は、その世界が少しずつ分かり始めてきた中級者こそが取り憑かれる。

そして、それとは別に、“信じる”という言葉も、競馬予想の世界では禁句ではないかと、最近になって思い始めた。

私たちが“信じる”という言葉を使うときの心境を思い浮かべてほしい。何かを“信じる”とき、私たちはそのこと・もの・人に対する明らかな証拠や根拠を持ち合わせていない。明らかな証拠や根拠に支えられていないからこそ、自らの衝動に身を任せ、その対象を信じようと決意する。つまり、“信じる”ということは、自ら知らないことを信じようと決意することなのである。それゆえ、“信じる”とは、もはや信じていないことである

卑近なたとえになるが、たとえば自分の大切な人が浮気をしているかも知れないとする。そういう状況において、浮気をしていないという明確な証拠や根拠を持ち合わせていないとすると、私たちはこう言うだろう。「私は“信じる”」、もしくは、「私は“信じている”」と。しかし、この時点で、私たちは疑っている。つまり、“信じる”とは希望的観測に過ぎず、もはや信じていないことなのである。

詭弁のようになってしまったが、何が言いたいかというと、私たちが予想をする上で“信じる”という言葉が出てきた時点で、その予想を疑ってかかった方がいいということである。「○○が勝つと信じて賭ける」とか、「○○騎手を信じて賭ける」とか、もしかすると私もどこかで使っていたかもしれない。そして、おそらくその予想は外れていたに違いない。“信じる”という言葉が発せられるということは、その予想の過程のどこかがおかしく、馬や騎手を信じていないだけでなく、自分の予想すらも信じていない、ということである。競馬を予想する上で、私たちは決して信じてはならないのだ

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Comments

たとえがうますぎて、
こわいですw

Posted by: さとし | August 04, 2006 at 11:41 PM

ども。

なかなか難しいエントリですね。
この文章には行間がありませんので私もほぼ同意です。

信じるというのは思い込むことであって、信用することとは違います。
世の言葉の使い方では同等に扱われることが多いですからね。
同じく浮気を例に出せば、
「私を信じて」と「私を信用して」
では天と地ほど違います。

私は自分の印を信じることは、「迷いがあるもの、というその迷いを捨てること」だと思います。
なので、その最終行為が信じられなければ信じていないことになると思います。

では。

Posted by: あらた | August 05, 2006 at 11:18 AM

さとしさん

怖いでしょ?

さとしさんには怖いでしょ(笑)。

Posted by: 治郎丸敬之 | August 05, 2006 at 12:40 PM

あらたさん

旅先でふと書いたエントリーなので、ほとんど思いつきです(笑)。

でも、無意識のうちに使っている言葉の裏に、意外な人間心理があるのではないでしょうか。

あらたさんの言葉をお借りすれば、迷いがあるからこそ、信じるという言葉を使ってしまうのでしょう。

そうそう、言い忘れましたが、貴ブログにお邪魔した時に、今年の夏初めての花火を見させていただきました。

ありがとうございました。

Posted by: 治郎丸敬之 | August 05, 2006 at 01:19 PM

逆説的ですね~(^^;
疑うべき点があるから”信じる”という発言をするわけで
内心は疑っている・・と。たしかにその通りですね。
信じたい、信じようとしている・・・うーん。

心の底から確信している場合はどう表現すべき
なんですかね?(^^;
もちろん競馬においては使えない表現になるのでしょうけど・・。

Posted by: けん♂ | August 05, 2006 at 06:55 PM

けん♂さん

そう、そこなんです!

心の底から確信している場合…

私も考えたのですが、心の底から確信している場合なんてないんです。

競馬は答えが出るまでは答えがない世界なので、心の底から確信するということはあり得ないはずです。

我ながら、大きく矛盾してますね(笑)。

こんな小難しいことを考えずに、スッと出てきた答えや表現が最も正解に近いのかもしれませんね。

Posted by: 治郎丸敬之 | August 05, 2006 at 08:00 PM

こんばんは!とても内容の深い記事ですね。自分は馬や騎手を信じるってことはおまけ程度で、印なんかは自分で絞ってるだけで信じるなんてあまり考えたことありませんでした。
 
予想は以外にシンプルに収まったときほど好結果につながるような気がします。今日なんかがその象徴かもしれません。

Posted by: パトリオット | August 06, 2006 at 12:08 AM

パトリオットさん

的中おめでとうございます!

そうですよね。

あまり深く考えずに、パッと浮かんだ予想は好結果につながると思います。

ただ、シンプルに考えるのが意外と難しいのですが。

Posted by: 治郎丸敬之 | August 06, 2006 at 12:47 AM

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