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集中連載:「サラブレッドはコースで演技する」最終回

Course15

ここまで読んでくれた方はお分かりいただけたと思うが、「7つの仕掛け」とは、つまり、“レースにどれだけ紛れを生じさせるか”という演出に他ならない。全てのレースが直線だけのコースで行われるとすれば、ほとんどのレースにおいて実力のある強い馬が勝ってしまうところを、コースに施された様々な仕掛けによってレースに紛れが生じ、あっと驚く結末が演出されるのである。

つまり、これら「7つの仕掛け」を読み解くことによって、強い馬が力を出し切ることが出来るコース設定かどうかを、大まかに把握することができるのである。もっと分かりやすく言えば、このコース設定で行われるレースが、実力通り順当に収まりやすいのか、それとも波乱の舞台となってしまうのかを、ある程度の精度で予測することができるということである。もちろん、コース設定だけで本命が来たり、穴が出たりするわけではないが、実力通り順当に収まりやすいコース設定で、大穴を狙うのはあまりにも分が悪く、反対に、波乱の舞台となりやすいコース設定のレースで、ガチガチの本命馬に大金を賭けるのはリスクが大きい。

そして、なんと言っても、「7つの仕掛け」からコース設定を把握することの最大の利点は、コース設定は状況によって移り変わることがないということである。たとえば菊花賞というレースにおいて、毎年出走してくる馬や騎手は異なるが、京都3000mというコース設定だけは不変である。もちろん、コースの改修によって違う競馬場で行われたりすることも稀にあるが、ほとんどの年においては、コース設定は不変である。また、たとえば馬場状態のように、日々刻々と変化していくものでもない。

だからこそ、レースを予想する上での大前提の要素として、安心して組み入れることが出来るのである。レース前にあらかじめ分かっている数少ない不変の要素だけに、予想の参考にしない手はない。コースを知らなければ、私たちは競馬について考え始めることすらできないのである。

(おまけ①へ→)

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長期の連載、お疲れさまでした。
今後の予想の参考にさせていただきます。
しかし、理論がわかっていても冷静に予想するのが、
難しいものですね。

Posted by: さとし | September 04, 2006 at 09:19 PM

さとしさん

華のない内容ではありましたが、自分自身の再確認という意味も含めて連載してみました。

いつもコメントいただいて、大変励みになります。

ありがとうございます。

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