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斤量がこたえるぜ

Kinryou_1 by Photostud

万国共通のモノサシとして、芝のマイル戦では1kgの斤量(負担重量)増は1馬身のロスになるとされる。たとえば、マイル戦で56kgを背負った馬と59kgの馬が同着したとすると、本来であれば、この2頭の馬の間には3馬身の力差があるということになる。もちろん、各馬の個体差があるので一律には扱えない部分はあるが、あくまでも一般的な統計として、芝のマイル戦では1kgの斤量増=1馬身のロスということである。

実を言うと、この斤量についての考え方には応用編がある。たとえ同じ1kgの斤量増でも、条件の違いによって、馬にとっての斤量増に対するこたえ方が違ってくるのだ。条件の違いとは以下の4つである。

(1)背負う斤量が重ければ重いほどこたえる。
(2)距離が長ければ長いほどこたえる。
(3)芝よりもダートの方がこたえる。
(4)斤量が馬体重の12%を超えるとこたえる。

(1)は50kgからの1kg増と、60kgからの1kg増では意味合いが違うということである。前者はほとんど影響がないが、後者はかなりの影響がある。たとえば私たちでも、軽いものを持っている場合には少々重くなろうと大して感じないが、重いものを持っている場合は少し重くなっただけでも苦痛に感じる。

(2)は一瞬にして決着が付いてしまう短距離とそうでない長距離の1kg増では、後者の方が影響は大きいということである。たとえば私たちでも、短い距離・時間であれば我慢できても、距離・時間が長くなればなるほど、ジワジワと感じる重さは増していく。

(3)は芝よりもダートの方が斤量増の影響は大きいということである。これは、力の要る馬場の方が斤量増の影響は大きいということを意味する。たとえば私たちが、重いものを持って、砂浜を走ることを想像してみてほしい。

(4)は斤量泣きする馬、しない馬がいるので、一概に全ての馬に当てはまるわけではないのだが、12%という数字はあくまでも目安として考えてほしい。たとえば、500kgの馬であれば60kgまでならば、ギリギリ我慢できる斤量だということである。それ以上の斤量を背負うと、1馬身どころか、途端に走れなくなるのだ。

これまで、ディープインパクトの背負ってきた最高重量は58kgである。馬体重の12%を目安とすると、ディープインパクトにとっては54kgが分岐点である。国内では圧倒的な能力を誇るためほとんど無視されてきたが、ディープインパクトにとって58kgはすでに酷量であった。そこからさらに1.5kgの上乗せは、馬体重の軽いディープインパクトには相当に厳しい条件となる。

さらに、高低差10mもあるアップダウンの激しいロンシャン競馬場の2400mは、日本の競馬場の2400m以上の距離感を強いられるだろう。そして、ダメ押しのように、ヨーロッパの芝は深くて重い。阪神大章典や雨が降った宝塚記念とは比較にならないほど重いのだ。

斤量については、まるで絶望的な条件が揃ってしまった感がある。ヨーロッパの馬場や斤量に慣れた他の有力馬たちと比べ、ディープインパクトにとっては、これまでのレースとはあまりにも条件が違いすぎる斤量増がこたえる条件の全てが、この凱旋門賞で揃ってしまうからだ。もしかすると、ディープインパクトにとっての最大の敵は、ハリケーンランでもなくシロッコでもなく、59.5kgという酷量なのかもしれない。


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Comments

斤量のことを考えると、
菊花賞を回避して昨年行ったほうが良かったという気もしますねw
田原氏の本では、1キロ1馬身ではなく、
その馬にとっての上限を超えると、途端に走れなくなる、
と書いてありましたよ。

Posted by: さとし | September 23, 2006 10:10 AM

さとしさん

そうですよね。

凱旋門賞は、3歳馬にとって多少有利な設定になっています。

でも、3冠回避して凱旋門って、凄いですよね。

もしかしたら、これからそんな馬も出てくるかも(笑)。

それから、その馬の上限の目安が、ここに書いている12%という数字です。

あくまでも目安ですが。

Posted by: 治郎丸敬之 | September 23, 2006 10:56 AM

治郎丸敬之さん、お久しぶりです。
自分も一番の敵は斤量だと思っています。
キングジョージでなく凱旋門賞を選んだ要因の1つに、斤量の問題もあったと思うので、斤量に関してはディープ陣営も気になる部分なのかも知れませんね。小柄ですから…。
とにかく、少しでも良い馬場でディープの力が発揮できればと願っています。

Posted by: ホーボー | September 23, 2006 11:01 AM

ホーボーさん

お久しぶりです。

やはり、59.5kgというのは酷量ですよね。

別に悲観的になっているわけではないのですが、条件は厳しいということでしょうか。

「競馬SevenDays」でのスプリンターズSの見解、参考になりました。

また遊びに来てくださいね。

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