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凱旋門賞を占う

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世界一決定戦である凱旋門賞に、日本最強馬であるディープインパクトが出走する以上、なんとしてでも勝ってほしいし、出来ることなら負けてほしくない。そういった期待や希望や夢を乗せて、馬券から離れ、ディープインパクトの勝利を心から応援する競馬もまた楽しいと思う。それでも、せっかくの世界一決定戦だからこそ、他の出走メンバーにも着目しながら、客観的にレースを占ってみたい。

凱旋門賞は3歳馬の活躍が目立つレースであることは、周知の通りである。過去10年で3歳馬がなんと8勝もしている。これには様々な理由が考えられるが、最大の理由としては斤量の問題が挙げられる。4歳以上牡馬の59.5kgに対し、3歳牡馬は56kgと、3.5kgの負担重量差があるのである。これに3歳馬の成長度が加わることによって、ますます3歳馬が有利になっている。

つまり、この時期の3歳馬の成長曲線が古馬の実力を上回ろうとしているにもかかわらず、3.5kgの斤量差が設定されているということである。古馬になってから凱旋門賞を勝利するには、グングンと成長をして勢いに乗っており、なおかつ自分よりも軽い斤量を背負った若駒たちに立ちはだかるほどの実力がなければならないのだ。

そういった意味では、おそらく1番人気に推されそうなハリケーンランには分が悪い。ハーツクライを破ったキングジョージは強いレースをしたが、今年に入ってすでに2戦を取りこぼしているように、古馬になってからの成長力という面においては疑問が残る。

また、凱旋門賞を連覇するということは至難の業である。凱旋門賞がレースとしての評価が高くなった1945年以降の優勝馬を見ても、凱旋門賞を連覇したのは以下の3頭しかいない。

1950年→51年 タンティエーム
1955年→56年 リボー
1977年→78年 アレッジド

もちろん、ヨーロッパではトップクラスの牡馬は早目に引退する傾向が強いのだが、それよりも、3歳から4歳までトップクラスの力を維持することがどれだけ難しいかということである。もしハリケーンランが人気どおりに凱旋門賞を勝つことがあれば、それはそれで約30年ぶりの快挙になる。

私はどちらかと言うと、ハリケーンランよりはシロッコの方が上位に来るのではないかと考えている。シロッコは古馬になってから猛然と強くなった馬である。まさに遅れてきた大物といった感もあり、前走のフォア賞ではハリケーンランを完封して見事4連勝を飾っている。きっちりとしたローテーションで、ここ(凱旋門賞)が最大目標であることは間違いなく、その勢いを止めることは容易ではないだろう。

今年は3歳勢のレベルが低いというのが大方の評価であったが、ここに来て不気味な馬たちが次々と頭角を現してきた。まずは、デットーリ騎手が騎乗する可能性が高いとされるレイルリンク(牡・父ダンシリ)はニエル賞の勝ち馬で、ハリケーンランやシロッコと同じA・ファーブル厩舎所属である。夏を越して力を付けてきた、凱旋門賞を制する3歳馬の典型のような馬で、私が日本の競馬ファンでなければ、この馬を優勝候補に挙げるかもしれない。もちろん、ヴェルメイユ賞を勝ったマンデシュ(牝・父デザートスタイル)や、シックスティズアイコン(牡・ガリレオ)など、その他の3歳馬からも目を離してはならないだろう。

追記
凱旋門賞を楽しむためには、過去のレースを見ておくことをおすすめしたい。1986年のダンシングブレーヴが勝った凱旋門賞は、何度見ても鳥肌が立つ。ディープインパクトのこんな末脚が見てみたいと思った。その他のレース映像については、けん♂さんがきちんとまとめてくれているので、こちらからどうぞ→「けいけん豊富な毎日・凱旋門賞に向けて」

苦しくなってきたここからが勝負所!↓

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Comments

今日のJRAレーシングプログラムのコラムに、
ダンシングブレーヴについて書いてありましたよ。
シリウスシンボリも出た好メンバーの凱旋門賞で、
後方大外一気に10頭余りを一瞬に抜き去り、劇的な勝利を収めた。
さらに、国内外にG1馬を残して、16歳で短すぎる生涯を終えた。
という感じでした。
個人的には昨年のハリケーンランの内ラチ強襲も、すごいと思います。

Posted by: さとし | September 23, 2006 at 09:36 PM

私もどちらかというと
シロッコに注目しています。

やっぱり
前走きっちりととったのは
大きいと思います。
期待大ですね。

Posted by: UPUP | September 23, 2006 at 11:10 PM

ご紹介ありがとうごさいますm(__)m

凱旋門賞まで約1週間・・・ドキドキしてきますね~!
今年は強いメンバーが揃いすぎて回避してしまう馬が多く、
少頭数になるのでは?という話が出ていますが
そんな状況の中でも出走してくる3歳馬となれば
それは自信の表れでもあるかと思います。
レイルリンクのニエル賞、抜け出した後に
競りかけられてさらに突き放す強い競馬でした。
メイショウサムソンをもっともっと強くした感じの馬・・(^^;
そんな印象かな、と。

出走予定馬がもうちょっとはっきりしてきたら
なるだけ調べてみようと思っています。
どんなメンバーになるんでしょうね。
なんか当日が来てしまうのがもったいない(笑
というくらい楽しみにしています。

Posted by: けん♂ | September 23, 2006 at 11:39 PM

さとしさん

ダンシングブレーヴの凱旋門賞は、本当に劇的ですよね。

このレースを生で観た人は幸せです。

今年の凱旋門賞もそんなレースになればいいですね。

さとしさんのブログの、ディープインパクトのコメントの掲示板面白かったです(笑)。

Posted by: 治郎丸敬之 | September 24, 2006 at 01:24 AM

UPUPさん

シロッコはディープにとって、かなりの強敵になるでしょうね。

ハリケーンラン以上に、渋太い脚を使いそうな馬です。

ディープは一気に交わすレースをした方がいいかもしれませんね。

Posted by: 治郎丸敬之 | September 24, 2006 at 01:26 AM

けん♂さん

レース映像をまとめておられて、大変参考になりました。

全部観ちゃいましたよ。

3歳馬については、デットーリが騎乗することも含め、レイルリンクが不気味で仕方ありません。

>メイショウサムソンをもっともっと強くした感じの馬・・(^^;
→かなりの強敵になりそうですね(笑)

待ち遠しい反面、当日が来るのが本当にもったいないですね。

色々想像を膨らませるこの期間が、競馬ファンとしては一番楽しいのかもしれません。

Posted by: 治郎丸敬之 | September 24, 2006 at 01:30 AM

こんにちは。
秋のGIシーズン目前なので、わたしも再始動です。
しかしのっけから凱旋門賞。
国内より国外に目が向いてしまいますね。
スプリンターズも面白そうなのに、いけないワ。

今日の神戸新聞杯も、見応えあったと思います。
またこちらで勉強する日々になりますのでよろしくお願いします(そうです、わたしはGIレースオンリーです)。

Posted by: 夏葉 | September 24, 2006 at 08:08 PM

夏葉さん

お久しぶりです。

ダービー以来ですかね?

再始動されて、のっけから凱旋門賞とスプリンターズSは目が眩みますね。

私もここからスタートなので、頑張らせていただきます。

また遊びにお越しくださいね。

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