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口は災いの元

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「口は災いの元」とはよく言ったものだが、ブルーコンコルドをJCダートに出走させた服部調教師の超が付くほどの強気な発言には、耳を疑った。私の記憶によると、師は「競馬に“絶対”という言葉はないことは知っているが、それでも勝つ。他馬をねじ伏せて勝つ。」と高らかに勝利宣言をした。この発言を聞いて私は、ブルーコンコルドは負けると確信した。

というのも、メルマガ「馬券のヒント」や【決して信じてはいけない】でも書いたように、「競馬の世界で“絶対”という言葉は禁句」だからである。“絶対”に勝てると調教師が宣言した馬が負け、“絶対”に当たると豪語した馬券が外れたりするのを、私は幾度となく見てきている。厳密に言うと、服部調教師は“絶対”とは言ってはいないが、そのニュアンスは、“絶対”と感じさせるに足るものであった。

このような“絶対”と感じさせるような発言が出てくること自体、何かがおかしいのだ。服部調教師は、その思考の過程において大きな錯覚をしていたからこそ、あのような極めて主観的な言葉を発してしまったのであろう。ブルーコンコルドの調子がよほど良かったのかもしれないが、他馬との力差や距離、展開などの要素を冷静に分析しての発言ではない。全体が見えていれば、あのような発言になるはずがないのだ。

もちろん、服部調教師の発言とブルーコンコルドの惨敗の間には、直接的な因果関係はない。強気な発言を受けて、幸騎手が消極的な騎乗をしたわけでも、最後の直線で致命的なほどに前が詰まったわけでもない。ただ単純に、ブルーコンコルドには2006年のJCダートを勝てるだけの力がなかっただけのことである。そして、ブルーコンコルドを本命に推した私の思考過程も、どこかに大きな錯覚があったはずなのである。

服部調教師の発言によって、ブルーコンコルドの人気は急上昇した。1週間前の段階ではほぼ無印であった馬が、当日は2番人気にまで祭り上げられた。あの発言を聞いて、ブルーコンコルドに大金を突っ込んだり、押さえに追加したりした競馬ファンは少なくないだろう。私のようにイヤな予感がしても既に予想を出してしまっていたり、また馬券を買ってしまっていた人もいただろう。その馬を管理する調教師としての発言の形を取っているだけに、影響力は極めて大きいのだ。本人はラッパを吹いて自らを鼓舞しただけのつもりだろうが、あまりにも前時代的なやり方であったし、結果的にはホラを吹いたことになってしまった。

私も気をつけよう。

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Comments

馬券ライブでもお話しされていたので
このエントリの内容はわかっているのですが、
あまり勝つ気のないコメントもどうかとおもいますね^^

昨年の有馬記念の前にある陣営が、
ディープを負かしにいくのは神を冒涜するようなもの、
とコメントしていました。
公正競馬ということを考えると、
勝つ可能性のない馬は出してはいけないはずで、
こういう発言もどうかとおもいました。

Posted by: さとし | January 12, 2007 11:29 PM

私はまんまと騙されてブルーコンコルドから”逝き”ましたね。
惨敗のお陰で東京大賞典では買う気になれず、そんな時に限って圧勝しやがって・・。。と。。。
(´・ω・`;)

Posted by: はやひで | January 12, 2007 11:30 PM

JCダートはサンライズバッカスでしたので、
出遅れた時点で蚊帳の外でしたが(笑)

ブルーコンコルドは運も無かったかもしれませんね…
治郎丸さんはてっきりアロンダイトからだと思っていたので
ちょっとコメントしづらかったのですが…(汗

オッズ、新聞の印、いろいろな関係者のコメント…
決断を狂わせる誘惑にいつも負けてしまいますが(笑)
最近馬券を買うときは、最後は自分の選んだ結論だけを
信じて買うよう努力してます。
その馬券で負けても納得が行きますので(^^

Posted by: しゃち | January 12, 2007 11:44 PM

さとしさん

どの陣営も、心のどこかでは勝てる(かも)と思っているからこそ出走してくるのだと思います。

ただ、競馬の奥深さを知っているからこそ、謙虚な発言になるのではないでしょうか。

どれだけ勝てる調教師や騎手の勝率でも2割ですからね。

私は調教師や騎手など当事者の発言は、プロレスラーや格闘家のそれとは意味合いが違うと思っています。

そういう意味で、服部調教師のそれは、少し行き過ぎだったかなと思います。

まあ、馬券を買わなければいい話なのですが(笑)。

Posted by: 治郎丸敬之 | January 12, 2007 11:50 PM

はやひでさん

>そんな時に限って圧勝しやがって・・。。と。。。
→競馬って、得てしてそんなもんですよね~。

いくら自分が勝てると思っていても、勝てないときの方が多いということくらい、あれだけのベテラン調教師だったら身に染みていると思うのですが。

まあ、勢いで言っちゃったんでしょうけど。

Posted by: 治郎丸敬之 | January 12, 2007 11:52 PM

しゃちさん

確かにJCダートでのブルーコンコルドは運もなかったですね。

上手く立ち回ることが出来れば、3着はあったかも知れません。

でも、それが競馬なんですよね。

相変わらずブログ面白いですね~。

内田騎手の話が良かったかな。

私が地方競馬巡業をしていた頃は、ある程度売れていましたが、まだ彼にとっては修行中だったんですね。

中央と地方の間に垣根があること自体が古臭い。

まさに私もそう思います。

内田騎手を前にも増して好きになりました。

Posted by: 治郎丸敬之 | January 12, 2007 11:59 PM

デビュー前のマイネルスケルツィ、マイネルバシリコス、
今年のコンゴウダイオー・・・陣営が大口を叩いて
結果につながらなかった例は数多いですよね(^^;

ブルーコンコルドに関してはこのときの調教師の発言を聞いて
評価をグッと下げてしまいました。
東京大賞典を圧勝して次はフェブラリーS・・
今度はどういう発言をして、どういう結果につながるのか
楽しみです(笑)

速いペースで脚を削りあうようなマイル戦になれば
強いとは思うんですが・・・。
スローの上がり勝負になったら切れ負けも充分にありえそう。

どんな馬も他馬との兼ね合いの中にいる、と考えていますので
「絶対」はない、とその意味でも思いますね。
・・・ディープは別格でしたけど(^^;

Posted by: けん♂ | January 13, 2007 12:24 AM

サクラの境さんが懐かしいなぁ・・・。なんて思ったり。

姿勢としては馬を管理する側も、そして予想者である我々も、全てに客観視できなければ、その勝負は「負け」となるはずです。

「強気の弁」をどう受け止めるか?も、重要な競馬予想のうちなのでしょうね。

競馬における乱れ飛ぶ情報の整理というものは、ある程度個人の主観(競馬観)が確立されていないと、情報に踊らされてしまう結果となります。

情報をいかに整理していくか?

ここが重要な分岐点です。


Posted by: 江戸川 | January 13, 2007 01:37 AM

治郎丸さん

全くですね…
今日もタップリとその事を痛感してきましたデス(><

ブログのほう拝見して頂いてありがとうございます(^^
彼はおそらく中央には移籍しないと思います。
彼の願いは中央の短期免許制度を廃止して、
いつでもどんな騎手でも乗れるようにしてほしいと
いうことみたいですので。
内田騎手のことをこれからもぜひぜひ応援してください(^^

Posted by: しゃち | January 13, 2007 08:13 PM

でも、なんでJCダートは惨敗したのに、東京大賞典は楽賞しちゃったんでしょうね、競馬って奥が深いですね。

僕もこの服部調教師の話しを聞いて、境センセイを思い出しました。

Posted by: 和人 | January 13, 2007 10:20 PM

江戸川さん

サクラの境さんですね。

個人的には結構好きですよ、あの人。

昔は“ラッパ”とか“泣き”とか、よく言っていましたね。

今はそういう時代じゃないということですかね…

ひとつだけ競馬ファンに知っておいて欲しいことは、競馬で絶対という言葉を使ってはいけないということです。

絶対と思った時点で、それは絶対ではないはずですから。


Posted by: 治郎丸敬之 | January 14, 2007 01:53 AM

けん♂さん

>どんな馬も他馬との兼ね合いの中にいる、と考えていますので

そうですよね。

大口を叩くこと自体は悪いことではないのですが、競馬というスポーツを全体として捉えていれば、調教師の口から“絶対に勝てる”というニュアンスの発言が飛び出すことには違和感があります。

私もブルーコンコルドと服部調教師の今後が気になります(笑)

フェブラリーSはその辺りも見ものでしょうか。

Posted by: 治郎丸敬之 | January 14, 2007 01:57 AM

しゃちさん

>彼の願いは中央の短期免許制度を廃止して、
>いつでもどんな騎手でも乗れるようにしてほしいと
>いうことみたいですので。

うーん、そうなんですか。

なんて素晴らしい騎手なんでしょうか!

応援しないわけにはいきませんね。

実は中央のG1を勝ってくれるタイミングを、昨年は狙っていたんですよ。

安田記念のカンパニーは失敗しましたが。

これはカンでしかありませんが、内田騎手が中央のG1を勝つのは穴馬でと思っています。

Posted by: 治郎丸敬之 | January 14, 2007 02:02 AM

和人さん

お久しぶりです!

そこが競馬の奥深いところでしょうか。

コース、砂の質、距離、相手関係、展開などなど、ひとつとして同じレースはありませんからね。

JCダートは何度やっても、ブルーコンコルドは勝てなかったと私は思っています。

境センセイは楽しい人でしたよね。

Posted by: 治郎丸敬之 | January 14, 2007 02:05 AM

服部調教師のJCD時の発言は正確には覚えていないのですが、
確か「絶対に距離はもつ!!」というような内容ではあったと思います。
(うる覚えですいません・・・・・)

マイル以下のダート戦では無敵になりつつあるブルーコンコルドを、
2000m以上の距離のレースに使う必要はあまりなく、
これだけ強気の発言をしておきながら発言の責任は全くとらず、
この惨敗をきっかけにマイル以下の距離にしぼって使うということも充分にありえたなかで、
その後もこの発言を貫きとおし、東京大章典で見事に結果を出したということは、
かなり評価すべきではないかと思います。

弱気のコメントで勝つこともあれば、強気のコメントで負けることもあるので、
自分は陣営のコメントは常に疑ってかかるようにしていますw

Posted by: sousuke | January 15, 2007 11:26 AM

sousukeさん

距離の話もしていましたね。

私も距離は持つとは思っていたので、気になったのは、強気を超えたある種妄信的な発言でした。

おっしゃる通り、東京大章典で結果を出したのは素晴らしいことですが、それではなぜJCダートは負けてしまったのでしょうか?

忙しいマイル戦のあとの東京2100mというローテーションが最大の敗因だと、私は考えています。

sousukeさんはどうですか?

JCダートは負けるべくして負けたのであって、いずれにせよ服部調教師の発言は無責任だったのではないかと思います。

弱気にせよ強気にせよ、ちょっと無責任な発言が続いたように感じたので書いてしまいましたw

Posted by: 治郎丸敬之 | January 15, 2007 04:57 PM

JCDの敗戦理由は治郎丸さんとほぼ同じで、ローテーションだと思っています。
少し補足させていただくと、直前にマイル戦を走っていたことよりも、
この3年間で1200m~1600mの距離経験しかない馬が
いきなりG1の2100m戦に対応できるとはとても考えられませんでした。

東京大章典についても同じような見方をしていました。
フサイチコンコルド×トニービンという血統背景や、
折り合いに難が無い気性などで、距離をこなせる下地はあったとしても、
何回か距離を経験してからでないと中距離のG1では勝負にならないと考えていました。


まぁ、東京大章典については大外れだったわけですが・・・(苦笑)
1度中距離を経験しただけであそこまで適応してしまうとは
ただただ馬がすごったとしか言いようがありません。


治郎丸さんのおっしゃるとおり、JCDは負けるべくして負けたと思いますし、
「距離は持つ!!絶対に勝つ!!」という発言はあまりにも無責任だと思います。
この発言に自分も治郎丸さんと同じような違和感は感じました。

しかし、ここまで強気の発言をしておきながら
「やっぱりダメだったのでもう中距離は使わない。」
というようなことはG1に限らずよく見られることではないでしょうか。
次走で「距離は持つ」という部分のみではありますが、
この点を証明したということは、評価してもよいとは思います。


とはいえ、特にG1レースに出走する馬に関する調教師のコメントというのは
多くの人間がお金をかける参考にしているのだから、
このような無責任な発言は謹んでほしいものです。


まぁ、そういうことも考えて予想しないといけないから、
馬券予想はおもしろかったりもするのですが(笑)


駄文、長々と失礼いたしましたm(_ _)m

Posted by: sousuke | January 16, 2007 01:25 AM

sousukeさん

丁寧に書いていただいてありがとうございます。

私も全く持って同じ意見です。

2度目で結果を出してしまった馬、そして調教師もw凄いと思います。

個人的に大口を叩くこと自体は嫌いではありませんが、競馬って自分だけでするものではないので、そういう絶対的な表現が出てきたら疑ってかかるべきだと思っています。

Posted by: 治郎丸敬之 | January 17, 2007 09:39 PM

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