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全成績から分かること

ドリームパスポートは有馬記念で遂に4着と複勝圏内を外してしまったが、それまではデビュー以来12戦で【3・6・3・0】という、超が付くほどの堅実な走りを見せてきた。【山人の「適当」競馬予想】によると、1000円で複勝コロガシを始めると、デビューから有馬記念までで何と530万6700円になるらしい。ちなみに先日引退を発表した菊花賞馬ソングオブウインドは、デビューから菊花賞までの10戦を複勝でコロガし続けると120万2320円だそうだ。

それはさておき、実はこの【1着、2着、3着、それ以外】という全成績の数字列を見るだけで、その馬の大まかなタイプや強さを把握することができる。

全成績の数字列は大きく4つのタイプに分けられる。
1、逆三角形型
2、三角形型
3、ダイヤ型
4、砂時計型

1の逆三角形型とは、【5・3・2・1】のような数字列である。全成績を縦に並べたとして考えてほしい(通常、馬柱は縦に並んでいるので)。上が一番大きい数字が並んでいて、下に行くにつれ数字は小さくなってきている。こういう逆三角形の成績を残してきた馬は、紛れもなく強い馬である。勝ち切るだけの決め手を持っているし、どんな条件や相手だろうが、その力をいかんなく発揮できる馬である。こういう馬は安心して買ってよい。有馬記念でいうと、ディープインパクトが当てはまる。
Zenseiseki01_1
ディープインパクトの有馬記念時の馬柱(一番右が全成績)

2の三角形型とは、【1・2・3・5】のような数字列である。逆三角形型の正反対と考えてほしい。上の数字が一番小さくて、下に行くにつれ数字は大きくなる。こういう成績を残してきた馬は、あまり強くはない馬である。ほとんど勝ち負けに加われないことが多く、よほど条件や相手に恵まれた時だけ好走することが可能である。有馬記念でいうと、デルタブルースが当てはまる。
Zenseiseki02
デルタブルースの有馬記念時の馬柱(一番右が全成績)

3のダイヤ型とは【2・4・4・1】のような数字列である。上と下の数字に比べ、中の数字が大きいということである。つまり、大きく負けることはないのだが、イマイチ勝ち味に遅いというタイプの馬である。こういうタイプの馬は単勝で勝負するのは危険である。ただし、このような馬には将来性があって、なにかひとつのきっかけで勝てるようになると、あっという間に1の逆三角形のタイプに成ってしまうということもある。そのきっかけとは、休養を挟んで肉体的、精神的に成長したことであったり、脚質を変換したことであったりする。有馬記念でいうと、ドリームパスポートが当てはまる。
Zenseiseki04
ドリームパスポートの有馬記念時の馬柱(一番右が全成績)

4の砂時計型とは【4・1・2・4】のような数字列である。上と下の数字に比べ、中の数字が少ない(中が凹んでいる)ということである。能力は高い馬であるが、自分の型に持ち込めないと力を発揮できないタイプで、勝つときと負けるときがハッキリとしている馬である。ある程度の条件が揃えば、好走がかなり期待できる馬ということもある。有馬記念でいうと、ポップロックが当てはまる。
Zenseiseki03
ポップロックの有馬記念時の馬柱(一番右が全成績)

私は昔、地方競馬巡りをしていたことがあったが、初めて見る、横の関係も縦の関係も全く分からない馬たちのレースを予想する際に、このテクニックは重宝していた。1の逆三角形型は否が応にも人気になり、4の砂時計型は馬券的な妙味があり、3のダイヤ型は人気ほどの期待には応えてくれないことが多く、2の三角形型は馬券に絡まないことが多い。同じような人気になっていれば、1の逆三角形型→4の砂時計型→3のダイヤ型→2の三角形型の順で優先して本命を決める。

もちろん、全ての馬が単純に4つのタイプに区別されていくわけではなく、また各馬の成長によってタイプが変わってくることもあり得る。たとえば、ソングオブウインドは3のダイヤ型であったが、この馬は1の逆三角形タイプになっていくだろう(そう考えていた矢先に引退してしまったが)。それでも、その馬のその時点でのタイプや強さを、大まかではあるが把握することができるのである。おそらく誰もが意識する・しないに関わらず行っていることなのだとは思うが、極めてシンプルで数秒しかかからない作業なので、ぜひ一度試してみて欲しい。

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Comments

かなり研究されておりますね…
私もぜひ参考にさせていただきます(^^

複勝なのですが、ぢつは私のブログでも複勝企画を
考えていたり(--
ローリスクローリターンの複勝(時に単勝も)こそ、
競馬で勝ちを得るには最もよい買い方ではないかと
最近思いあたりました。

これからも馬券を当てるため、私もいろいろ試行錯誤しながら
頑張りたいと思います。
治郎丸さんの成果も楽しみにしておりますよ(^^

Posted by: しゃち | January 19, 2007 11:32 PM

治郎丸 さん

こんにちは、江戸川です。

なるほど~~の「ど」が長~くなってしまうほど関心しきりです。確かにおっしゃるとおり無意識の領域ですね。

ただ、それぞれの型が意味するのは馬の能力(タイプ)だけではなく、陣営が使ってきたレース条件の良し悪しや、馬の体調、相手関係、気性などなど、いろんな要素が複雑に絡み合って形成されているものと認識しております。

よって「強い馬」の逆三角形については異論はございませんが、その他の型の馬を括るには少し無理があるような・・・。

馬のタイプを大まかに分別するにはよい手段だとは思いますが、こと馬券(着順)というものとは別のような気がします。

最終的には人気とイコールの結論となるのでは?

それならば、全成績ではなくある程度レース条件を絞って型を形成させてみるのはどうでしょう?

馬も人間と同じように得意・不得意などありますし、突然変異みたいなケースも多々ありますからね。

いずれにしても競馬を何かで例えるのって難しいものです。

それに果敢にトライしている治郎丸さんのような人が好きだな。

以上。

Posted by: 江戸川 | January 19, 2007 11:38 PM

紹介していただきありがとうございますm(__)m
ちなみにこの成績の数値列は騎手の力を測るときに私はよく使ってます。当然1着>2着>3着とキレイに並んでいる騎手は一流騎手です。今週から復帰の武豊騎手が何勝するか、興味あるところですね。

Posted by: 山人 | January 19, 2007 11:45 PM

なるほど。
そういう考え方もあるんですね。
ふむふむ。
よく大井競馬場や川崎競馬場にも
遊びにいくんですが
このやり方は重宝しそうです!
お借りしまーす。

それとコメントありがとうございました!
今後も頑張っていきたいと思います。

Posted by: UPUP | January 20, 2007 12:12 PM

僕も以前コレに注目してました!^^
一つの指針というか目安になりますもんね。

それにしても相変わらず文章が上手いですよねぇ~。
説明が上手いというか・・・。憧れます(笑)

Posted by: たまバス | January 20, 2007 01:17 PM

しゃちさん

ミッションプレイシブルですね。

どの種類の馬券も、リスクとリターンの関係のバランスが違うだけで、一長一短があると思います。

でも、しゃちさんの実験(?)されようとしていることは面白いと思いますよ。

どのような結果が出るか、今から楽しみです。

お互いに色々と試行錯誤して楽しみましょう!

Posted by: 治郎丸敬之 | January 20, 2007 09:46 PM

江戸川さん

貴重なご意見ありがとうございます。

>それぞれの型が意味するのは馬の能力(タイプ)だけではな>く、陣営が使ってきたレース条件の良し悪しや、馬の体調、>相手関係、気性などなど、いろんな要素が複雑に絡み合って>形成されているものと認識しております。
→おっしゃる通りです。
様々なものが絡み合って、その馬の全成績を形成しているのですが、だからこそ全成績には意外とその馬の全てが凝縮されているのではということです。

その馬がどんな条件(ローテーション、馬場、相手関係)でも力を出し切る馬なのか、モロい部分を抱えている馬なのか、等等。

最終的には人気とイコールの結論となるのでは?
→これもおっしゃる通りです。
人気≒になります。
ただ、そうでない場合が盲点になったりもします。

もちろん、ある程度条件を絞って型を形成してみることも大切ですよ。

これも皆さん無意識にしろ、そうでないにしろ、やっていることなのかもしれませんが。

私がここで全成績を挙げたのは、とても乱暴で大雑把に感じられるかもしれませんが、ものすごく一瞬でその馬の人生が凝縮されている数列だからだと思ったからなんです。

でも、江戸川さんの突っ込みは、各論も総論も分かった上でのものなので、答え甲斐がありますねー。

江戸川さんは、相当に研究されていますもんね。

ありがとうございます。

Posted by: 治郎丸敬之 | January 20, 2007 09:57 PM

山人さん

そうですよね!

これは騎手にもほぼ応用できるんです。

騎手の場合は、勝率と連対率を使っちゃいますけど。

こんどエントリーに書こうと思います。

いやー、またいいネタもらいました。

Posted by: 治郎丸敬之 | January 20, 2007 10:00 PM

UPUPさん

バランスオブゲームの思い出は、すごく良かったですよ。

やはり、気持ちは文章に表れるんですね。

こっちまで熱くなって、思わずコメントしてしまいました。

Posted by: 治郎丸敬之 | January 20, 2007 10:02 PM

たまバスさん

ありがとうございます。

全成績は本当に大きな目安ですが、全く知らない競馬場に行って、全く知らない馬のレースを予想するときに役に立ちます。

そして、普段知っている馬たちだと、意識しなくなってしまって損をすることでもあります。

明日、スカイプにチャレンジしてみます。

Posted by: 治郎丸敬之 | January 20, 2007 10:05 PM

ポップロックなどの砂時計型についてあまり考えていなかった
ことに気付かされました。
「自分の型」
うーん、面白いですね。
私もこの件と騎手について一度調べてみようと思います。
(時間がかかりそうですが^^;)
人気馬を順当に勝たせる能力、
人気薄の馬を上位に飛び込ませてくる能力・・・
なんらかの意味のありそうなデータが取れたら
予想に利用できそうですよね(^^)

Posted by: けん♂ | January 21, 2007 12:42 AM

けん♂さん

けん♂さんの情報検索力には負けると思いますが、
私も私なりの切り口で書いてみようと思います。

砂時計型にも色々とあるのですが、
ポップロックは、「昔弱かったけど、ここに来てやけに強くなった型」ですね。

すいません、今作りました(笑)。

関係ないですけど、若駒Sを勝ったモチっていう馬、なんか癒されますね~。

Posted by: 治郎丸敬之 | January 21, 2007 12:57 AM

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