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ブルーコンコルドの本質はパワー

Jiromaru_21

今年初めてのG1レースがやってきました。有馬記念からわずか2ヶ月しか経っていないのですが、やっぱりG1レースはワクワクしますね。お互いに良いスタートが切れると良いですね。

ダートこそ日本の競馬風土と言われて、目からうろこでした。本当にそうですよね。ダートが日本の牝系を育てたんですよね。古い血統からフェブラリーSでの活躍馬が出るのも、当然といえば当然のことですね。

確かにここ最近は、古い血脈のこの牙城が外国勢のパワーとスピードによって崩されそうになっています。ここで食い止めるのか、それとも屈してしまうのか。そんな視点でこのフェブラリーSを見るのもまた面白いでしょう。

フェブラリーSはステップレースが多岐に渡ることもあって、今年もまさに多士済々のメンバーが揃いました。中でも1番人気に推されそうなのは、暮れの東京大章典を圧勝したブルーコンコルドですね。他馬と上がりが1秒も違う末脚を見せられては、新興勢力も見当たらないメンバーでは中心視されて当然です。どこから見ても短距離馬の体型ですが、マイルの距離は全く問題がないと思います。年齢を重ねた今となっては、かえってマイルくらいの距離の方が走りやすいでしょう。 追えば確実に伸びる馬なので、府中コースはうってつけですし、左回りが苦手ということは全くありません。ローテーションもいいですね。ガーネットSなどの短距離をステップに出走してきた馬は、府中のマイル戦とのギャップに戸惑いますが、2000mのレースからであれば、折り合いなど心配することがありません。

全ての条件が揃ったように見えますが、ひとつだけ心配なのはやはり馬場状態でしょう。 不凍剤の撒き方や、気温による砂質の変化によって、ダートの馬場状態も移り変わるものです。ルドルフおやじさんのおっしゃるように、35秒台前半の決着になってしまうと苦しいかもしれません。大井の東京大章典を圧勝したということは、イコール馬力型ということでもあります。 東京大章典を勝った馬がフェブラリーSになかなかつながらないのは、要求される条件が違うからではないでしょうか。唯一、東京大章典とフェブラリーSを勝ったのはゴールドアリュ-ルですが、実はこのフェブラリーSは中山競馬場で行われたものです。中山の1800mは上がりいらずと言われるように、パワーで押し切れるコース設定ですから。ブルーコンコルドはスピードがないわけではありませんが、本質はパワーで勝負する馬なので、馬場があまりにも軽くなるようであれば、この馬の良い面を生かしきれないということがあるかもしれませんね。

森厩舎からの3頭の中では、シーキングザベストを最上位に取ります。この馬はダートで堅実に駆けてきているように安定感もありますし、もちろんスピードにも溢れています。なかなか使い込めなかった馬ですが、6歳にして丈夫になってきたようです。前走の根岸Sでは、森調教師らしい、100%に仕上げない状態での出走でした。ここは勝負レースでしょうし、ビッシリと仕上げられてくれば、好勝負間違いなしの1頭です。若干行きたがる面があるので、マイルの距離はギリギリかもしれませんね。もし私がこの馬に騎乗するなら、いつもの位置取りから馬1頭か2頭分を下げて乗りますね。そして、追い出しを我慢すれば、最後まで伸びてくれるのではないでしょうか。前走もほとんど完璧なレースをしていますが、今回はさらに上手い乗り方が要求されますね。

平安Sを勝った上がり馬のメイショウトウコンは、本当に軽いダートに適性があるんですね。前走はヨーイドンの瞬発力勝負になりましたが、最後方から極上の切れ味でした。ダートの瞬発力勝負に強い馬というのは珍しいですが、この馬は芝ではなくて、やはりダートなのでしょうね。ただ、前走はある意味でハマッた感もあって、今回は同じようなレースにはならないはずです。厳しく激しいペースとなって、果たして最後は力強く抜け出てこれるでしょうか。

平安Sを1番人気で惨敗してしまったフィールドルージュの巻き返しもあるかもしれません。エンジンのかかりが遅い馬なので、前走のようなヨーイドンの競馬は合わなかったのでしょう。府中にコースが変わることは、この馬の末脚を生かすにはプラスに働くはずです。距離は伸びて良い馬だけに、マイルの距離が忙しすぎないかということが不安材料でしょう。ただ、前が引っ張ってくれて、差しが生きる展開になれば、この馬の台頭も十分にありえます。

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Comments

おはようございます。
そうですね。私もブルーコンコルドはパワー型と思います。
東京大賞典、南部杯、JBCスプリント。どれも馬力の要る地方の馬場なんですよね。
1年程前に東京1400Dで1分21秒台で走破しているのでスピードも一応は兼ね揃えていると思われますが、そのレースでも5着位に敗退していますから、本質的に東京1600Dはこの馬に向かないのでは無いか?というのが今の所の結論です。
確かに東京大賞典は強かった。それだけに馬券妙味も無くなりそうですし。。。。

Posted by: はやひで | February 15, 2007 08:32 AM

ニュースレター届きました!
手書きでうれしかったです。
5月のG1といえば、東京優駿競走ですね!(笑)

フェブラリーは一番人気が5年連続で勝っているので、
おそらく一番人気になるであろうブルーコンコルドは、
能力ポイントからみても勝つ可能性が50パーセントはあると思います。

ビッググラスはエル産駒の上がり馬ということで本当にこわいですね!(笑)

JCDの走りができればダイヤにもチャンスは十分にあると思います。
ダイヤが悲願のG1初勝利を達成したら、
できれば壁紙プレゼントをお願いします。

Posted by: さとし | February 15, 2007 11:22 AM

シーキングザベスト、フィールドルージュが狙い目・・
まったくの同意見で嬉しいです(^^)g
フィールドルージュに関してはルメール騎手の手腕にも
期待しています。ダイヤモンドSのトウカイトリックのように
ゴール前でキッチリとらえ切ってくれそうかな、と。

想定している構図は「直線での切れ味勝負」なので
先行粘りこみタイプのシーキングザダイヤ辺りが
3~4着候補。ブルーコンコルドは不発も充分にあるのでは?
と考えていますが・・・どうなるでしょうね?(^^;

拮抗した馬同士のぶつかり合い、面白いレースになったなぁ
と非常にワクワクしております(^^)/

Posted by: けん♂ | February 15, 2007 02:39 PM

こんばんはやす爺です。

ブルーコンコルドの東京コースでの成績が気になっていました、やはりパワー型ですね。フェブラリーで一応5,4着の実績もあるだけに完全無視は出来ないだろうとは思い、押さえにします。

私はシーキング2頭の内のどちらかを本命にとは考えています、心情的には条件戦から馬券でお世話になり続けたベストの方にしたいのですが、過去10年のデータで大きな不安材料があります。前走から距離延長組みの勝率、連対率、複勝率(3.4%、5.1%、11.9%)が共に短縮組みの約1/3と不振、ステップレース別の実績も東京大章典直行が16.7%、33.3%に対して根岸Sの方は6.3%、6.3%とここでも大きく負けており、データからはダイヤの方が優位に、勝ち切るまではとは思いますが。

今回はあくまで3連複の軸としてダイヤからの入ります。

Posted by: やす爺 | February 15, 2007 08:04 PM

はやひでさん

本質はパワーの勝った馬であることは間違いないでしょう。

ただし、力の要る馬場で走っている馬が、軽い馬場で走るのは、ある程度対応ができると思います。

その逆は難しいですが。

昔、井崎脩五郎さんが、いつも重いバットを振っているバッターが軽いバットに変っても心配はないという面白いことをおっしゃっていましたね。

まあ、東京大章典を圧勝してしまったので、馬券的妙味がないのが一番の問題でしょうか(笑)。

Posted by: 治郎丸敬之 | February 15, 2007 09:18 PM

さとしさん

ありがとうございます。

私なりのユーモアを楽しんでいただけましたでしょうか。

東京優駿ですね(笑)、はい。

ブルーコンコルドは能力の高い馬なので、時計うんぬんにかかわらず、勝ち負けになることは間違いないでしょう。

私もビッググラスには注目していますよ。

距離が伸びていい馬なので、前走の反動がなければ本命も考えますよね。

ダイヤの壁紙ですか‥

意外とファンが多いのは知っていますが、応募者がさとしさんを入れて数名ってことはないのでしょうかね‥(笑)

Posted by: 治郎丸敬之 | February 15, 2007 09:23 PM

けん♂さん

フィールドルージュはルメール騎手の手腕にもかかっていますよね。

私はハイペースの前崩れを想定しています。

瞬発力勝負になると、フィールドルージュは苦しいですよ。

トウコンあたりの出番になるかもしれませんね。

けん♂さんの詳細なレポートにも期待しています。

久しぶりのG1は、やっぱりわくわくしますねー。

現地に見に行きたい‥

Posted by: 治郎丸敬之 | February 15, 2007 09:28 PM

>前走から距離延長組みの勝率、連対率、複勝率(3.4%、5.1%、11.9%)が共に短縮組みの約1/3と不振
→面白いデータですね。
東京のマイル戦は字ヅラ以上にスタミナが必要とされますので、距離延長組は思いのほか苦戦を強いられます。

プラスに働くとすれば、距離が伸びて良い馬が、距離延長で臨んで来た場合だけでしょう(例えばビッググラスのように)。

そういう意味では、シーキングザベストは苦しいかもしれません。

ブルーコンコルドやダイヤの取捨は3連複を考えた場合、とても悩ましいですよね。

Posted by: 治郎丸敬之 | February 15, 2007 09:32 PM

そうですねぇ。重い馬場で勝ってて、かつ軽い馬場で好時計で勝っていたら推奨なんですが、勝ち切れて無いですよね。
時計勝負になりがちなフェブラリーSだとその辺りに懸念を感じます。

1400D戦でも早い時計では走ってるんですが負けてます。幸騎手が今年あまりパッとしていないのも気がかりです。

シーキングザベストは前走の負け方が嫌なのでダイヤの方を買いたいです。ビッググラスはエルコンの産駒なので狙います。

Posted by: はやひで | February 15, 2007 11:28 PM

はやひでさん

ブルーコンコルドはスピードに欠ける馬では決してないのですが、力の要る馬場の方が、より一層、良さが出ますよね。

その辺りが、G1レースでどう出るでしょうか。

私はベストは乗り方次第で上位はあると思っています。

またダイヤを武騎手がどう乗ってくるのか楽しみです。

それほど人気のない今回は、奇策で来るかもしれませんね。

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