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スペシャルな血統のマイネルスケルツィを狙う

Rudolf_24 →ルドルフおやじってどんな人?

年をとると集中力が続かなくなり、マイラーがスプリンターにシフトするというのはおもしろいですね。このおやじにはスッキリわかる話です。で、今年のオービスサマーダッシュの◎はルドルフおやじで決まりですか。

さて、1回目の手紙以来、このおやじ頭を抱え続けております。うーむ難しい!安藤Jが乗るということで、1番人気はおっしゃるようにプリサイスマシーンでしょうか。安藤Jは凄みのある騎手ですね。今はもう語られることは少なくなりましたが、福永洋一騎手は天才という言葉だけで語ることのできない、何か恐ろしいものを感じさせる騎手でした。ふたりの騎手を安易に比較するのは無礼ですが、最近の安藤Jの騎乗ぶりにも怖さを感じます。一長一短ある馬の集まった今回、騎手のサポートを最も多く受けられるのは、この馬に違いありません。

このおやじはキンシャサが高松宮で1着になるとずっと思っていたので、前走キンシャサに安藤Jを乗せたかったのですが、安藤Jはキンシャサではなくプリサイスを選択しました。ルドルフおやじと安藤Jは容易に比較できますな。プリサイスが高松宮を制する力をもっていると、安藤Jが教えてくれているような気がします??

プリサイスの祖母はグローバルダイナ(グロちゃんという愛称でした)です。牡馬と互角に戦える強い牝馬で、成長力もあり古馬になってもどんどん力をつけていきました。ただ、勝ちきれない面もあって、G1級の力はありながら歴史に名を残す馬にはなれませんでした。父のMトップガン産駒にも勝負弱い面は見られますね。血統からは好レースをして、入着するイメージが浮かびます。血筋に重きをおいて競馬を見ているおやじには◎を打ちにくい馬です。騎手は◎、血統は△という難しい馬ですね。

治郎丸さんの手紙を読んで、何度も何度も阪急杯のビデオを見ました。治郎丸さんは「間違っているかもしれません」と謙虚に書かれていましたが、そうじゃない。1番強い競馬をしていたのはフェニックスですね。おっしゃるように、確かなスプリントの力があるからこそなんでしょうね。それに内枠先行有利の新阪神コースで大外を追い込んで善戦する馬の能力は、かなり高いと見て間違いないでしょう。フェニックスは、今回も大外を追い込む競馬に徹するのでしょう。東京新聞杯でもこの馬はG1級の力をもっていることを示しました。今回のメンバーで、G1級の力があるのはこの馬だけだと思っています。ただ、配合にはやはりスプリントの力や素軽さを感じません。秋の天皇賞で狙ってみたいと思ったのは、母系にプリンスローズのクロスを見つけたからです。能力は◎、配合は△という難しい馬ですね。

エムオーウイナー陣営はシルクロードSを快勝したあと、オーシャンSを使うかどうか迷ったのでないでしょうか。オーシャンSは登録しただけで使いませんでした。細心の注意を払いながらG1に臨む陣営の意気込みが感じられます。フラワーパークの甥っ子でとても成長力のある血統です。体重も最近使うごとに増えているというのも好調の証と考えます。ただプリサイスやフェニックスと比較して、能力はどんなものなんでしょうか?臨戦過程は◎、能力は△という難しい馬ですね。

マイネルスケルツィこそ、馬体をじっくり見たい馬です。年明けに金杯を使っただけの臨戦過程は、ちょっとひっかかります。NHKマイルCを2番人気で負けたことから評価は下がっていますが、去年行われた3歳戦でもっともレベルの高かったきさらぎ賞の3着馬だったことを忘れたら痛い目に遭いそうです。

血統は5代母がスペシャルというスペシャルな血統です。ヌレイエフやらサドラーやらフェアリーKなどを輩出する母系には注目しておく必要がありますね。フェニックスと同様少々重い配合ですが、ナシュアのクロスがあるところが救いです。案外健闘するんじゃないかと思います。そういえばフェニックスの母父はフェアリーKでしたね。血統◎、臨戦過程△という難しい馬ですね。

アンバージャックは穴馬として虎視眈々と、何か狙っているような気がします。年明けを2走しましたが、1走目を-2kg、2走目を+12kgという馬体からは、1走目で仕上げておいて、2走目は試走代わりに使おうという陣営の意図を感じます。平坦コースは特に向いている馬だと思います。9歳馬アサカディフィートの活躍する、パラダイスクリーク産駒というのも不気味ですね。穴馬としては◎、能力は△というちょっと気になる馬です。

うーむ、うーむ。能力を考えるとプリサイス、フェニックス、スケルツィーの3強かなあ。このメンバーだと穴を狙う人も多いと思います。オッズはかなり割れるのではないでしょうか。不思議なことですが、こんなときは案外上位人気の馬で収まることも多いものです。このおやじも無理な穴狙いは危険かな、と思っています。

隊列は、スケルツィー、プリサイス、フェニックスの順でしょ。レースの結果は前と後ろをにらむ、プリサイスの安藤Jの仕掛けるタイミングに委ねられています。今回の高松宮記念の最大のみどころはゴール前300mでの安藤Jと武Jの駆け引きです。これは見ごたえありますよ。

穴馬と考えたTホットプレイは、週末の雨がいやですね。底力のあるPM、SF、MSには有利な雨だと思います。大穴はスリーアベニューにしておきます。去年はシラオキ復興年でしたよね。シラオキファンとしてほんの少しだけ1票を投じたいと思います。いや、こっちも迷う、アストニシメント系のサチノスイーティーもいるぞ、血統表にはブロケードの名前が見えます。雨の桜花賞で名牝、テンモンを下した馬です。雨の穴馬ならこれですね。

未だに、迷いに迷っています。迷うからこそ印は絞ります。
◎は母系と配合のよさと展開利を買って、Mスケルツィー
○はG1級の力をもっている、Sフェニックス
▲は騎手の馬を見る目を信頼して、Pマシーン
△はきりがないので打てません。
×は復活が待たれるアストニシメント系、Sスイーティー

プリサイス、フェニックス、スケルツィーの3強の三角買いを強めにおします。
4頭の3連複は少々。
今回は負けても納得のいくようにパドックはきちんと見たいと思います。

現在のランキング順位はこちら

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Comments

阪急杯は1400m内回りなので、先行有利では無かったのでは無いでしょうか?それでも4コーナーで上手く立ち回れず大外を回したのにあの着差というのは、スズカフェニックスの地力を見た気がします。ただ、雨と中京という事で今回は2~3着候補程度と軽視予定です。
有力視してた馬が全て内外枠に偏ったので、少し検討し直す必要が生じました。また、時間があれば最終結果を送りたいと思います。

Posted by: はやひで | March 24, 2007 10:42 AM

はやひでさん、こんばんは。

雨ですねえ。

八大竜王、雨止めたまえ!
と、古人は祈ってました。

内外不問の馬場になると、馬場適性と自力が問われますね!

お互いの健闘を祈りましょう。

Posted by: ルドルフおやじ | March 24, 2007 05:47 PM

はい。健闘をお祈りします。
さて、雨は今の所止んでますね。中京の水はけから言えば「やや重」程度になるかも知れませんね。

但し、上がり3Fはかかりそうな気がするので極端な追い込み馬は拒絶しちゃいます。そこで内外の枠も考えて
◎シーズトウショウ
○プリサイスマシーン
▲スリーアベニュー
△マイネルスケルツィ
×スズカフェニックス
×サチノスィーティ
てな感じで逝きますー。

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