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妖馬ゴールデンダリアの可能性に賭けてみましょう。

Rudolf_39

お手紙ありがとうございます。ダービーウィークもあと3日、1年の戦いの締めくくりもいよいよ近づきました。もう1週間ダービーウィークが続けばなあ、なんて夏休みの終わりが近づいた子供みたいなことを思っています。

お手紙にあった騎手のお話を興味ぶかく読ませていただきました。なるほど謙虚さを忘れた騎手がダービーを勝てるわけはありませんね。治郎丸さんらしい言葉でとてもよかった。

治郎丸さんはFホウオー、ヴィクトリー、ウオッカの3頭を上位と見てるんですね。ここにいろんな皮肉やジンクスがあったり、人間模様が垣間見えたりしてワクワクするというよりもドキドキして見守るダービーになりました。そこにもってきて東京は金曜から雨なんですね。ああいやだ、いやだ。これはおやじ語でえーぞ、えーぞという意味なんですな。

FホウオーのトレーナーはギムレットやカメハメハでNHKマイルCからダービーという、世間をあっと言わせる積極的なローテを組んだ松田師ですね。FホウオーやDスカーレットには実に緻密で慎重なローテを考えているようですね。Fホウオーに皐月賞トライアルをすべてパスさせたのはダービーだけは獲るという強い気持ちの現れのようにも思えます。好感のもてる使い方です。

皐月賞を見るかぎりFホウオーはこの世代のなかでは文句なしに強い馬ですね。ダービーはこの馬が勝つか負けるかと考えて印を打ちたいと思います。まず皐月賞の前に唱えた、Fホウオー=Mサムソン説ですが、あれ撤回しておきますわ。ホウオーはやはり父方のグレイソブリンの影響が大きな、神経質で天才肌の馬ですね。サムソンはラップとラップの隙間で類まれな闘争心をみせる猛者ですが、ホウオーにはそんな強さがちょっと欠けているような気がします。

皐月賞では前半で敢えてポジションを下げて追い込むといういささか強引とも思える作戦をとりました。安藤騎手はこの馬の末脚を信じているんですね。この乗り方はラジオN杯でも実は試されていました。先行して押し切るというレースもできる馬だと思いますが、ここという勝負どころでは脚をためて末脚を活かす作戦を採るということなんでしょう。安藤騎手はダービーでも追い込んでくるはずです。

馬の力とローテの緻密さを考えるとFホウオーがダービー馬になる可能性は高いと思います。心配なのは展開ですね。皐月賞のあの末脚をみた他の有力馬の騎手は手をこまねいてはいないでしょう。治郎丸さんのおっしゃるように、まさに安藤騎手の腕の見せ所です。もう1つの心配。Fホウオーが目いっぱいのレースをしたのは皐月賞で2度目だったと思うんです。1度目はラジオN賞です。そこでデビュー2戦目のヴィクトリーや休養明けのNマースに際どい勝負に持ち込まれています。この辺りにFホウオーのひ弱さを見てとれないでしょうか。ダービー馬に限りなく近いところにいる、負ける可能性のある馬。これがおやじのFホウオーの見立てです。ならばよし、負けるほうに賭けるとしよう。

ウオッカについては正直言って走ってみないとわかりませんね。あの角居師がオークスを見送ってダービーに挑戦するんだから、きっと勝算はあるんでしょうね。チトセホープはオークスからの連闘でしたが、ウオッカは十分に余裕をもって調教を積んでいます。角居師は今年の牡馬ならいけると踏んでいるのかも知れません。楽しみなダービー挑戦ですね。

クラシックが始まる前、おやじは桜花賞はウオッカ、樫はスカーレットと予想してました。ウオッカは京都コースで切れに切れる馬なので、ちょっと東京2400Mは不安かな、というわけでした。それに黄菊賞(1800M)でMソリストというそこそこの力をもった牡馬に負けてますね。JFに向けた調整過程での敗北だったとは思いますが、現に牡馬に負けているのは気にはなります。善戦間違いない最強牝馬ですが、突き抜けるか、と問われればちょっと微妙だと答えるしかありません。

ヴィクトリーは強い馬ですよ。新馬戦を経て2戦目にしてFホウオーを苦しめているんですからね。そして新馬戦での圧勝振りはクラッシックに欠かせない魅力のある勝ち方だったと思います。それにしてもかつての欧州最強牝馬、サンプリンセスの血統が日本の血で根付くとは本当にすばらしいことですねえ。ついでながら、ユーザーフレンドリーの血統も日本で栄えるといいですね。ダービー当日は皇太子殿下のご来場が予定されているそうです。そこでヒラボクロイヤルに注目している方もいらっしゃるそうですが、とんでもない、ヴィクトリーの母方にある、プリンスとプリンセスを見ればヴィクトリーがご下賜を賜るはずでありまする。再度この馬がFホウオーを撃破してもおかしくはありますまい。

治郎丸さんの4番手はヒラボクロイヤルですか。ヒラクボロイヤルと言い違えるのはボクの頭が悪いからです。おっしゃる通り、この馬成長してますね。お手紙でこの馬がハードルの稽古をしていたと初めて知りました。ハードル帰りの馬を狙えというのは古風な馬券作戦ですが、治郎丸さんはその辺りの理屈を上手に説明してくれましたね。ボクはマルゼンスキーの一族でもっと成長するかもしれません。しかし、この馬が強いところをみせた青葉賞のメンバーはやや手薄なメンバーだったのではないでしょうか。中に将来の福島記念馬ホクトスルタンという立派な馬はいましたが・・・。おやじはこの馬を買うなら、休養明けでもFホウオーを追い込んだナムラマースを狙いたいと思いマース。前走惨敗で狙いごろですよ。よい馬体とよい配合、それに使いながら体重が増えてるというのも逞しく映ります。

今年のダービートライアル2戦は、なんだか出がらしのような感じがしました。しかしただ1頭、ゴールデンダリアには目を奪われました。かかり気味に先行したのにもかかわらず、33秒台の末脚をくりだしたレースぶりにはおっと言わせるものがあったと思います。これも強い馬です。先行してよい脚を使えるというのは最近のダービーを勝つ最も大切な能力です。ひょっとしてこの馬Fホウオーを負かせる力を秘めているかもしれません。

ダリアの母父はNテーストですね。四白流星は貴公子の印、左後肢一白は名馬の証、と昔言いましたが、Nテーストは女の子には人気の出ないタイプの馬でしたね。墓標づら、なんていって顔面を覆うような流星の垂れる顔をしてました。おまけに短い脚。たしかダリアにもこんな流星があったような?「妖馬ゴールデンダリア」とでも渾名しておきましょうか。もしダリアがNテーストの本質を受け継いでいるとすれば、2400Mは少し長すぎる距離かもしれませんが、リアルシャダイの一族ということで奥行きのある血統にはちがいありません。馬体重が減っているのが少し心配ですが、思い切ってこの魅力ある馬の可能性に賭けてみましょう。主戦の柴田騎手もこの馬にいかにもお似合いです。

おどろおどろしい07年ダービーは墓標に自らの栄光を刻むという皮肉な馬ゴールデンダリアの優勝で幕を閉じるのではないでしょうか。ゴールデンダリア、いわく言いがたい怪しい響きをもつ馬名ですね。

名残おしい1年ではありますが、しめくくりの印をば。
◎ゴールデンダリア
○ヴィクトリー
▲フサイチホウオー
△ナムラマース
☆ウオッカ

追伸1 流石にダービー、印がいくつあってもたらない。上の印はホウオーを負かせ
る力をもった馬ということです。

追伸2 ヒットトップガンは今週レースにでるのでしょうか。未勝利戦も残りわずか
となりました。

現在のランキング順位はこちら

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Comments

ダリアはソエがどうのこうのと言ってるのが気に食わないですねぇ。勝ちっぷりも若干微妙。強いんですがね。ノーザンテースト色が強そうで2000m位までの馬ってイメージがあります。押さえでは買いたいですが。
柴田善「そこそこの馬に乗れる時のダービーはやはり楽しみ」ってあんた”そこそこ”って言い方は無いやろ?!と思うんですがー。

魅力的な馬が多すぎるのでホウオーを1番目の軸。2番目の軸として1着まであり得る軸としてジャーニーを考えます。2着まであり得る軸としてオーラとナムラマース辺りを候補にしておきます。
あくまで競馬エイト「攻めの吉田」よりは攻めて3連単フォーメーションで行きますよ。
⑮⇒⑧⑭⑪⇒⑧⑪⑭厚めに
⑮⇒⑧⑭⑪⇒③④⑨⑫⑰⑱(買いすぎ)
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Posted by: はやひで | May 27, 2007 01:23 AM

はやひでさん、おはようございます。

ダービーの朝、早起きして身を清めております。

ジャーニーですか。確かに東京S杯では際立ったレースぶりを見せてくれましたね。今回は人気がありませんね。怖い一頭です。

さてどんな結末になるのか、ゲートが開くのが楽しみですね。

Posted by: ルドルフおやじ | May 27, 2007 04:58 AM

ルドルフおやじ様、初めまして皐月2着馬は血統からは、買えませんか?100万円程度の馬ですし。
馬券は激しく買いたいのですけど。

Posted by: gonta | May 27, 2007 09:36 AM

gontaさん、はじめまして。

皐月賞2着馬、というのは結構名馬がそろっているんです。

ツェッペリンも強い馬かもしれません。

100万円の馬だったんですね。

この馬、おやじが掴みかねている馬なんです。すみません。

底力のある配合で印を打とうかどうか、迷いましたが結局中山コース向きかなあと判断して印は打ちませんでした。

さて吉とでるか凶とでるか。

ところでジミーページは元気かなあ。

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