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キーンランドCの分析

サマースプリントシリーズの第4戦として、平成18年に重賞に格上げされたレース。2週間後に行われるセントウルSにはG1クラスのスプリンターが出走してくる以上、スプリントシリーズの事実上の最終決戦となる。

■1■スタミナに支えられた切れ味が必要
重賞に格上げされる以前は、逃げ・先行抜け出しが決まり手のほとんどであった。しかし、クラスが上がったことや多頭数になったことで、道中のペースが上がり、「1200m以上のスタミナ」と「切れ味」が要求されることになった。本質的には逃げ、先行馬に有利なコースだが、このレースに関しては、マイラー寄りの差し馬を狙ってみるのも面白い。

■2■牝馬の活躍
第1回である昨年は、牝馬が上位(ワンツースリー)を独占した。ゴール前直線が平坦で266mと短いため、一瞬の切れ味を要求されるレースになり、牝馬にとっては有利なレースになるのである。この時期の札幌競馬場の芝は、洋芝とはいえ、まだそれほど重くなっていないため、函館で活躍できたパワータイプの牡馬にとっては厳しいレースとなる。

■3■札幌1200m
向こう正面を延長したポケットからのスタート。最初のコーナー(3コーナー)までの距離は406mと長く、オープン以上のクラスであればペースは速くなりがち。そして、3~4コーナーは緩やかなスパイラルコースであるため、ここで差を詰めるのは難しい。だからこそ、差し馬にとっては、最後の直線(266m)で差し切るだけの一瞬の切れ味が要求されるのである。この時期は馬場の内外で大きな差はなく、内外のトラックバイアスはないが、このレースに限っては、ハイペースをスムーズにレースが運べる分、若干外枠が有利か。

追記
キーンランドCの見解、有力馬情報に関しては、メルマガ「馬券のヒント」にて配信させていただきます。日曜日の9時までにご登録いただければ、今回の配信に間に合うはずですので、もしよろしければご登録ください。→メルマガ詳細はこちら

メルマガ「馬券のヒント」へは、利用規約をご一読の上、以下のフォームからご登録ください。


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Comments

ローレルゲレイロが出てくるんですね(笑)
ダービーはさすがに長かったようですが、
基本的なギア性能は評価しているので、
ここでも期待しています。
ただ、このメンバーなのであって3着ですかね。

Posted by: さとし | August 25, 2007 08:44 PM

さとしさん

そうですね。

マイルまでなら相当にシブトイ馬ですよね。

末脚勝負の流れになった時は、切れ負けするでしょうけど。

この後はセントウルSに行くのでしょうか、それとも…。

Posted by: 治郎丸敬之 | August 25, 2007 09:01 PM

お久しぶりです。
ローレルゲレイロの話題になっていたので食いついてみます。

ローレルゲレイロはいつも応援はしているのですが、
好位から抜群の手ごたえで抜け出したところを
何かに交わされて2着になるイメージしか持てません(苦笑)

サマースプリントSはほとんど牝馬が勝っていることや、
今回のエントリーにある牝馬が有利という傾向をふまえて
キーンランドCはローレルゲレイロから出走している全牝馬へ流すという
節操の無い馬券で楽しみたいと思いますw

Posted by: sousuke | August 25, 2007 11:31 PM

sousukeさん

いらっしゃいませ。

ローレルゲレイロは最後まで諦めない頑張り屋ですが、なかなか勝ち切れませんねぇ。

まさに典型的なキングヘイロー産駒というところでしょうか。

サマーシリーズは平坦コースで行われますので、どうしても牝馬が強いですよね。

今回も末脚勝負の流れになれば、ローレルゲレイロは差し切られてしまうのかもしれません。

そういった意味では、sousukeさんの馬券は理にかなっていると思います(笑)。

Posted by: 治郎丸敬之 | August 25, 2007 11:57 PM

 こんにちわ 通りすがりです。
オーストラリアに飛び火した馬インフルエンザの行方が心配です。

Posted by: 通りすがり | August 26, 2007 03:47 AM

通りすがりさん

こんにちは。

返事が遅くなりましてスイマセン。

オーストラリアに飛び火したみたいですねぇ。

あんまりいい加減な管理をしていると、他の国にも迷惑をかけてしまいますよね。

今週は開催するべきだったのでしょうか…

Posted by: 治郎丸敬之 | August 26, 2007 08:38 PM

こんばんわ。
いつも楽しく読ませていただいています。

久々にコメントさせていただきます。

この時期の札幌芝1200mは、明確に
内枠有利な傾向があるのではないでしょうか??

半月前に調べてみた結果です。

http://d.hatena.ne.jp/yoshi-knee/20070807


Posted by: yoshimura | August 27, 2007 12:08 AM

yoshimuraさま

おはようございます。

さすがですね。

おっしゃるとおり、全体的には札幌1200mは内枠有利です。

もう少し開催が進んでも、同じでしょう。

これは、逃げ・先行馬にとって有利なコースであることと関係がありますよね。

ただ、私がここで外枠が若干有利としたのは、キーランドCは札幌の1200mで行われる唯一の重賞であり、他のレースに比べ多頭数でペースが上がると見たからです。

つまり、外からスムーズに行けた馬の方が、最後まで脚を伸ばしやすい(騎手にとっても乗りやすい)かなと考えたからです。

あくまでも、キーンランドC限定ということですね。

ちょっと舌足らずな部分がありましたので、修正しておきます。

yoshimuraさんに教えていただいたデータは、これからも参考になりますし、他の札幌1200mのレースで実に有効だと思います。

こういうやりとりはとても嬉しく思います。

ありがとうございました。

Posted by: 治郎丸敬之 | August 27, 2007 10:15 AM

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