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このスピードについて来れるか?

これほどまでの情報量を誇る競馬ブログが他にあるだろうか。月別のエントリー数が約90という驚異的な数字である。つまり、平均して1日になんと3回は記事が更新されていくことになる。普段の重賞は、各馬分析、パドック診断、展開分析から予想→回顧と流れ、さらに新馬戦、海外競馬と、その情報網は多岐に渡る。とにかく有益なデータの量がハンパではないスピードで更新されていくのだ。

「けいけん豊富な毎日」
Keikennhouhunamainiti
*ちなみにタイトル「けいけん豊富な毎日」の「けい」は、けん♂さんの奥様であるけい♀さんの「けい」だそうです。

特に面白いと思うのは、騎手の能力値のデータである。騎手の能力を示すデータとして、勝率、連対率、複勝率というものが一般的には挙げられる。しかし、騎手によって騎乗を依頼される馬の質にはかなり差があるため、騎手の腕が正確には反映されないという面もある。そこで、管理人のけん♂さんは、さらに細かくデータを追って行き、以下の数字に辿り着いた。

・複勝圏支持率(いい馬に乗っている騎手)
・複勝圏支持達成率(3番人気以内の馬を3着以内にキチッと持ってくる信頼度)
・1着率(3番人気以内に推された場合のうち、1着が占める割合)
・穴馬率(4番人気以下の馬を3着以内に持ってくる豪腕度)

これらの数字を用いることによって、「いい馬に乗っているのだから勝率が高くて当たり前」という要素を極力排除することに成功したのである。もちろん、上の率(数字)は日々刻々と変化していくものなので、常に追っていく必要がある。そんな私たちの悩みにも、管理人のけん♂さんは身を削って(笑)応えてくれる。ある一定の期間ごとに、これらのデータを更新して、騎手たちの好不調を伝えてくれるのだ。何とありがたいブログであろうか。

■騎手の能力値の最新データはこちら
http://90884.blog64.fc2.com/blog-entry-1294.html

最後に言っておくが、この「けいけん豊富な毎日」は、馬券を当てるということにこだわったデータが豊富なのである。私が驚かされたのは、大荒れの決着になった今年のNHKマイルC(ピンクカメオ→ローレルゲレイロ→ムラマサノヨートーで3連単973万9830円)を、根拠の厚いデータを用いてかなりの確率で予測していたということだ。このデータは今後も使えるので、ぜひ見て覚えておいていただきたい。

■競馬ブログ「けいけん豊富な毎日」はこちらから
http://90884.blog64.fc2.com/
(今週の札幌記念のデータも満載です)

現在のランキング順位はこちら

|

Comments

むり!

例えるなら、
バーデンバーデンCのテン争いに巻き込まれるぐらいのスピードなので、
条件馬の私は半日で浦島太郎。d( ̄◇ ̄)b

Posted by: あらた | August 16, 2007 05:42 PM

ご紹介ありがとうございます(^^)
ちょうど来週辺りに騎手データの更新をしようと
考えていたところです(笑)

今週は馬インフルエンザ(こんな時期に!)の影響で
開催が危ぶまれたようですが無事なんとか開催してくれる
みたいでデータがまた山積する・・と(爆)
がんばって更新していきますのでどうぞよろしく
お願いします(^^)/

騎手データですが、重賞と平場、芝とダート、
距離別、競馬場別にソートできるようになったら
もっと有益なデータになるだろうなぁ・・と
考えていますが・・・何分にも手入力なもので
労力を考えると気が遠くなりそうなんですよね(^^;

来年までにいい方法を考えてみます。

※今朝方パソコンのモニターが壊れてしまいました。
 一日15時間以上も使っていれば寿命も短くなりますね(笑
 馬券を当てて元を取らないと・・・(^^)

Posted by: けん♂ | August 16, 2007 06:47 PM

あらたさん

おはようございます。

無理ですよね~(笑)

レッツゴーターキンが勝った天皇賞秋並みのハイペースなので、紹介しているうちに私も遅れてしまいました。

それから、最近うちの子がやけに人見知りをするようになって困っています。

Posted by: 治郎丸敬之 | August 17, 2007 10:13 AM

けん♂さん

おはようございます。

騎手データの更新、いつも楽しみにしております。

馬インフルエンザには驚きましたね。

個人的にはG1レースが中止になったら困るので、今の時期なら無理をせずに万全を喫して欲しいと思います(笑)。

>重賞と平場、芝とダート、
>距離別、競馬場別にソートできるようになったら
→確かにそうですね。

でも、今のままでも十分に有効だと思いますよ。

あまり細かく取ると、逆に分かりにくくなったりするものですし…

ぜひ今週は札幌記念を当てて、パソコンを新調してくださいね~。

予想楽しみにしております。

Posted by: 治郎丸敬之 | August 17, 2007 10:17 AM

馬インフルエンザで開催中止どころか、メイショウサムソンも感染していたとかで、凱旋門賞も危うい感じですね。

しかし、夏にインフルエンザというのも何か解せないというか、やるせないというか?何なんでしょうね。

ま、感染しても死に至る事は無いのと、人に感染しないというのが不幸中の幸いでしょうか?

人に感染するからと言って、競走馬が全て薬殺される様な事があれば心が非常に痛みますから・・・。

札幌記念は遅れて実施されるのでしょうかねぇ・・。。

Posted by: はやひで | August 17, 2007 06:36 PM

はやひでさん

メイショウサムソンも感染していたんですか…

私もこんなこと初めてですので、
今後どうなるのか全く分かりません。

おっしゃるとおり、どの馬もまたいつもの生活に戻れるようにしてあげて欲しいですね。

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