« 夏負けしている馬、していない馬 | Main | 美しいレース »

クイーンSの分析

札幌開催の開幕を飾る牝馬限定の重賞レース。平成12年からは開催場所が札幌に替わり、3歳馬と古馬の混合戦となった。秋華賞、エリザベス女王杯、そして天皇賞秋と秋のG1シリーズへとつながっていくレベルの高い一戦。

■1■スロー必至で先行馬有利
過去7回の脚質別の成績は以下のとおり。
逃げ   【4・0・0・4】 連対率57%
先行   【3・2・4・17】 連対率19%
差し   【0・5・2・30】 連対率14%
追い込み【0・0・1・19】 連対率0%

逃げ馬の連対率が57%という驚異的な数字だけではなく、逃げ、先行馬以外から勝ち馬が出ていない。とにかく前に行けなければ勝負にならない。

これだけ先行した馬に有利になる理由として、札幌1800mのコース形状が挙げられる。スタートしてから1コーナーまでの距離が185mと短すぎて、かえってポジション争いがなく、スローペースになる。そして、コーナーが4つもあるため、後続がなかなか差を詰めることが出来ないまま3コーナーに突入してしまう。さらに、ゴール前直線も266mしかなく、平坦であることも手伝って、前が止まらない。よほどジョッキーたちが意識して早めに動かない限り、前残りのペースになることは避けられないだろう。

また、札幌競馬場は洋芝100%の芝コースであって、パワーだけではなく底力とスタミナが必要とされる。しかし、このレースに限って言えば、開幕週ということもあって馬場がほとんど傷んでおらず、まず何よりも勝つためには先行できる軽快なスピードが要求される。

■2■4歳馬有利
3歳馬  【1・1・3・12】 連対率12%
4歳馬  【5・2・1・21】 連対率24%
5歳馬  【1・4・3・25】 連対率15%
6歳以上 【0・0・0・11】 連対率0%

競走馬としてのピークが短い牝馬の別定戦である以上、最も充実するはずの4歳馬の活躍が目立つのは当然のこと。5歳馬はほとんどの馬が峠を越してしまっていて、3歳馬は未完成のこの時期に古馬と3kg差で戦うのはなかなか厳しい。もちろん個体差はあるが、この傾向はクイーンSがこの時期に行われる限り続いていくはず。

■3■内枠有利
前述のとおり、道中がスローで流れる可能性が高いのであれば、当然のことながら内枠が有利になる。1コーナーまでの位置取りは枠順によって決まることも多いので、逃げ・先行馬は是が非でも内枠を引きたい。ロスなく好位を確保できた馬にこそ、勝つチャンスが訪れる。

追記
クイーンSの見解、有力馬情報に関しては、メルマガ「馬券のヒント」にて配信させていただきます。日曜日の9時までにご登録いただければ、今回の配信に間に合うはずです。→メルマガ詳細はこちら

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Comments

シェルズレイがまた暴走しそうですね(笑)
アサヒには短く、キッスには長い距離なので、
イクスキューズに期待しようと思います。

Posted by: さとし | August 11, 2007 11:34 PM

さとしさん

こんばんは。

夏休みボケしている治郎丸です。

圧倒的に先行馬なコースですが、シェルズレイの暴走に期待がかかるだけに、難しいレースになりそうです。

私はハレンチビキニいやフレンチビキニという馬に注目しています(笑)。

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