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メイショウサムソンは良馬場でこそ

Jiromaru

先日の手紙の続きになります。

ダイワメジャーの不安点は、これはよく挙げられていることですが、精神的な疲労です。サラブレッドの精神的なピークが続くのは、およそ1シーズン、長くて2シーズンだと私は思っています。G1レースのような激しいレースを連戦すると、サラブレッドは肉体的にだけではなく精神的にも消耗します。サラブレッドが走らなくなってしまう原因は、肉体的なものよりも、精神的なものが大きいですね。いわゆる“燃え尽き”ということです。燃え尽きてしまった馬の特徴として、ゴール前での踏ん張りが利かなくなります。レースで最も苦しい最後の叩き合いでは、他馬に抜かれまいとする気持ちが何よりも大切になります。燃え尽きて、気持ちが萎えてしまっている馬は、あっさりと負けてしまいます。肉体的には走られるので好走はするのですが、最後の詰めのところで、体ひとつふたつ前に出ることが出来なくなるからです。

昨年の秋シーズンのダイワメジャーには鬼気迫る強さがありました。ルドルフおやじさんと同じ意見で、もしジャパンカップに出走していたらディープインパクトを最後まで苦しめたはずだと思っています。距離が長かった有馬記念でも3着と走っていますし、まさにこの馬にとってのピークのシーズンでした。そして、今年の春も立派な走りを見せてくれましたね。ドバイではアドマイヤムーンに負けてしまいましたが、3着の成績は立派だと思いますし、安田記念は楽勝でした。長い目で見ると、3歳の皐月賞をも勝っているのですから、本当に素晴らしい馬です。けれども、生涯最高の出来であった昨年以上の走りが、また出来るかというと疑問です。精神的な燃え尽きが、最後の最後でダイワメジャーの脚色を鈍らせるような気がします。

3強の中では、これといった不安点がないのがメイショウサムソンです。この夏は、凱旋門賞への挑戦プランもあって、放牧に出されず厩舎で過ごしました。宝塚記念の疲れも癒えて、さほど馬体を緩めることなく調教を続けてきました。馬インフルエンザに罹ったとはいえ、幸いにしてほとんど調教を休ませていませんし、調整の狂いという点では全くといってよいほど心配はないでしょう。この秋は3戦(天皇賞、ジャパンカップ、有馬記念)する以上、今年の春シーズンのことを考えても4戦はしたくないはずで、この天皇賞秋から始動するのが妥当だと思います。気持ちで走る馬なので、休み明けもほとんど問題ないですし、むしろゆったりと余裕を持って調整してこられたのではないでしょうか。

ひとつだけこの馬の不安点を挙げるとすれば、道悪になることです。この週末は雨が降る可能性があるとされていますので、もし道悪になった場合、この馬にとっては厳しいレースとなるでしょう。これは結構誤解されていることですが、メイショウサムソンは決して道悪が得意な馬ではありません。力の要る荒れ馬場は得意ですが、どちらかというと道悪は苦手な部類に入るのではないでしょうか。

私も意外に思ったので覚えているのですが、確かきさらぎ賞の時、石橋騎手が「こういう馬場は苦手なので、良いところを選んで走らせた」と語っていました。能力の高い馬なので、多少の渋った馬場ならばこなしてしまいますが、道悪までなってしまうとどうでしょうか。宝塚記念は、早く動いたこともありますが、道悪だったことも大きな敗因だったと思います。メイショウサムソン陣営としては、是非とも良馬場でやりたいはずです。事前に予想をするだけに、当日の馬場を把握することはなかなか困難ですが、雨が降って道悪になるようであればメイショウサムソンも苦しいのではないでしょうか。

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Comments

こんばんは。
あくまで血統的な実績でメイショウサムソン個体では
違う可能性があるのですが
オペラハウス産駒の複勝圏率は
良馬場 24.3%
稍重  22.7%
重   31.9%

というようになっています。
馬場が湿るのは得意ではないが、湿り切って重馬場にまで
なると得意になる・・・?!
わかりにくい内容ですが、重馬場での複勝圏率には
侮れないものがある感じです。

雨の影響は怖いですね。
宝塚記念の再現になるのか、それとも・・・。

雨で一番困るのはアドマイヤムーン・・というより
岩田騎手になるのではないかと考えています。
どこで仕掛けてくるんでしょうね?
騎手同士の駆け引きも非常に楽しみです(^^)

Posted by: けん♂ | October 26, 2007 12:33 AM

けん♂さん

こんばんは。

そうですよね、オペラハウス産駒は確かに時計が掛かる方が良いので馬場が重くなった方がいいですよね(やや重は少し悪いのかぁ)。

だからこそメイショウサムソン重馬場得意説が流れているのでしょうが、私は断然良でこそだと思っています。

というか、石橋騎手も結構色んなところで言っていると思うのですが、何でみんな聞かないのだろう?

石橋騎手の言うことは説得力ないのですかねぇ(笑)

アドマイヤムーンは宝塚記念を見ても、あの走り方を見ても、重馬場は鬼だと思いますよ。

私も岩田騎手の仕掛けどころ、そして位置取りには注目しています(^^)

本当に楽しみです!

Posted by: 治郎丸敬之 | October 26, 2007 12:59 AM

ども。お久しぶりです。

「メイショウサムソンは良馬場でこそ」「荒れ馬場は得意だけど重馬場は苦手」とは目からうろこの説ですね!

確かにメイショウサムソンの成績を振り返ると、重馬場は2歳時に萩Sで一度走っていますが、
この時はフサイチリシャールに1秒近く離されており、
次走、良馬場の東スポ杯ではフサイチリシャールとの差を2馬身半まで詰めているので、
馬自身の成長もあるとはいえこの説には納得させられます。

どちらかというと自分は休み明け初戦であることのほうが不安視してます。
今年の大阪杯と天皇賞のレースぶりを比較すると
やはり休み明けの大阪杯の方が少し物足りない感じがしましたので、
調整は順調とはいえ今回勝ちきるまではどうかという見解です。

Posted by: sousuke | October 26, 2007 04:45 PM

今晩は。

ダイワメジャーはピークが過ぎたのではとの心配は私も持っていましたが、前走の指数を見て考えを変えました。前走の指数は彼自身の最高指数をマークしました。確かに前走の敗因が59Kなのか、衰えなのかを解明するのは無理でしょう。

過去10年の毎日王冠の中でも最も厳しい流れ(12秒台のラップはスタートの1Fだけ)で先行して3F34.8秒は59K、休み明けを考えれば衰えはないのではと考えています。

指数が私の予想の基ですので(アストンマーチャンでは?しましたが)彼を信用してみます。
もし衰えていなければアドマイヤ、サムソンより一叩きの効果も期待でき、勝てるのではと思っています。


Posted by: やす爺 | October 26, 2007 06:44 PM

sousukeさん

何だか意外と誤解されているのではないかと思っています。

宝塚記念の後も、石橋騎手は良馬場でやりたかったと言っていましたよね。

負けた言い訳としか捉えられていないみたいですね(笑)

そもそもサムソンは34秒台の脚がコンスタントに発揮できるので、良馬場の方が安定して走られます。

これだけの馬なので、雨降って全く走らなくなるということはないのですが。

sousukeさんのおっしゃる通り、天皇賞春は完璧な仕上がりでしたよね。

毎日王冠をパスして、どれぐらいの仕上がり出て来るのか、正直私にも分かりません…

Posted by: 治郎丸敬之 | October 26, 2007 08:58 PM

やす爺さん

ここでは敢えて3強のあら捜しをしていますが、ダイワメジャーの毎日王冠は強かったですね。

追い切りの動きも良かったですし、肉体的な衰えは全く感じません。

あとは最後のツメのところで、昨年みたいに踏ん張り通せるかということでしょう。

私はアタマでなければ意味がない馬券を買いますので、ダイワメジャーはひと叩きされている分、2着かなという気がしています。

Posted by: 治郎丸敬之 | October 26, 2007 09:03 PM

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