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阪神カップの分析

■マイルCS好走組が中心
昨年も書いたが、スプリンターズSの開催時期の変更によって、スプリンターとマイラーの分極化が進んでしまった影響は大きい、と1年経った今でも思っている。

スプリンターズSは1990年にG1レースに昇格し、それ以降、師走のスプリント王決定戦として定着していたが、2000年から秋の中山開催へと時期が変更された。2000年までの日程だと、スワンS→マイルCS→スプリンターズSという短距離馬の王道があったが、スプリンターSを秋口に持ってきたことによって、マイルCSを目指す一流のマイラーたちがこのレースに出走しなくなってしまったのである。

その結果、スプリントの専門家がスプリンターズSで好成績を挙げることができるようになった反面、一流マイラーが参戦してこないことによるスプリンターズS出走馬のレベルの低下は免れ得ない。過去のレースを見ても、ダイイチルビー、ニシノフラワー、タイキシャトルらの馬は、この開催日程では出走していなかったのではないだろうか。つまり、かつては短距離としてひと括りにされていた路線が、二極化してしまったことにより、もとより層が薄かったスプリント路線の地盤が沈下してしまったのである。

そのような状況にテコ入れをすべく(かどうか分からないが)、阪神カップ(GⅡ、阪神1400m内回り)が昨年、新設された。まさに、開催時期が変更される前にスプリンターズSが行われていた日程である。この日程であれば、マイルCSに出走した、スタミナと底力に富んだマイラーも出走できることになる。今さらスプリンターズSの開催時期を戻す訳にもいかないのだろうが、阪神カップがこの時期に定着すれば、スワンS→マイルCS→阪神カップという短距離馬の王道が出来上がるのかもしれない

最後の直線に急坂が待ち構える阪神コースでは、たとえスプリント戦とはいえ、一介のスピード馬では勝ち切ることは出来ない。スタミナと底力に支えられた短距離馬でなければ、ゴール直前でふるい落とされてしまうからだ。かつてのスプリンターズSがそうであったように、阪神カップも順調に出走してきたマイルCS好走組が台頭する舞台になることは間違いないだろう

■阪神1400m
スタート後、3コーナー過ぎまでの距離はおよそ440mと十分にあり、テンはそれなりに速くなる。そして、3~4コーナーが複合カーブであるため、スピードが落ちない。そのため、緩急のない全体的に速いペースで道中は流れる。しかし、3コーナーからゴール前に至るまで下りが続くため、そのまま流れ込むことの出来る先行馬が有利

とはいえ、3~4コーナーの間に偽直線を挟んでいるため、差し馬もペースに応じて先行集団との差を詰めることが出来る。先行馬が有利なコースではあるが、決して差し馬に不利なコースではないといことだ。むしろ道中のペースが速くなりすぎると、直線の急坂で先行馬が総崩れということも十分にあり得るので注意。

5回開催の後半では、内側がかなり傷んで、走りにくい部分が出来てしまうこともあるが、現在のところは、3~4コーナーの内側が若干傷んできているものの、まだ大きなバイアスが出るほどではない。内枠外枠で大きな有利不利はない。

追記
阪神カップの見解、有力馬情報に関しては、メルマガ「馬券のヒント」にて配信させていただきます。日曜日の9時までにご登録いただければ、今回の配信に間に合うはずです。→メルマガ詳細はこちら

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Comments

阪神1400mは、差しも先行も追い込みも展開次第ですね。
基本、差し有利だとは思ってますが・・。

中山は相変わらず先行有利みたいですね。

阪神カップはドラゴンウェルズ辺りに触手が・・・。

Posted by: はやひで | December 16, 2007 at 01:02 AM

はやひでさん

こんばんは。

阪神1400mはペースは速くなることが多いのですが、直線も短く、3コーナーから下り坂だけに前もなかなか止まりませんよね。

私は基本先行有利だと思っていますが、強い差し馬ならば勝ち切れる舞台だとも思っています。

つまり、スズカフェニックスにとって、コースや枠順は不利な要素にはならないかなと。

ドラゴンウェルズがマイルCSに出走していたら、もしかしたら好走していたかもしれませんものね。

スーパーホーネットの回避で、俄然面白くなった阪神カップです(笑)。

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