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きさらぎ賞の分析

Kisaragi

過去10年の優勝馬だけではなく、連対馬からもG1ウィナーを輩出しているように、クラシックへ向けての試金石となる一戦。2歳時に無理をしなかった素質馬が狙いを定めて出走してくるため、レベルの高いレースとなりやすい。

実はこれといった傾向はないのだが、ひとつだけラップ構成から垣間見えるレースの特徴がある。勝ち馬や全体のタイムはほとんど関係ないので、過去10年のラップと前後半4ハロンのタイムだけを時系列に並べてみたい(一番下が2007年のラップ)。

12.7-11.9-12.2-13.0-13.0-12.4-11.8-12.3-12.0(49.8-48.5) 後傾ラップ
12.9-11.1-12.1-12.6-12.5-12.1-11.6-12.1-12.1(48.7-47.9) 平均ラップ
13.0-11.1-11.6-12.3-12.4-12.1-11.6-11.8-12.1(48.0-47.6) 平均ラップ
12.7-11.3-11.7-12.1-12.6-12.5-11.7-11.7-11.6(47.8-47.5) 平均ラップ
12.5-11.0-11.5-12.4-12.4-12.2-11.9-11.9-11.8(47.4-47.8) 平均ラップ
12.8-11.4-12.0-12.6-12.9-12.4-11.8-11.8-11.9(48.8-47.9) 平均ラップ
12.9-11.3-11.5-12.1-12.5-12.5-11.8-11.7-11.7(47.8-47.7) 平均ラップ
12.9-11.8-11.9-12.5-12.4-12.0-11.6-11.4-12.0(49.1-47.0) 後傾ラップ
12.8-11.0-11.5-12.2-12.5-12.5-11.9-11.3-11.7(47.5-47.4) 平均ラップ
12.8-11.3-12.3-12.9-12.4-12.1-11.3-11.4-12.3(49.3-47.1) 後傾ラップ

前後半のラップの差が1秒以上ない場合を平均ラップとして考えると、過去10年中で僅か3レースのみが後傾ラップとなる。それ以外の年のレースは平均ラップで流れていて、スローペースになりやすい近年の傾向を考えると、かなり珍しい部類のレースに入る。

なぜこのような平均的な流れになるかというと、京都1800m(外回り)というコースの形態に理由がある。京都1800mは、向う正面を延長したポケットの最深部からスタートするため、スタートから最初のコーナーまでの距離がなんと912mという長さになる。この数字を見てピンときた人はさすがだが、つまりレース全体距離の半分が最初の直線に費やされるということだ。

これだけ直線が長いと、どうしても逃げ・先行馬が息を入れずに気分良く行ってしまうため、前半部分が速くなりやすい。しかし、その代わりに後半が遅くなるかというとそうでもなく、3コーナーを回ってからゴールまでは下り一辺倒になるので、後半も同じように速い上がりでの勝負となる。つまり、全体的に淀みのないラップが刻まれ続ける、厳しいレースになるということだ。

よって、このレースを勝ち切るためにまず問われるのは、1800mという字ズラ以上のスタミナである。過去の勝ち馬から菊花賞馬が2頭、ダービー馬が1頭出ていることは、あながち偶然でもないだろう。そして、もうひとつ問われるのは、速いラップを長く刻み続けることの出来る持続力である。マイル戦でスピードを生かす競馬を得意とする馬や、一瞬の差し脚で勝負する馬は狙いを下げた方が賢明である。


関連エントリ
けいけん豊富な毎日:きさらぎ賞(展開分析)

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Comments

たびたびのご紹介、ありがとうございますm(__)m

コースによって必要とされる素質が違う・・・
特にまだ経験の浅い3歳馬の場合は経験の有無でも
大きく差が出てしまいそうですね。

昨年は皐月賞が後半緩まないペースになることを
想定していたため、きさらぎ賞を見てアサクサキングスに
期待していたんですが・・・
結局結果を出してきたのはダービー、菊花賞でした(^^;
脚質的にはそっちの方につながっていくのだと思われます。

こういう長い良い脚を使える馬はその後も活躍して
くれそうですし、今年も期待馬が出現してくれることを
楽しみにしたいと思います(^^)g

Posted by: けん♂ | February 14, 2008 05:32 AM

けん♂さん

こちらこそ、いつもありがとうございます。

>特にまだ経験の浅い3歳馬の場合は経験の有無でも
>大きく差が出てしまいそうですね。

そのようですね。

京都コースでの実績もきさらぎ賞では大切な要素になってきそうです。

昨年のきさらぎ賞はスローだったので、よりアサクサキングスの長い脚が強調されたような感じがありましたね。

もちろん、今年はどんな展開になるか分かりませんが、メンバー的にも息が抜けないレースになりそうな予感がします。

まだ混沌としたクラシック戦線ですが、この辺りから少しずつ見えてきそうですね。

レースが来るのが今から楽しみです。

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