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高松宮記念のラップ分析

Takamatumiya

春のスプリント王決定戦。1996年にG1に格上げされ、2000年より3月の最終週に移行された。過去12年間のレースラップをみてみたい(一番下が最新)。

11.8-10.3-11.0-11.1-11.3-11.9(33.1-34.3)H
11.8-10.2-11.0-11.3-11.7-12.0(33.0-35.0)H
12.0-10.5-11.2-11.7-11.7-12.0(33.7-35.4)H
11.7-10.1-10.8-11.8-11.7-11.9(32.6-35.4)H
11.9-10.5-10.7-11.4-11.8-12.3(33.1-35.5)H
11.8-10.5-11.2-11.2-11.9-11.8(33.5-34.9)H
11.8-10.2-10.9-11.5-11.7-12.3(32.9-35.5)H
11.9-10.3-10.7-11.2-11.9-12.1(32.9-35.2)H
11.8-10.3-10.8-11.2-11.6-12.2(32.9-35.0)H
11.8-10.3-11.2-11.4-11.6-12.1(33.3-35.1)H
11.9-10.5-11.3-11.3-11.3-11.7(33.7-34.3)M
12.0-10.6-11.2-11.4-11.8-11.9(33.8-35.1)H

「差し馬有利」の状況は、ラップタイムからも一目瞭然である。ほぼ毎年、前半が速くて後半が掛かるという、典型的な前傾ラップである。「短距離の差し馬」という格言があるように、基本的にスプリント戦は差し馬有利な前傾ラップになることが多い。特にG1のスプリント戦となると、スピードのある馬が揃い、前半のポジション争いが厳しくなるため、どうしても上がりの掛かる展開となるのは避けられない。

中京競馬場は小回り、直線に坂がなく平坦であるため、本来は圧倒的に先行馬が有利なコースであるが、最後の1ハロンでスピード自慢の先行馬の脚が止まり、スタミナを備えた差し馬がゴール前で逆転するという展開のレースになりやすい。つまり、高松宮記念は見た目以上に差し脚が生きるコースである。G1スプリント戦の性格に加え、コース形態がスピードとスタミナを兼ね備えた強い差し馬に有利に働くということだ。直線が短く、坂がない先行馬有利なコースというイメージを捨て去って予想に臨むべきである。    

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Comments

毎度です。
いよいよ春GⅠ戦線始まりですね。
雑誌サラブレか何かでGⅠ予想大会みたいなのをしているそうなのですが、(私は投函等はしていません)
おもしろそうなので、自分のブログに春のGⅠ勝ち馬予想を載せました。是非治郎丸さんの予想もブログ上に載せてみてください。

Posted by: はやひで | March 26, 2008 12:19 PM

はやひでさん

こんばんは。

G1予想大会ですね。

何度かやろうと思ったのですが、実は一度もやったことがありません。

なぜなら、実際に買う馬券に影響してしまいそうな恐怖があるからです。

そういえば、G1予想大会ではこの馬にしてたよなあ、とかなって、予想を変えてもし予想大会の方が当たったら悔しいなとか思い悩み始めないかとね。

なので、ブログ上に載せるのは勘弁してくださいw

ということで、はやひでさんのためだけに、ここで内緒に書いておきますので、見たらすぐに忘れてください。

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Posted by: 治郎丸敬之 | March 27, 2008 01:04 AM

ゞ( ̄∇ ̄;)
ま、ゲームと割り切ってますので。
適当に予想して書いただけですが。

案外、後で予想変えたら痛い目に遭うって事があったりして。辛いところですが・・。
(;´Д`)

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