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天皇賞春のラップ分析

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61.4-74.3-60.3) 3:17.0 ヒシミラクル
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60.3-74.7-59.1) 3:14.1 メイショウサムソン

京都3200mコースは天皇賞春専用のコースである。スタートしてから第1コーナーまでの距離は417mと長く、しかも緩やかな上りになっているため、無謀な先行争いはほとんどない。過去5年間で前半の1000m(赤字)が60秒を切ったレースは一度もないように、菊花賞と比べても、前半5ハロンはよりスローに流れる。

1週目は、ゆっくりと3コーナーを頂上とする坂を上って下り、スタンド前では馬を落ち着かせて、折り合いをつけることに専念する。もしスタンド前直線のペースが速くなった場合は、向こう正面が遅くなり、スタンド前直線のペースが遅くなった場合は、向こう正面が速くなる。よって、スタンド前か向こう正面のいずれかで中緩みが必ず生じることになる。

前半がスローに流れ、中盤が緩むことも必至であるため、坂を下りながらのラストの1000mのラップは速く、上がりの競馬になりやすい。ディープインパクトが勝ったレースは例外としても、ラスト1000mが60秒を切る決着となる可能性が高い。つまり、折り合いを欠くことなく先行し、温存した全ての力を最後に爆発させることの出来る馬にとって有利なレースとなる。

また、菊花賞が行われる京都3000mとは距離的には200mしか違わないが、菊花賞がAコース(幅員35m)で行われるのに対し、天皇賞春はDコース(幅員25m)で行われる。そのため、天皇賞春が行われるDコースの方が4コーナーの回りがきつくなり、差し馬は外を回さざるを得ない。よって、菊花賞に比べ、天皇賞春は逃げ・先行馬がペース次第では逃げ残ってしまい、人気の差し馬が届かない可能性が高い。後ろから行く馬にチャンスがあるとすれば、中緩みしたところで前との差を詰めることが出来た場合のみか。

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Comments

先行馬が残り安いんですか~。
これはアサクサキングスでよさそうですね。

ふと、セイウンスカイが負けてるなぁと思ったんですが、その年のスペシャルウィークは2~3番手で競馬。
やっぱり、前が残る展開なんですね。

先行が総崩れの年はヒシミラクルくらいですね。

Posted by: D&D | April 29, 2008 01:28 PM

D&Dさん

そうなんですよ。

前に行けるホクトスルタンやアサクサキングスには有利なレースになります。

ただ、ジョッキーたちがそのことを意識しすぎると、得てして逆のペースになってしまうことはよくありますから。

おっしゃる通り、ヒシミラクルの年はサンライズジェガーやダイタクバートラムが突っ込んできたように、前崩れになりましたよね。

果たして今年はどんな展開のレースになるのでしょうか。

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