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オークスのラップ分析

Oaks

12.9-12.0-12.4-12.7-12.8-12.7-12.8-12.6-12.1-12.2-10.9-12.0(75.5-72.6)S
12.5-11.3-11.7-12.6-12.7-13.6-12.6-12.5-12.0-12.3-11.0-12.1(74.4-72.5)S
12.4-11.4-12.6-13.6-13.5-13.0-13.1-12.7-12.6-12.3-11.2-11.8(76.5-73.7)S
12.2-11.3-11.7-12.3-12.9-12.9-13.1-12.7-12.1-12.3-11.2-11.6(73.3-73.0)M
12.7-10.8-12.7-13.0-12.6-12.7-12.9-12.4-12.0-12.2-11.6-12.1(74.5-73.2)S
12.6-11.1-12.3-12.6-12.6-12.7-13.1-13.4-12.7-11.5-11.1-11.8(73.9-73.6)M
12.6-11.4-12.6-13.1-12.3-12.7-12.9-12.5-12.1-11.2-11.4-12.4(74.7-72.5)S
12.6-11.3-13.2-13.1-12.9-13.4-13.1-12.6-12.2-11.5-10.9-12.0(76.5-72.3)S
12.5-10.9-11.3-11.6-11.8-12.4-12.8-13.5-13.2-11.6-12.2-12.4(70.5-75.7)H
12.6-11.0-11.6-11.8-12.1-12.8-12.7-12.5-12.4-11.8-11.4-12.6(71.9-73.4)H

桜花賞から一気に800mも延長されるオークスでは、どの馬にとっても未知の距離となるため、各騎手に前半大事に乗ろうという気持ちが働き、ペースが遅くなるケースが多い。ここ2年は珍しく淀みないペースで流れたが、基本的には、道中はゆっくりと進んでラスト3ハロンの瞬発力勝負になりやすい。そのため、瞬発力に長けているだけではなく、スローペースに折り合える性格(気性)も勝つための条件となる

昨年から桜花賞のコース設定が変わり、桜花賞も道中はゆったりと進み、最後の直線での瞬発力勝負になるレースが多くなるはずである。よって、以前に比べると、桜花賞を勝った馬(好走した馬)がそのままオークスでも好走する確率は高くなるのではないだろうか。ただ、レジネッタが勝った今年の桜花賞を見ても、一旦スイッチが入ってしまうと極端なハイペースになってしまうレースでもあるので、桜花賞のペースを判断した上で、オークスとの結びつきは考えていくべき。

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