アイビスサマーダッシュを当てるために知っておくべき3つのこと

■1■牝馬の活躍が目立つ
牡馬・せん馬 【2・3・4・52】 連対率8%
牝馬 【5・4・3・25】 連対率24%
過去7回行われたレース中、牡馬が勝ったのはわずかに2回。しかも、その2回は、あのスプリンターズSを制し、直線1000mコースのスペシャリストであったカルストンライトオによるもの。つまり、それ以外の牡馬は、このレースで牝馬に勝ったことがない。連対率を見ても圧倒的な差が生じている。理由としては、平坦コースで牝馬特有の切れ味を生かせるということ、揉まれないということ、さらにもうひとつ付け加えると牝馬は気を抜かずにガムシャラに走るからだろう。
■2■ダート短距離血統の馬に注目
過去の連対馬を見ると、カリスタグローリー、サクラバクシンオー、Capote、スターオブコジーン、ウォーニングなど、ダートの短距離に強い血統の馬が並んでいる。このことからも、一気にアクセルを全開にしてトップギアに入ることのできる、後輪駆動のパワータイプが強いことが分かる。芝のスピードよりも、ダッシュするためのパワーが必要ということである。
■3■外枠有利というよりも
新潟直線1000mは外枠有利と言われるが、本当にそうだろうか。開催が進んで馬場の内側が傷んでくれば、外が走りやすいトラックバイアスが生まれることは確かだが、開幕週であれば馬場の内外は気にすることはない。それよりも、馬は埒(らち)を頼った方が走りやすいということである。直線だけの競馬は馬群が大きくバラけることが多く、他馬との間隔が開きすぎると、馬はフラフラして走りにくい。だからこそ、早めに埒(らち)を味方につけて突っ走った馬が有利ということになる。そういった意味では、手応えの良い馬が集まってくる外枠の方がレースはしやすい。
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