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再掲:「インサイダー情報の罠」

Insider_1「インサイダー(競馬関係者)情報が知りたい」という声を耳にすると、つい私は悲しくなってしまう。そういった願望につけこんだ商売が横行していることを嘆いているわけではなく、インサイダー情報を知れば馬券が当たると思い込んでいる競馬ファンが、まだ多くいることに愕然としてしまうのである。

インサイダー情報を頼りに馬券の予想をしていたのは、もはや戦前の話である。現在と比べると限られた情報しか与えられていなかった競馬ファンが、どこからともなく流れてくる風の噂を大きな根拠として、馬券を買わざるを得ない時代が確かにあった。「あの調教師が絶対に勝てると言っている」とか、「あの馬はエビ(屈腱炎)が出ているらしい」等々、聞き捨てならない情報がまことしやかに人口に膾炙したのである。兎にも角にも、予想する上での拠り所が、嘘か本当かわからないはずのインサイダー情報にしかなかったのである。

しかし、戦後、私たち競馬ファンは、自分たちのイマジネーションを用いて馬券を買うことができる、ということを知ることになる。故大川慶次郎氏による「展開」の発見である。「展開」という概念は、今となっては当たり前のように用いられているが、当時は画期的な予想法であった。それぞれの脚質を分析し、実際のレースが行われる前に、仮想上のレースを想定するのである。競馬ファンひとりひとりが、自分の頭の中で、あらゆるイマジネーションを活用して、レースを予想するのである。これが競馬予想の民主化の走りである。

現代において、インサイダー情報などあるはずはない。競馬記者たちは毎日のように取材に来るし、馬体重はレース毎に発表されてしまうし(なんと今後は木曜にも!)、調教タイムも毎回公表されてしまう。何かを隠すことは難しく、そもそも無意味である。もしインサイダー情報というものがあるとすれば、恐ろしくニッチな情報か、もしくは嘘である。そんな時代に、インサイダー情報を元に、馬券を買おうと考える発想はあまりにも古すぎるのである。

とはいえ、やはりインサイダー情報という響きは魅力的で、私もその罠にハマリそうになったことがある。少し昔の話になるが、キングカメハメハのダービー祝勝会に招かれて行った時のことである。宴たけなわの時、私は席を外して、男性用のトイレで用を足していた。すると、若者二人が何やら楽しそうに話しながら一緒に入ってきて、私の隣の便器で、こんな会話をしながら用を足した。

「菊花賞はハーツクライで間違いないですよ。」
「確かにネ。」

帰り際に後姿をチラッと見たところ、おそらくその二人はノーザンファーム、もしくは社台ファームの牧場(育成)スタッフであった。キングカメハメハの祝勝会で、菊花賞はハーツクライで間違いないとは大っぴらには言えないが、トイレの中での会話だけに、かえって私には真実味を帯びて感じられた。しかも、この情報は私から聞き出したわけではなく、たまたま偶然にも私の元に降りてきたのである。この情報を知るものは、私以外にはいない。私はこの時点で、菊花賞はハーツクライで間違いないと確信してしまった。

結論から言うと、ハーツクライは菊花賞で1番人気に推されるも惨敗してしまった。そして、実は私もハーツクライの馬券を買うことはなかった。なぜなら、夏を越しての成長を期待していたにもかかわわず、馬体は相変わらず華奢なままで、ステップレースの神戸新聞杯でも力なく3着に破れていたからだ。

とはいえ、インサイダー情報の誘惑から抜け出すのは、容易なことではなかった。どう考えても、夏を越しての成長がないハーツクライは勝つ確率が低いのだが、「菊花賞はハーツクライで間違いないですよ。」というあの牧場スタッフの情報が邪魔をするのである。今から考えれば、牧場スタッフの主観的意見に過ぎなかったわけだが、当時はほとんど核心的な情報として、私の予想を占拠してしまっていた。せっかくの情報を切って捨てるのはもったいない、という感覚もあったように思う。いずれにせよ、あの時、ふと耳にしてしまった何気ないひと言が、私の菊花賞の予想を最後まで揺り動かしたのである。

もう一度言おう。現代において、インサイダー情報などはない。もしあるとすれば、恐ろしくニッチで主観的な情報か、もしくは嘘である。こんな時代に、インサイダー情報を元に、馬券を買おうと考える発想はあまりにも古すぎるのである。答えは与えられるものではなく、自分の手で見つけ出すものである。答えはいつもあなたの頭の中(インサイド)にある


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Comments

私のブログはランキングに登録していませんので
基本的にランキング上位のブログを見ることはないのですが
先日、たまたまサラッと目を通す機会がありました。
・・・もちろん全部ではないですが、インサイダーまがいの
ものもかなり横行してますね(^^;
馬主情報だの、関係者情報だの・・・もし本当に
情報があったらオープンにする必要もないわけで(笑)
わざわざオッズを下げたいのか、と問いたいです(爆)。

答えはいつも頭の中にある・・そうですよね。
問題は正しい引き出しはどこにあるのか
なかなか見つからないことなわけで・・(^^;
日々格闘しております。

以前にも書いたかもしれませんが、私は予想はアップしても
あえて買い目はオープンにしないようにしています。
自分が調べた情報は全てオープンにしているので
あとは読んで頂いた皆様がどう買い目につなげていくのか、
そこは邪魔しないようにしたいんですよね。
私自身、自分で調べたことに振り回されて
そのレースのポイントとなることをよく見失っています(笑)
調べてあったのに!・・何度叫んだことか・・(爆)

Posted by: けん♂ | July 20, 2008 10:27 AM

今晩は♪
インサイダー情報って沢山ありますね。私も試しに元ジョッキー、元調教師(かなり有名)の人が
名前を連ねるメルマガに登録したら、沢山の勧誘メールが届きます。
メールの止め方が分からないので、今は見ないで自動的にゴミ箱に入る設定になっています^^;

競馬は情報に頼ることは間違いないのですが、インサイダー情報って、ある一部の情報だけだと思います。
馬主、厩舎、騎手など沢山の人がいる中でその情報全てを知るのは不可能です。
たとえ知っていたとしても、走るのは馬^^。馬はしゃべれませんからね。
(馬がこー言ったという情報ならぜひ買いたいところです(笑))

利用する側は金(当たり馬券)がほしいだけで、競馬の予想プロセスという大変面白いことをやめてしまうことになります。

これって、メチャクチャ勿体無いと思います。本当にお金が必要なら、まじめに働けです。

もしくは、ギャンブルで人に頼るのはアホです。身銭を切るのですから、
自分の責任で買わないと後悔するだけです。

競馬には必勝法は無くとも、覚えておくべき「勝つための知識」はあると考えています。
それが中々見つからないので日々悪戦苦闘していますが^^;

Posted by: ナルトーン | July 20, 2008 08:58 PM

けん♂さん

こんばんは。

競馬にはギャンブルという側面が半分ある以上、インサイダー情報のたぐい云々が出てくるのは必然だと思っています。

切り口によっては、とても面白いものもあるでしょう。

ただ、もはやそういった時代ではないにもかかわらず、一般教育を受けた人でも、意外とそういった情報を元に馬券を買おうという考えがあることが驚きでした。

実際、そのような情報の存在を信じ、知りたいと思われている方が少なくはないのです。

答えはいつも頭の中にあるなんてカッコつけてしまいましたが、本当にそう思います。

けん♂さんのブログを見たりして、もう頭の中にはたくさんの判断材料があるわけですから、あとはそれをどういう形で出していくかが問われているのですよね。

だから競馬は面白い!

Posted by: 治郎丸敬之 | July 22, 2008 01:29 AM

ナルトーンさん

インサイダー情報って魅惑的な響きがありますよね。

手の届かないあっちの世界があって、幻想だけが広がっていくという感覚でしょうか。

実は想像していた世界とは全く違うというオチがつくのがほとんどなのですけどね。

私なんか馬が調子悪いって言ったって、ホントか?って疑っちゃいますよ(笑)

>競馬には必勝法は無くとも、覚えておくべき「勝つための知識」はあると考えています。
→おっしゃる通りだと思います。

勝つところまで結びつけるのは至難の業ですが、上のけん♂もおっしゃるように、どの引き出しを開けるかという判断が大切なのでしょうね。

そのあたりに、競馬の喜びがあるように思います。

悪戦苦闘していても楽しいですからね^^;


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