« ◎ブレイクランアウト | Main | あの時の熱狂が »

有馬記念を勝つために知っておくべき3つのこと

Arima

■1■必ずしも強い馬が勝つとはいえない2つの理由
暮れの大一番、有馬記念。3歳馬と古馬との対決でその年のナンバーワンを決定するのだが、必ずしも強い馬が勝つとは言えないのがこのレース。
その理由として、
1、シーズン最後のレースであるために、強くてもピークを過ぎている馬がいる。
2、コーナーを6つも回るため、展開によって大きくペースが左右される。
という2点が挙げられる。

1については、各馬それぞれ目標としていたレースが違うということである。たとえば3歳馬なら菊花賞、古馬ならジャパンカップ、そして海外のメルボルンカップに目標を定めていた馬もいるだろう。しかし、現状としては、暮れの大一番である有馬記念に目標を置いていたという馬はまずいない。よって、秋のどこかの時点でピークに仕上がってしまった馬や、仕上げて勝った馬は、この有馬記念には下降線の決して万全とはいえない体調で臨まざるを得ないということになる。中にはここに来て調子を上げてくる馬もいるので、そういった体調の交錯があって、あっと驚く好走や凡走が繰り広げられるのがこの有馬記念である。

2については、有馬記念が行われる中山の2500mというコースにおける特徴は、コーナーを6つも回るということだ。競馬はコーナーを回ることによって息が入ったり、ペースがアップダウンしたりするので、コーナーの数と展開の不安定性は比例する。ここ3年はタップダンスシチーが速いペースで引っ張っているが、いつ超スローペースになってもおかしくない。つまり、展開の紛れによって結果が大きく左右される、荒れやすいレースである。

■2■世代交代が行われるレース
過去10年の年齢別の成績を見ると、3歳馬が4勝、4歳馬が6勝となる。成長著しい3歳馬か、充実から完成に向かう4歳馬のどちらかから勝ち馬が出る可能性は非常に高い。このデータを考えると、5歳と7歳時に連対したタップダンスシチーの凄さが分かる。いずれにせよ、有馬記念は世代交代が行われるレースであり、これからの馬を狙い打つのが本筋である。

■3■牝馬が勝ちきることは難しい
牝馬としては過去10年でヒシアマゾンの2着、エアグルーヴの3着、ダイワスカーレットの2着が最高である。理由は2つ考えられて、1つはジャパンカップと同じく、トップレベルのスタミナが要求されること。もうひとつは、牝馬は牡馬に比べて冬毛が生えてくるのが早いように、季節的に休眠に入ってしまい臨戦態勢にないことが挙げられる。これからも牝馬がこのレースを勝ち切ることは相当難しいだろう。

現在のランキング順位はこちら

|

Comments

s2n2b0s1yp http://002evolves.blogspot.com

Posted by: tmu788l | June 27, 2010 at 11:32 PM

http://worldbehindtheglass.blogspot.com/2006_11_01_archive.html http://armaturegrul.blogspot.com http://anepitalia.blogspot.com/2008/04/prenatal-father.html http://uwirepr.com/2010/04/12/americanlisted-com-launches-campaign-to-stop-couch-abandonment-crisis/ http://www.science-en-jeu.ca/forestia/video.php http://newbornbabyname.blogspot.com/ http://hkfcrugbysection.blogspot.com/2008/11/never-mind-bledisloe-aussies-won-ashes.html http://bloody-hopel

Posted by: gimme that vidoe | July 01, 2010 at 01:10 PM

http://claytonecramer.blogspot.com/2009_04_19_archive.html http://xrrf.blogspot.com/2007/06/r-tony-thompson.html http://fuerstenberger-gartentag.blogspot.com/ http://www.sandiegozoo.org/animalbytes/t-striped_hyena.html http://www.bleudogblog.blogspot.com/ http://radical-hr.blogspot.com/2008_05_01_archive.html http://jabronism.blogspot.com/2009/04/lirik-dan-kord-gitar-dan-sebenarnya-by.html http://whendidyouknow.blogspot.com/ http://theeverbreath.bl

Posted by: gerald mcclellan youtube | July 01, 2010 at 02:32 PM

http://heartedvideo.blogspot.com http://camosse.blogspot.com/2008/11/techo-bloc-showcase.html http://warisanboria.blogspot.com/ http://scienceandreason.blogspot.com/2006/08/recent-technology-news-8606.html http://kygreybeard.blogspot.com/2008_04_17_archive.html http://viviendomiciudad.com/index.php http://broodingpersian.blogspot.com/ http://www.alteredatmosphere.com/manufactures/aam.php http://djschuma.blogspot.com/2009_04_01_archive.html http:

Posted by: innervate video | July 01, 2010 at 09:25 PM

Your website is very the most informative. I enjoyed your website a lot. Thank you.

Posted by: payday loan | July 02, 2010 at 02:53 PM

http://befastpast.blogspot.com/2009_12_01_archive.html http://davidexcommunicative.blogspot.com http://www.betoortiz.com/index.php http://detailsvideo.blogspot.com http://www.3gpdb.com/videoy.php?b=DAeP6bI2AIA&sourah-al-hijr-by-hani-ar-refai- http://takkartandwork.blogspot.com/feeds/posts/default?orderby=updated http://ediporey.blogspot.com/2009/07/nocion-de-significado-en-wittgenstein.html http://guineasunashamedly.blogspot.com http://www.vi

Posted by: igloo gloo videos | July 02, 2010 at 08:44 PM

http://wine-wein-vino-vin.blogspot.com/2009/07/lost-in-translation.html http://smakompisar.blogspot.com/ http://movies.piczo.com/movie/aag http://gettyobtainment.blogspot.com http://onalobsterplacemat.blogspot.com/ http://bestsplash.com/ http://beatricelooi.blogspot.com/ http://vpamies.blogspot.com/2005_12_01_archive.html http://bee-zee.blogspot.com/ http://redfishcircle.blogspot.com/2007_12_01_archive.html http://abattoir666.blogspot.com/2008/

Posted by: mastodon new video | July 03, 2010 at 02:06 AM

http://equipollentvideo.blogspot.com http://dailyencouragementnet.blogspot.com/2006/12/boasting.html http://www.ova.de/ http://www.monografias.com/trabajos16/diccionario-comunicacion/diccionario-comunicacion.shtml http://meineperlenwelt.blogspot.com/ http://me.zorpia.com/abadyy http://fatlygambe.blogspot.com http://dusterscretonne.blogspot.com http://festivemisa.blogspot.com http://valentinesdaywishes.blogspot.com/2008/02/belated-valentines-day-

Posted by: adel imam u tube | July 04, 2010 at 05:16 AM

www.glassracetrack.com is great! Holiday payday loans are specially designed for holidays Now you dont need to delay or postpone you holiday due to deficiency of cash By these loans you can avail cash for your enjoyment quickly and easily

Posted by: toronto payday loans | July 12, 2010 at 05:40 AM

Your web publication is very useful. Say thanks to you truly for presenting a huge amount of helpful related information. Most definitely i'll bookmark your blog site and will be without doubt returning. Once again, I recognise the value of all your work as well as providing much useable information for the people.

Posted by: online payday loans | August 25, 2010 at 10:53 AM

I'm happy to have found your very good article! I agree with some of your readers and will eagerly look forward to your coming updates. Just saying thanks will not just be adequate, for the wonderful lucidity in your writing. I will instantly grab your rss feed to stay privy of any updates. Good work and much success in your business efforts.

Posted by: payday loans | August 31, 2010 at 01:04 AM

nuhvgirkexpeghzehhjecgvdvhmixxkpfxj

Posted by: loans bc | September 02, 2010 at 10:31 AM

Hi buddy, very informative post. Please keep them coming.

Posted by: payday loans online | September 21, 2010 at 08:14 PM

Greetings everyone, This webpage is excellent and so is how the matter was expanded. I like some of the comments as well although I would prefer we all keep it on topic in order add value to the subject. It will be

Posted by: payday loans in canada | September 22, 2010 at 08:01 AM

Do you have any more info on this? kgyfbebaphv

Posted by: faxless payday loans | September 23, 2010 at 07:05 AM

This article gives the light in which we can observe the reality. This is very nice one and gives in-depth information. Thanks for this nice article.

Posted by: loans online no fax | September 26, 2010 at 07:25 AM

A very nice niche blog, and a good design there sparks Simplicity yet complex algorithm of the internet. Thank You.

Posted by: cash advance loans canada | September 26, 2010 at 05:07 PM

I must say that overall I am very taken with this site. It is apparent that you know you subject matter and you are passionate about it. I wish I had got your ability to write. I have bookmarked your site and look forward to more updates.

Posted by: loan canada bad credit | September 27, 2010 at 05:47 AM

Hi buddy, very informative post. Please keep them coming.

Posted by: bad credit loans toronto | September 27, 2010 at 08:11 PM

Easily, the submit is really the greatest on this laudable topic. I concur with your conclusions and will thirstily look forward to your future updates. Saying thanks will not just be sufficient, for the wonderful lucidity in your writing. I will instantly grab your rss feed to stay privy of any updates. Solid work and much success in your business enterprise!

Posted by: loans bc | September 28, 2010 at 06:34 AM

Finally, an issue that I am passionate about. I have looked for information of this caliber for the last several hours. Your web page is greatly appreciated.

Posted by: loans ontario | September 28, 2010 at 08:22 PM

I'm happy to have found your incredibly decent article! I agree with some of your readers and will eagerly look forward to your coming updates. Just saying thanks will not just be adequate, for the wonderful lucidity in your writing. I will instantly grab your rss feed to stay privy of any updates. Effective work and much success in your business efforts.

Posted by: loans for bad credit | September 29, 2010 at 07:21 AM

so informative, thanks to tell us.

Posted by: SwawErupweS | September 30, 2010 at 10:24 AM

This article gives the light in which we can observe the reality. This is incredibly nice one and gives in-depth information. Thanks for this nice article

Posted by: weight loss | October 02, 2010 at 06:39 PM

Highly useful article. Myself & my neighbor were preparing to do some research about that. We got a effective book on that matter from our local library and most books were not as descriptive as your information. I'm especially glad to see such information which I was searching for a long time.

Posted by: credit loans canada | October 03, 2010 at 07:54 PM

A rather nice niche blog, and a fine design there sparks Simplicity yet complex algorithm of the net. Thank You.

Posted by: bad credit loans calgary | October 15, 2010 at 08:51 AM

Terrific read, I just passed this onto a colleague who was doing a little research on that. And he actually bought me lunch because I found it for him smile So let me rephrase that: Thanks for lunch!

Posted by: bad credit loans | October 16, 2010 at 06:24 AM

I will publish a link to this blog on my web site. I'm sure my readers will find this info really superb.

Posted by: loan money canada | October 17, 2010 at 07:34 AM

Thanks for making such a killer blog. I come on here all the time and am floored with the fresh information here.

Posted by: payday loan application | October 18, 2010 at 12:35 PM

Decent submit. Thank for sharing.

Posted by: loans for bad credit people | October 19, 2010 at 01:46 PM

This is such a great resource that you are providing and you give it away for free. I love seeing websites that understand the value of providing a quality resource for free. It is the old what goes around comes around routine. Did you acquired lots of links and I see lots of trackbacks??

Posted by: laptop computers | October 20, 2010 at 05:03 AM

This site is awesome. I continually come across some thing new & different right here. Thank you for that data.

Posted by: loan canada | October 20, 2010 at 12:57 PM

This article gives the light in which we can observe the reality. This is rather nice one and gives in-depth information. Thanks for this nice article

Posted by: loan with bad credit history | October 21, 2010 at 05:53 AM

This website is the most excellent ?nternet site.

Posted by: loan for bad credit | October 25, 2010 at 07:59 PM

This website is the recommended blog site.

Posted by: personal loan bad credit canada | October 26, 2010 at 06:47 AM

This website is the most significant internet sites.

Posted by: cash advance lenders | October 27, 2010 at 10:21 AM

This website is the prime blog site.

Posted by: loan no credit | October 28, 2010 at 05:52 AM

This website is the most useful net page.

Posted by: bad credit loan personal canada | October 30, 2010 at 04:31 AM

This website is the best web property.

Posted by: bad credit loan personal | November 01, 2010 at 07:00 PM

This website is the most excellent world-wide-web site.

Posted by: payday loans ontario canada | November 02, 2010 at 10:34 AM

This website is the preferred ?nternet site.

Posted by: bad credit loans canada | November 03, 2010 at 07:35 AM

This website is the recommended web portal.

Posted by: bad credit loans canada | November 04, 2010 at 10:28 AM

This website is the best world wide web site.

Posted by: bad credit loan canada | November 05, 2010 at 10:02 AM

This website is the optimum world wide web site.

Posted by: bad credit loans canada | November 06, 2010 at 05:04 AM

This website is the top world-wide-web page.

Posted by: cash advance loans | November 06, 2010 at 12:37 PM

This website is the top web portal.

Posted by: bad credit loans toronto | November 07, 2010 at 06:37 AM

This website is the best internet sites.

Posted by: cash advance canada | November 09, 2010 at 08:30 PM

This website is the ideal web site.

Posted by: personal loans with bad credit canada | November 10, 2010 at 09:57 AM

This website is the most significant web property.

Posted by: canada cash advance | November 10, 2010 at 07:33 PM

This website is the incredibly best world-wide-web page.

Posted by: get loan with bad credit | November 11, 2010 at 10:15 AM

This website is the finest web property.

Posted by: apply for loans canada | November 11, 2010 at 08:27 PM

This website is the most effective world wide web site.

Posted by: cash advance | November 12, 2010 at 07:43 AM

This website is the most beneficial web portal.

Posted by: cash advances payday loans | November 13, 2010 at 05:58 AM

This website is the right web site.

Posted by: to get a loan with bad credit | November 13, 2010 at 04:02 PM

This website is the most useful ?nternet site.

Posted by: national cash advance | November 14, 2010 at 07:24 AM

This website is the ultimate internet sites.

Posted by: loans online | November 16, 2010 at 12:53 PM

This website is the most effective world-wide-web site.

Posted by: payday loans in canada | November 17, 2010 at 10:36 AM

This website is the most excellent ?nternet site.

Posted by: payday loan in canada | November 18, 2010 at 06:40 AM

This website is the ideal web-site.

Posted by: personal loans bad credit | November 19, 2010 at 11:45 AM

This website is the highest quality website.

Posted by: loans bad credit canada | November 20, 2010 at 06:38 AM

This website is the incredibly best site.

Posted by: fast weight loss tips | November 25, 2010 at 06:26 PM

This website is the top web portal.

Posted by: organic mattress | December 07, 2010 at 07:41 PM

This website is the greatest blog site. bcckvply

Posted by: payday loans | December 18, 2010 at 01:34 PM

This website is the most popular web site. ltrrhhgp

Posted by: school grants | December 19, 2010 at 08:36 AM

This website is the right world-wide-web site. bywwoxit

Posted by: sample resume | December 22, 2010 at 07:04 PM

I am looking for watch football online tv cost. How can I find it?

Posted by: football online | December 24, 2010 at 08:45 PM

Thank you for your information about ???????: ?????????????????3????

Posted by: bbc football | January 04, 2011 at 04:22 AM

Thanks for the info about ???????: ?????????????????3????

Posted by: calendar template | January 08, 2011 at 07:08 AM

Your post about ???????: ?????????????????3???? rocks!

Posted by: payday loan online | January 09, 2011 at 09:31 AM

Amazing post about ???????: ?????????????????3????!

Posted by: digital photo frame | January 09, 2011 at 05:27 PM

Unfogettable post about ???????: ?????????????????3????!

Posted by: fitness gym | January 10, 2011 at 04:23 AM

Unbelievable post about ???????: ?????????????????3????!

Posted by: green home | January 10, 2011 at 11:06 AM

Very very nice post about ???????: ?????????????????3????!

Posted by: hair removal | January 10, 2011 at 06:22 PM

I appreciate all your hard work and your post about ???????: ?????????????????3????!

Posted by: home made pizza | January 11, 2011 at 04:12 AM

Excellent read about ???????: ?????????????????3????!

Posted by: school grants | January 12, 2011 at 08:32 PM

Really good blogpost in relation to ???????: ?????????????????3????!

Posted by: payday loan advance | January 13, 2011 at 07:52 PM

Post a comment