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朝日杯FSを当てるために知っておくべき3つのこと

Asahihaifs

■1■絶対的能力と完成度が問われる
傾向としては1番人気が強く、過去10年間で[3.4.3.0]という成績である。勝率3割、連対率7割、複勝率にするとパーフェクトである。1番人気が好走することで有名なマイルチャンピオンシップよりも高い数字である。理由としては、かなり速い時計での決着となるため、実力の有無がはっきりと出てしまうことが考えられる。

また、過去10年の勝ち馬を見ると、平成16年のマイネルレコルト、平成18年のドリームジャーニー、平成19年のゴスホークケン以外、すべての馬が前走1着していることが分かる。これは現時点での絶対的な能力や完成度が問われるレースになることを示している。重賞ならば最低でも3着以内に好走していること、もちろん条件戦で負けているようでは×。

■2■生粋の逃げ馬は通用しない
ここまで逃げて勝ってきた馬がまったく通用していないことにも注目したい。中山1600mのコース形態上、2コーナーまでの位置取り争いが激化するため、ほぼ毎年、前に行った馬には厳しいペースとなる。さらに、最後の直線に急坂があることによって、スピードだけで押し切るのは難しい。

このレースを逃げ切ったのはミホノブルボンとゴスホークケンだけ。ミホノブルボンは新馬戦では出遅れて差す競馬を経験しているし、ゴスホークケンは前走で抑える競馬をしていた。つまり、スピードを武器にした一本調子の馬ではなく、抑えが利いて、終いの脚を生かすような競馬ができる馬でないとこのレースは勝てない。

ただし、最近のラップタイムを見ると、ここ数年は少し傾向が変わってきていることが分かる。ほぼ確実にハイペースに流れていた過去のレースとは違い、平成17年はなんとスローペース、平成18、19年はミドルペースに落ち着いている。その年ごとのメンバーによって流れが違ってくるのは確かだが、近年になってクラシックを狙う馬が回避して、よりスピードに偏った馬が集まってきている中だけに興味深い傾向である。今年も比較的落ち着いた流れになってしまうのか、もう少し見守りたい。

12.0-11.0-11.3-11.1-11.7-12.3-12.0-12.2(45.4-48.2)H
1:33.6 グラスワンダー
12.5-11.2-11.4-11.8-12.0-12.2-12.2-12.0(46.9-48.4)H
1:35.3 アドマイヤコジーン
12.3-10.4-10.8-11.6-12.0-12.6-12.1-12.9(45.1-49.6)H
1:34.7 エイシンプレストン
12.3-11.2-11.5-11.7-11.7-12.0-11.9-12.2(46.7-47.8)H
1:34.5 メジロベイリー
12.1-10.9-11.4-11.8-11.5-12.1-12.1-11.9(46.2-47.6)H
1:33.8 アドマイヤドン
12.5-11.1-10.7-11.2-11.4-11.7-12.3-12.6(45.5-48.0)H
1:33.5 エイシンチャンプ
12.3-10.7-11.1-11.7-11.7-12.1-11.9-12.2(45.8-47.9)H
1:33.7 コスモサンビーム
12.3-10.8-10.9-11.4-12.0-12.0-11.8-12.2(45.4-48.0)H
1:33.4 マイネルレコルト
12.8-11.5-11.6-11.5-11.6-11.8-11.1-11.8(47.4-46.3)S
1:33.7 フサイチリシャール
12.6-11.0-11.3-11.9-12.1-12.2-11.1-12.2(46.8-47.6)M
1:34.4 ドリームジャーニー
12.3-11.1-11.3-11.6-12.0-11.9-11.3-12.0(46.3-47.2)M
1:33.5 ゴスホークケン

■3■スタミナがないと勝ち切ることはできない
このレースはスピードこそ絶対だが、スタミナもないと勝ち切ることはできない。そのため、1600m以上の距離のレースを経験していることはほぼ必須条件になってくる。ということからも、もし東京スポ-ツ杯(G3 東京1800m)のレースを勝った馬が順調に出走してくれば、間違いなく勝ち負けになるだろう。

現在のランキング順位はこちら

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