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シルクロードSを当てるために知っておくべき3つのこと

Silkroads

■1■先行馬を狙え
開催時期が2月下旬に変更になって以降、過去9年間のラップタイムは以下のとおり。

12.1-10.6-11.1-11.5-12,0-12.2 (33.8-35.7)H
12.1-10.9-10.9-10.9-11.8-12.1 (33.9-34.8)M
12.3-10.7-10.9-11.2-11.6-12.0 (33.9-34.8)M
12.6-10.9-10.8-11.2-11.1-12.0 (34.3-34.3)M
12.5-10.8-11.1-11.1-11.2-11.9 (34.4-34.2)M
12.3-10.7-10.9-11.2-11.3-11.7 (33.9-34.2)M
12.2-11.1-11.1-11.0-11.5-12.0 (34.4-34.5)M
12.0-10.7-10.8-10.7-11.2-12.4 (33.5-34.3)M
12.3-10.6-10.8-11.2-11.9-12.3 (33.7-35.4)H

スプリント戦にしては、ハイペースになっていないことが明白である。ハイペースになったように見える2年にしても、不良とやや重馬場のために上がりが掛かっただけのこと。レースとしては、どの年も前半と後半がほとんどイーブンなペースで流れていることが分かる。

京都の1200mコースは、スタートから最初のコーナーまでの距離が316mと長くも短くもない。3コーナーの丘を越えると、あとはゴールまで下り坂が続く。さらに、内回りコースのため直線が短いこともあって、最も逃げ切りやすい芝1200mコースとなる。あらゆる条件が揃って、前に行った馬にとって有利なレースとなる。とはいえ、やはり重賞ともなると前半が速くなるので、目標にされやすい逃げ馬よりも、先行を狙うべきである。

■2■休み明けの馬は割引
厳寒期の始動戦という意味合いもあって、休み明けの一流馬たちは無理をして仕上げてはこない。その上、重いハンデを課せられるので、苦戦を強いられることになる。対して、2ヶ月以内にレースを使っている馬たちは、コンディションを維持しており、ハンデもそれほど重くはないはずで、一流馬相手にも好走が可能となる。ちなみに、開催時期が2月下旬に変更になって以来、過去9年の連対馬全ては、前走で昨年の12月以降のレースに使われていた。前走からの間隔が開きすぎている馬は割り引いて考えた方が賢明か。

■3■淀短距離S組は負けた馬に妙味あり
番組のローテーション上、淀短距離Sが最も有力なステップレースとなる。ところが、淀短距離S→シルクロードSという連勝は、昨年のファイングレイン以外にはない(それまでは2着が最高)。それは淀短距離Sが別定戦で、シルクロードSがハンデ戦であることと関係があるだろう。淀短距離Sで負けて、ハンデが軽くなったシルクロードSで勝つというパターンはこれからも続くだろうし、その逆もまた然りである。

現在のランキング順位はこちら

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