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天皇賞春を当てるために知っておくべき3つのこと

Haruten

■1■真の名馬と真の騎手が一体となって
真の王者を目指し、古馬が集結する春の天皇賞。数々の名勝負が演じられ、過去の勝ち馬には歴戦の名馬が名を連ねる。淀の3200mという舞台で勝利するためには、真の実力を持っていなければならない。「スタミナ」はもちろんのこと、高速馬場に対応できる「スピード」、「瞬発力」、そして、「スローペースに折り合える精神力」を備えていることが求められる。このうちのどれか1つでも欠いては、天皇賞春のタイトルを手にすることはできない。

また、長距離戦であるため、騎手の腕も問われる。道中の駆け引き、ペース判断、仕掛けのタイミングまで、騎手がコントロールしなければならない(することができる)要素が多く、騎手の腕の差がレースの明暗を分けてしまうこともある。過去の勝利騎手を見てもらえれば分かるように、いずれも名手と呼ばれるのにふさわしい騎手たちである。

つまり、天皇賞春は「真の名馬と真の騎手が一体となって」、初めて勝利することができるレースである。

■2■ステイヤーはピークが長い
ステップレースである阪神大賞典での1着馬と2着馬の、天皇賞春での成績を比較してみると明確な傾向が見て取れる。

阪神大賞典1着馬の天皇賞春での成績【6・0・3・3】
阪神大賞典2着馬の天皇賞春での成績【0・3・1・6】

以下の2点が導き出せるだろう。 1)阪神大賞典での勝ち馬は、本番である天皇賞春の勝ち馬と結びつきが非常に強い 2)阪神大賞典の2着馬が、本番で逆転する(巻き返す)ことは難しい なぜこのような現象が起こるかというと、「ステイヤーのピークは長い」からである。

ステイヤーはピークの期間が比較的長いため、阪神大賞典での体調を天皇賞春でも維持することができるのである。阪神大賞典を勝った実力馬のピークが続いている以上、力負けしてしまった馬にとって逆転することは難しく、他の路線から余程の有力馬が出て来ない限り、阪神大賞典を勝った馬は本番の天皇賞春をも制する可能性が高いということになる。

■3■極限の仕上がりが求められる
天皇賞春は3200mという距離ゆえに最も苛酷なレースであり、勝つためには極限の仕上がりが求められる。ギリギリまで絞り込むぐらいの調教を施されたピークの状態において、自身の能力を100%発揮することができなければ勝つことはできない。直前の追い切りをさらっと済ませてしまっているような馬では、3200mの長丁場を乗り切ることができるのかどうか不安が残る。もちろん、休み明けの馬にとっても厳しいレースとなるだろう。

■参考として
1、前2走のいずれかで2500m以上のレースを走っていないと×
2、平成7年のライスシャワーを除くと、全ての勝ち馬は4、5歳馬
3、前走成績は5着以内 4、重賞を勝っていない馬は×

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