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皐月賞を当てるために知っておくべき3つのこと

Satsuki1

■1■弥生賞の勝ち馬は、皐月賞では勝てない!?
弥生賞は皐月賞と同じ中山2000mという舞台で行われるが、弥生賞を勝って、そのまま皐月賞をも制する馬は思いのほか少ない。その世代の素質馬が集結するハイレベルの弥生賞を制した馬は、普通に考えて、弥生賞と同じ走りができれば皐月賞はほぼ当確である。それでも、過去10年で弥生賞と皐月賞を連勝した馬は、アグネスタキオンとディープインパクトの2頭しかいない。

なぜこのような現象が起こるかというと、2つの理由が考えられる。ひとつは、弥生賞と皐月賞では馬場状態が全く異なるからである。

皐月賞における、過去10年のラスト3ハロンのラップを並べてみたい。

平成10年 36.7
平成11年 36.0
平成12年 36.3
平成13年 35.8
平成14年 35.8
平成15年 34.7
平成16年 34.4
平成17年 34.5
平成18年 35.7
平成19年 35.9
平成20年 35.2

平成15年から17年は速い上がりの瞬発力勝負になっているが、それ以外の年は終いが掛かる競馬になっている。これは皐月賞時の馬場によるところが大きい。皐月賞当日の馬場は、最終日ということもあって、全体的に重くなっているのが通常である。特に、最も良く使われる3~4コーナーにかけては、見た目以上に馬場の傷みは激しく、当然力の要る馬場となっている。

つまり、手脚の軽い、瞬発力で勝負したい馬にとっては足かせとなり、逆にダート血統に代表されるようなパワー優先の馬にとっては願ってもいない、ほぼ1ヶ月前に行われた弥生賞当日の馬場とは全くと言ってよいほど異なった重い馬場になってしまうのである。

もうひとつは、弥生賞はかなりの状態に仕上がっていないと勝てない、その上、弥生賞では厳しいレースを強いられるということである。

クラシックを狙う有力馬が一堂に会する弥生賞は、当然のことながら、中途半端な仕上がりでは勝つことはできない。弥生賞を勝つためにはかなりの仕上げを施さなければならず、本番前に仕上げられた(仕上がってしまった)馬は、本番に向けて下降線を辿ってしまう。サラブレッドのピークはそれほど長くない。つまり、弥生賞を勝つために仕上げてしまうと、そのあとが続かないということである。さらに、それまでは楽な相手と楽な競馬しか経験してこなかった馬が、弥生賞で初めて厳しいレースを強いられるので、その肉体的、精神的な反動が次のレースで噴出してしまう。

その典型的な例は、平成12年の弥生賞を制したフサイチゼノンではないか。田原成貴元調教師と関口オーナーの間で一悶着あった馬であるが、フサイチゼノンは弥生賞の時点で既に仕上がってしまっていた。田原調教師はフサイチゼノンにかなりの素質を感じていただろうし、初年度である厩舎を盛り上げるためにも、弥生賞も勝って本番に臨みたかったに違いない。しかし、その勝ちを焦る気持ちが、フサイチゼノンを追い詰めてしまったのだ。肉体的にも精神的にもピークを過ぎてしまったフサイチゼノンは、もはや皐月賞に出走する状態にはなかった。関口オーナーに相談をしなかったのは田原元調教師の落ち度だが、出走を取りやめたのは英断であったと思う。

フジキセキ
ダンスインザダーク
フサイチゼノン
アグネスタキオン
アドマイヤオーラ

以上は、弥生賞を勝った後に故障を発生した馬たちである。厳しいレースである弥生賞を勝つことは、高い素質、能力を持つことの証明であるが、一方で失うものも大きい。そういう意味で、弥生賞馬はまず疑ってかかるべきである。

■2■皐月賞馬の条件
皐月賞馬に求められる条件は、以下の4つ。

スピード
パワー
器用さ
完成度

まず、「スピード」については、中山競馬場の内回りを使うコースは先行馬に有利であり、前にポジションするために秀でたスピードが求められる。スタミナに関しては、2000mまでこなせるマイラーであれば、十分に勝負になるはず。

「パワー」については、上にも述べたとおり、皐月賞は最終日に行われるため、馬場がかなり重くなっていることが多い。そのため、荒れ馬場をこなせるパワーが必要となる。さらに、1周1666m、直線310mという小さなスケールのトラックで行われるため、上手に立ち回りながら流れに乗ることのできる「器用さ」を備えているかどうかも問われる。

また、「完成度」の高い馬ということも挙げられる。その傾向は年々強くなってきており、この時期においてあらゆる面において完成されていなければ、このレースを勝つことは難しい。素質があり、なおかつ完成度が高いことが求められる。

■3■参考データとして
・前走が1800m未満の馬は×
・2月以降に1400m以下の短距離を一度でも使っていた馬は×
・連対率が50%を超えていなければ×

現在のランキング順位はこちら

|

Comments

こうして拝読すると、やはりディープインパクトは別格の馬だったのだなぁと改めて思います……。

Posted by: 山辺響 | April 14, 2009 at 10:08 AM

山辺響さん

そうですね。

ディープインパクトは別格です。

実はアグネスタキオンは弥生賞で激走したので、皐月賞時にはかなり状態が落ちていました。

弥生賞→皐月賞をどのように乗り切るかが大きなポイントなのですよね。

Posted by: 治郎丸敬之 | April 15, 2009 at 01:50 AM

今週は武幸四郎で如何でしょうか?(笑)
理由:
 武幸四郎は3年周期で3歳馬GⅠを獲っている。
 秋、春、秋と来ているので、今度は春かな?
 でトライアンフマーチ1着固定の馬券をいくつか
 買ってみたい。(笑)

Posted by: はやひで | April 15, 2009 at 08:36 AM

弥生賞やスプリングSはスローでしたから、今一信用しがたがく、軸は若葉S組がいいかなと思っています。

Posted by: ほくぼ | April 15, 2009 at 11:04 AM

はやひでさん

こんにちは。

よくぞそんな幸四郎の法則を発見しましたね。

ま、春と言っても、
ダービーってことはないでしょうから(笑)

トライアンフはキョウエイマーチの仔なのですね。

Posted by: 治郎丸敬之 | April 16, 2009 at 10:35 AM

ほくぼさん

こんにちは。

おっしゃる通り、弥生賞、スプリングS、きさらぎ賞ともに、あまり厳しい(レベルの高い)レースではありませんでした。

若葉S組はノーマークになっているので、
もし突っ込んできたら凄いことになりますね。

どんなレースになるのか、今から楽しみです。

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