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桜花賞を当てるために知っておくべき3つのこと

Oukasyo

■1■勝ち馬は「2敗以内」が目安
勝ち馬の条件としては、「2敗以内」であることが挙げられる。最近は、素質馬はあまりレース数を使わない傾向が顕著になってきており、桜花賞でも浅いキャリアで臨んできた馬が活躍している。数を使わない以上、レースに使うからにはきちんと勝てる状態に仕上げられているはずで、それでいて2敗以上しているということは、能力がないか、どこか足りない部分があるかのどちらかということになる。だからこそ、桜花賞を勝てる素質があるかどうかを見極めるためには、「2敗以内」という数字を目安にしたい。

さらに、「新馬戦を勝っている」、「牡馬を相手に勝利している」ことも、素質の有無を問うための材料にしてもよいだろう。

■2■前走の人気に注目
過去10年間で桜花賞を勝った馬の「前走の人気」を見ると、明らかな傾向があることが分かる。なんと10頭中6頭が1人気であり、2、3番人気が2頭、わずかに4、6番人気が2頭と、それ以下の人気であった馬は1頭も勝っていない。連対馬(2着馬)に目を向けても、7頭までが前走3番人気以内に推されている。

最も桜花賞に直結しやすいとされていたチューリップ賞だけを見ても、その勝ち馬よりも、人気に推されていたが負けてしまった馬の方が、本番での好走率が高い。つまり、前走で何着だったかという「実績」よりも、前走で何番人気に推されたかという「素質」、もしくは「資質」に注目すべきなのである。

■3■関東馬はよほど力が抜けていないと苦しい
阪神ジュべナイルフィリーズと同じく、関東馬がこのレースを制するのは非常に難しい。この時期の牝馬にとって、長距離輸送の影響は想像以上に大きく(特に初の長距離輸送になるケースが多い)、そのディスアドバンテージを乗り越えてまで勝利するには、力が相当抜けていることが必要とされる。

現在のランキング順位はこちら

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Comments

すごい参考になりました!
なるほど、という事が多いです

Posted by: 競馬必勝法の案内所 | April 07, 2009 at 08:03 PM

競馬必勝法の案内所さん

ありがとうございます。

そうおっしゃっていただけると嬉しいです。

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