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NHKマイルCを当てるために知っておくべき3つのこと

Nhkmilec

■1■マイル以上のスタミナと完成度の高さが求められる
過去13年の優勝馬の前走距離と着順を見てみたい。

タイキフォーチュン→毎日杯(2000m1着 
シーキングザパール→ニュージーランドT(1400m1着
エルコンドルパサー→ニュージーランドT(1400m1着
シンボリインディ→マーガレットS(1600m1着
イーグルカフェ→ニュージーランドT(1600m)7着
クロフネ→ 毎日杯(2000m1着
テレグノシス→スプリングS(1800m)2着
ウインクリューガー→毎日杯(2000m)8着
キングカメハメハ→毎日杯(2000m1着
ラインクラフト→桜花賞(1600m1着
ロジック→ニュージーランドT(1600m)3着
ピンクカメオ→桜花賞(1600m)14着
ディープスカイ→毎日杯(1800m1着

シーキングザパールとエルコンドルパサー以外の馬は、前走で1600m以上のレースをステップにしている。そして、半数以上の馬は前走でも勝っているということが分かる。

最初に、ほとんどの勝ち馬が前走で1600m以上のレースをステップにしているのは、東京競馬場のマイル戦では、スピードだけではなくスタミナがないと勝ち切ることはできないからである。特にNHKマイルカップはハイペースになることが多く、最後のひと伸びができるスタミナや底力が問われることになる。

つまり、マイル戦がギリギリといったスピードタイプの馬ではなく、中距離を走り切ることのできるスタミナを兼ね備えていなくては、NHKマイルカップを制することは出来ない。例外的存在であるシーキングザパールにしてもエルコンドルパサーにしても、1600m以上の距離をこなせる十分なスタミナを兼備していた。このレースに出走してくる以上、どの馬も豊富なスピードを有しているのは当然と言えば当然で、最後に勝敗を分けるのはスタミナの有無なのである。

ほとんどの勝ち馬が前走でも勝っているのは、この時点での完成度の高さが勝ち馬に求められるからである。ポロポロと取りこぼしていたり、アッサリと負けてしまっていたりする馬では勝負にならない。G1レースである皐月賞、桜花賞組は別として、前走をキッチリと勝って臨んで来られないようでは、非常に高いレベルの要求されるこのレースでの好走は厳しい。

■2■ニュージーランドT組は追い込み切れなかった馬が狙い
中山のマイル戦に条件変更されて以来、ニュージーランドトロフィーでの着順が、そのまま本番へと結びつかなくなっている。中山のマイル戦と府中のマイル戦ではあまりにも条件が違いすぎて、ニュージーランドトロフィーでの成績をそのまま信用することができないということである。これまでのパターンから述べると(イーグルカフェ、ロジック)、コース適性の差でニュージーランドトロフィー(中山1600m)を追い込み切れず負けてしまった馬については、府中のマイル戦に変わる本番では巻き返せる可能性があると考えてよい。

■3■1200m戦→マイルのG1は×
東京競馬場の1600mという距離で行われるG1レース(NHKマイルカップ、安田記念、フェブラリーS)を考える上で、前走で1200mのレースを使っていた馬について触れなければならないだろう。たとえばNHKマイルカップにおいては、前走がファルコンS(中京1200m)という馬が出走してくる。安田記念だと高松宮記念(中京1200m)がよくあるケースだ。このように1200m戦→マイルのG1というローテーションを踏んできた馬は、たとえ前走で好走していたとしても、本番においてはほぼ間違いなく凡走してしまう。

理由としては以下の2つが考えられる。

1)求められるスタミナの違い
2)道中の体感ペースの違い

つまり、1200mのレースとマイルのG1レースとでは、勝ち馬に求められるスタミナとレースでのペースが絶対的に異なる。

1)G1のようなレベルの高いレースを勝ち切るには、スピードだけではなく、最後のひと伸びができるスタミナや底力が問われることになる。1600mのG1レースを勝つには、1600m以上の距離を走り切ることができるだけのスタミナが必要とされるのである。そのため、1200m→1600mという距離にしてみればたった400mの違いであるが、その数字以上に、勝つために要求されるスタミナに開きがあるのである。

2)道中におけるペースが明らかに異なるため、体感ペース(ラップ)が違ってくる。1200mのレースでは、スタートしてから一息でスピードに任せて一気に走り切ってしまえばいいが、1600mのレース、特に東京のマイルでは、道中でタメの利いた走りをしなければ最後の坂で脚が上がってしまう。1200m戦を使った馬は、一気に走り切ろうとするラップを体が記憶してしまい、次のレースでもそういった走りをしてしまうのである。馬の感覚としては、1200m戦のつもりで思いきって飛ばしていると、実は1200m地点でゴールではなく、あと400mの直線が目の前に広がっていたというイメージが分かりやすいだろう。いくら騎手に叱咤激励されても、そこからラストスパートするだけのスタミナや気力はすでに残っていないのである。

このように、1200m戦→1600mのG1(特に東京競馬場でのマイルG1)というローテーションは、あまりにもレースの質や条件が違うために、馬が戸惑い、その力を発揮することなく凡走してしまうことになる。

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