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ダービーを当てるために知っておくべき3つのこと

Derby

■1■乗り替わりは大きなデメリット
「すべての牡馬は生まれた直後から、ダービーを獲るという目標に向かって育てられる」と言っても過言ではない。すべての馴致、育成、調教という点は、ダービーに向かって線でつながっているのである。その線上において、騎手が実戦のレースにおいて競馬を教えていくという役割は大きい。道中を走るリズム、息を入れるタイミングを教え、馬群の中で走ること、馬群を割ることに対する恐怖を取り除くなど、レースをうまく運ぶためのコツを教えていくのは騎手の役割である。

それゆえだろうか、ダービーで乗り替わりがあった馬は、これまでに勝ったことがない。過去12年間で【0・5・3・63】という散々たる結果である。このデータだけを取っても、デビューから競馬を教えてきた騎手が、本番であるダービーで乗り替わることに、どれだけのデメリットがあるかが分かるはずである。

また、連対に絡んだ4頭の内訳は、平成13年のダンツフレーム、平成14年のシンボリクリスエス、平成16年のハーツクライ、平成18年のアドマイヤメイン、平成19年のアサクサキングスとなる。アドマイヤメインとアサクサキングスを除いて、乗り替わり前の騎手が騎乗する馬に、乗り替わられた馬が先着していないということは面白い事実である。

たとえば、平成14年のシンボリクリスエスは武豊騎手から岡部騎手に乗り替わったが、武豊騎手はタニノギムレットでダービーを制した。また、平成16年のハーツクライは安藤勝己騎手から横山典騎手に乗り替わったが、安藤騎手はキングカメハメハでダービーを勝った。このように、ある騎手が乗り替わる前の馬に、乗り替わった後の馬が先着したことはない。つまり、ダービーを勝つような馬は、どんなことがあってもジョッキーが手放すことはない、もしくは手を離れることはないということである。注)平成13年のダンツフレームの藤田騎手はダービーに騎乗していない。

■2■経験を積んだベテランジョッキー
過去の勝利騎手のほとんどは、経験を積んだベテランジョッキーである。あの武豊騎手でさえ12年もかかったように、ダービーを勝つことは他のG1レースとは比べものにならないほど難しいことなのである。円熟した騎手が活躍している理由として、

1、ダービーという異様な雰囲気の中で、平常心で騎乗できる精神力が求められる
2、ダービーを勝つためには騎手としてのあらゆる経験を生かさなければならない

ということが考えられる。 それ以前に、ダービーを獲れるだけの器の馬を依頼されなければならないし、多数を依頼された場合には、その中からダービーを勝てそうな馬を選択していかなければならない。つまり、ジョッキーとしてのあらゆる技術や経験が求められることになるのである。だからこそ、ダービーというレースは一朝一夕で勝てるはずはなく、騎手にとっても憧れのレースとなり得るのである。

■3■皐月賞からの直行組
ダービーでは皐月賞からの直行組が好走することが多い。直行組以外としては、以下の2つのパターンが考えられる。

1)皐月賞のあとにトライアルレースをはさんだ馬
2)別路線組

最近の傾向として、1)の皐月賞からダービーの間にレースをはさむ馬は少なくなってきている。ほとんどの有力馬がダービーに直行し余力を残している中で、トライアルを使うということは、それだけで十分なディスアドバンテージになるからである。それでも敢えてトライアルを使うとすれば、本番のダービーでは勝負にならないことを見越した上でのことであり、メンバーが落ちるトライアルで賞金を確実に稼ごうという意図が読み取れる。実力的にも足りず、余力も残っていない馬が、本番であるダービーで好走することが難しいことは想像に難くない。

2)の別路線組では、最近ではNHKマイルカップか青葉賞を勝ってきた馬の活躍が目立つ。NHKマイルカップからはキングカメハメハとディープスカイという大物が出ているように、決して相性の悪いレースではない。府中のマイル戦を勝ち切れるスタミナがあれば、2400mもこなせるということである。今後も注目のステップレースとなるには違いないが、中2週というローテーションを考えると、皐月賞からの直行組に軍配が上がるだろう。

また、青葉賞からは古いところではエアダブリンが、最近ではシンボリクリスエス、ゼンノロブロイ、アドマイヤメインが本番でも好走している。同条件を勝ってきた馬なので当然といえば当然なのだが、完成度がやっと追いついてきたという素質馬が多い。しかし、まだダービーの勝ち馬が出ていないのも事実である。

結論としては、1)のパターンは本番のダービーでは勝負にならず、狙うとすれば2)のパターンということになる。ただし、勝ち馬に限って言えば、皐月賞からの直行組を狙うのが定石だろう。

■参考データとして
1、前走G1レース(皐月賞かNHKマイルカップ)以外で負けている馬は×
2、2000m以上未経験の馬は×
3、前2走で連対なしの馬は×

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