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ヴィクトリアマイルを当てるために知っておくべき3つのこと

Victoriamile

■1■短距離馬がもってしまう
府中のマイル戦といえば、字ズラ以上にスタミナが要求されるレースなのだが、ことヴィクトリアマイルに関していえば、そうとは言い切れない結果が出ている。一昨年と昨年はいずれもフジキセキ産駒が勝利しているように、どちらかというとマイル以下を得意とする馬が勝ち切っているのだ。その理由はレース自体のペースにある。

12.6-11.2-11.6-12.1-12.2-11.4-11.3-11.6(47.5-46.5)S
1:34.0 ダンスインザムード
12.3-10.8-11.7-11.8-11.6-11.2-11.2-11.9(46.6-45.9)M
1:32.5 コイウタ
12.4-11.3-12.0-12.2-12.1-11.2-11.0-11.5(47.9-45.8)S
1.33.7 エイジアンウインズ

いずれのレースも前半が極端に遅くて、後半が速いという、G1レースのマイル戦では珍しい後傾ラップであることが分かる。道中で引っ掛かることや東京競馬場の長い最後のストレッチを心配して、牝馬同士であることを含め、あまりガンガンやり合うような競馬にならないからである。たとえ府中のマイル戦であっても、これだけ前半がゆったりと流れると、ラスト800mぐらいのスピード勝負になってしまう。よって、マイル以下に適性があるような短距離馬でも、なんとかもってしまうというレースになりやすいということだ。逆に言うと、こういう流れでは、マイル以上に適性のある中距離馬にとっては、出し抜けを食らいやすいレースとなる。

■2■近走で牡馬を相手に好勝負出来ていた馬
過去の勝ち馬であるダンスインザムードとコイウタに共通する条件は、「近走で牡馬を相手に勝ち負けできていた」ということである。第1回の勝ち馬ダンスインザムードは、天皇賞秋3着、マイルCS4着、マイラーズC2着と、牡馬を相手に近走で互角に走っていた。第2回の勝ち馬コイウタも前走はダービー卿チャレンジで2着に入っていた。さらに言えば、ダンスインザムードの2着したエアメサイアも、前々走の中山記念で牡馬の3着と好走していた。牝馬同士のG1レースであるがゆえ、牡馬と好勝負出来ているということの意味は大きい。

■3■関東馬有利?
さらに言うと、過去の勝ち馬であるダンスインザムードもコイウタは関東馬である。ついでに、コイウタの2着したアサヒライジングも関東馬。これだけ西高東低が叫ばれている中において、新設から2年とも関東馬による制覇というのは珍しい。今後、関西馬に巻き返されてしまうことを承知で書くと(実際に昨年は関西馬のワンツー)、やはり輸送がない分、牝馬は仕上げやすいということだろう。長距離輸送を気にすることなく、ビシッと追い切れることが、関東馬の好走に繋がっているのではないだろうか。

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