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安田記念を当てるために知っておくべき3つのこと

Yasuda

■1■外国調教馬の活躍
平成5年から国際競走として行われ、当初は欧州調教馬が大勢を占めていたが、ここに来て香港調教馬の活躍・台頭が目立つ。過去10年で外国調教馬の成績は【2・2・2・18】。香港から2頭の勝ち馬が出ている。もちろん、勝負になると思うからこそ遠征してくるわけで、たとえ人気がなくとも要注意である。

香港競馬はオセアニア産のスピード馬を輸入しながら、全体のレベルも年々上がっている。短距離路線に関して言えば、日本よりは層が厚く、スプリント戦ではすでに歯が立たないというのが現状だろう。マイル戦では、贔屓目に見てほぼ互角といったところだろうか。府中のマイル戦はスタミナも必要とされるため、サイレントウィットネスやグッドババのような小回りが得意なスプリンターではなく、少し長めの距離を得意とするブリッシュラックのようなマイラーを狙うべきである。

■2■高松宮記念勝ち馬の不振

平成12年 キングヘイロー    3着(3番人気)
平成13年 トロットスター    14着(4番人気)
平成15年 ビリーヴ       12着(9番人気)
平成17年 アドマイヤマックス 12着(4番人気)
平成18年 オレハマッテルゼ  10着(1番人気)
平成19年 スズカフェニックス  5着(1番人気)

高松宮記念が3月に施行されるようになった平成12年以降、高松宮記念勝ち馬が安田記念に出走してきた際の成績は上の通り。キングヘイローの3着が最高着順であり、スズカフェニックスそれ以外の馬は二桁着順に惨敗している。高松宮記念勝ち馬が安田記念で活躍できない理由としては、以下の2つが考えられる。

1、高松宮記念勝ち馬は本質的にはスプリンターである
当たり前のことだが、高松宮記念を勝つような馬は本質的にはスプリンターである。安田記念が行われる府中の1600m戦はマイル以上のスタミナを要求されるため、スプリンターはガス欠を起こしてしまう。また、中京競馬場1200mコース(小回り)と東京競馬場1600m(大回り)では、道中の流れが全く違うため、前走で高松宮記念を勝つようなリズムで走った馬は、安田記念ではリズムの違いに戸惑い、凡走してしまうのである。

2、高松宮記念を目標に仕上げられているため余力が残っていない
高松宮記念は、レースを使い込んで仕上げてきた馬が勝つ傾向がある。そのため、2ヶ月後の安田記念までに余力が残っておらず、体調が下降線を辿ってしまう馬が多い。

■3■馬場の内外でのトラックバイアスに注目
安田記念は、馬場が傷んできた時期に行われるため、馬場の内外によって有利不利が出てきてしまう傾向がある。たとえば、ブラックホークが大外から差し切った平成13年、アドマイヤコジーンが復活した平成14年は、馬場の内側の傷んだ場所を通らねばならなかった馬が直線で失速し、馬場の外を回ることができた馬にとって有利になった。対照的に、アグネスデジタルがレコードで勝利した平成15年は、仮柵が移動されたため、今度は内側の馬場の良い部分を通った馬が有利になった。このように、枠順や通った場所によって勝敗が分かれてしまうことが多く、馬場の内外での差(トラックバイアス)に注目するべきレースである。

しかし、今年はダービーウィークに引き続き、安田記念もCコースで行われるため、馬場の内外の差(トラックバイアス)はほとんどないと考えてよいだろう。

現在のランキング順位はこちら


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Comments

先日はご一緒させていただきありがとうございました。

BLOGをされているということで拝見させていただきましたが、素晴らしい内容ですね。ココ知ってからお会いしたかったなぁ…。

これからはちょくちょく覗きに伺いますのでよろしくお願いします。

Posted by: Special Week | June 01, 2009 at 09:44 PM

Special Weekさん

ありがとうございます。

こちらこそ、先日はお会いできて嬉しかったです。

私の勝手な都合で早上がりして失礼しました。

ぜひ次回はもっとゆっくりお話しましょうね。

それにしてもスペシャルウィーク産駒の活躍は著しいですね。

私も理想のサラブレッドは何を隠そうスペシャルウィークです。

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