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秋華賞を当てるために知っておくべき3つのこと

Syuka

■1■ジョッキーの腕が大きく結果を左右する
京都の芝2000m(内回り)に変更された年以降の、前半5Fと後半5Fのラップを比較してみたい。前傾ペースとは前半のラップの方が速く、後傾ペースとは後半のラップの方が速いレースのことを示す。

平成8年  58.7-59.4 →前傾ペース
平成9年  59.2-60.9 →前傾ペース
平成10年 61.9-60.5 →後傾ペース
平成11年 58.4-60.9 →前傾ペース
平成12年 60.8-59.1 →後傾ペース
平成13年 58.4-60.1 →前傾ペース
平成14年 59.0-59.1 →平均ペース
平成15年 59.8-59.3 →平均ペース
平成16年 59.9-58.5 →後傾ペース
平成17年 60.1-59.1 →後傾ペース
平成18年 58.4-59.8 →前傾ペース
平成19年 59.2-59.9 →平均ペース
平成20年 58.6-59.8 →前傾ペース

このように、平成14年と15年、19年は前後半が均一な平均ペースであるが、それ以外の年は、前傾ペースと後傾ペースがランダムに繰り返されていることが分かる。開幕2週目の絶好の馬場と短い直線を考慮に入れると、基本的には先行馬にとっては非常に有利に働くコースである。しかし、逆にそのことを意識しすぎると、各馬の仕掛けが早くなり、極端なハイペースが創出されることになる。

また、道中のペースの緩急も激しく移り変わる。たとえば昨年の秋華賞では、道中(6ハロン目)でなんと13秒台のラップが刻まれた。スタートから2ハロン目は過去5年間で最速なだけに、ペースが速いと思わせておいて、急激に遅くなるというアップダウンの激しいレースであった。

平成19年 ダイワスカーレット
12.3 - 10.4 - 11.5 - 12.2 - 12.8 - 13.6 - 12.4 -11.3 - 11.1 - 11.5

わずかな展開の綾によって、ペースの緩急が激しく移り変わり、前に行った馬に有利な流れになったり、一転して差し脚が生きる展開になったりする。こういうレースでは、馬をコントロールする技術やペース判断に長けたジョッキーの腕が大きく結果を左右することになる。レースの位置取りや道中での駆け引きなどを含め、騎手が占めるウエイトは大きいのだ。

■2■スピードの持続が求められる
この秋華賞でサンデーサイレンス産駒が苦戦を強いられたのは有名な話である。過去12回行われた秋華賞に60頭のサンデーサイレンス産駒が出走して、平成15年のワンツーフィニッシュと平成17年にエアメサイアの勝利があるが、ほとんどの馬は4着以下に沈んでいる。1番人気に推されたトゥザビクトリーやダンスインザムードというビッグネームすらも惨敗しているのが、この秋華賞である。一昨年も1番人気に推されたアドマイヤキッスが4着と凡走した。

【2・2・1・55】 連対率6%

この数字は、サンデーサイレンス産駒の秋華賞における成績である。サンデーサイレンス産駒の秋華賞での連対率は6%という極めて低い数値を示す。他のG1レースと比較してみても、10%を切るのはNHKマイルカップぐらいで、それ以外のG1レースではほとんど20%以上の連対率となる。たとえば、同じ牝馬限定G1レースであるエリザベス女王杯の31%と比べると、サンデーサイレンス産駒の秋華賞での不振は明らかになる。

サンデーサイレンス産駒がこのレースを苦手とした理由はただひとつ。小回りのゴチャつきやすいコースで、スピードの持続が極限まで求められるレースになりやすいからである。サンデーサイレンス産駒は、ゆっくり行って終いを伸ばすレースには滅法強いのだが、スタートからゴールまで速いラップを刻み続けなければならないレースを苦手としたからだ。つまり、秋華賞は瞬発力ではなく、地脚の強さで勝負する馬にとって有利なレースである。

■3■強い馬が勝つとは限らないレース
過去12年の秋華賞は全てフルゲートで行われたが、内外に分けた枠順別の勝率、連対率は次頁のとおり。
1~4枠 【3・3・7・84】 勝率3% 連対率6%
5~8枠 【9・9・5・95】 勝率8% 連対率16%

コーナーを4つ回るコースにもかかわらず、外枠の勝率、連対率が内枠を圧倒している。外枠から、外々を回った馬が意外と好走しやすいのは2つの理由が考えられる。ひとつは、道中が厳しいペースになりやすいため、馬群が縦長になりやすく、外枠を引いた馬も外々を回されることが少ないということ。

もうひとつは、勝負所である3コーナー入口と4コーナーが狭くなっているため、馬が密集しやすく、内枠を引いた馬は窮屈なレースを強いられることが多いということ。力のある馬であれば外を回した方が、内でゴチャついたり、前が閉まってしまったりというアクシデントが少ない。4つコーナーの小回りコースである以上、内枠有利が基本ではあるのだが、総じて外枠の方がレースを進めやすいということである。

京都の芝2000m(内回り)というコース設定で行われることを抜きにして、秋華賞は語れないのだろう。このコースは極端な展開になりやすく、全ての馬が実力を発揮することが難しい。だからこそ、騎手の間では、1番人気の馬に乗っては臨みたくないコースとされている。つまり、秋華賞は必ずしも強い馬が勝つとは限らないレースなのである。

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