« 「ガラスの競馬場」CLASSICがオープンします。 | Main | 芝の上を走るように »

阪神ジュべナイルFを当てるために知っておくべき3つのこと

Hjf

■1■2つの経験
平成3年より従来の阪神3歳Sは牝馬限定に変更され、さらに平成13年より名称を「阪神ジュベナイルフィリーズ」と改められた。わずか数戦のキャリアで臨んでくる馬がほとんどで、各馬の力の比較が難しい。実はこれといった傾向はないのだが、以下2つの経験をしている馬にとっては、かなり有利なレースになる。このレースを勝つためには、いずれかを経験していることが望ましい。

1、1600m以上の距離
2、坂のあるコース

「早熟の短距離馬」が多く出走してくるため、このレースに臨むまでのステップとして、1600mよりも短い距離を使ってくる馬が多い。これまでにマイルの距離や直線に坂のあるコースを走ったことがない馬たちが、いきなりG1レースの厳しい流れの中に放り込まれ、直線に坂のある1600mのコースを走ると、確実にスタミナ切れを起こすことになる。1600m以上の距離、もしくは直線に坂のあるようなタフなレースを走った経験がないと、このレースで勝ち切ることは難しい。

■2■抽選をクリアした馬の台頭
これは来週の朝日杯フューチュリティSにも当てはまることだが、抽選をクリアした馬、滑り込み出走が叶った馬たちには着目すべきである。それは運が良いからということではなく、彼ら彼女たちの「ローテーション」と「成長曲線」に秘密が隠されているからだ。

まず「ローテーション」については、抽選をクリアしてきた馬は、これまでの出走過程において無理を強いられていない馬が多いということである。多いと書いたのは、全ての馬がそうではないからである。本番に出走する権利を取るために、何度もレースに出走してそれでも抽選待ちになってしまった馬もたくさんいるはずだ(こういう馬は能力的に疑問符がつく)。そのあたりは1頭1頭を検証する必要があるが、例えば昨年のトールポピーはキャリア3戦、ゴスホークケンは2戦、レーヴダムールに至ってはわずか1戦であった。

これが何を意味するかというと、これらの馬たちは、本番であるG1レースに合わせたローテーションを組んで走らされてきたのではなく、自分たちの仕上がりに合わせて大事に使われてきたということである。人間の都合ではなく、馬優先の余裕を持たせたローテーションであったということだ。あくまでもその延長線上に、たまたまG1レースがあったということに他ならない。だからこそ、そこまでの過程において無理をさせてきていないからこそ、馬に余力が十分に残っているということになる。

次に「成長曲線」についても、余裕を持たせたローテーションということとリンクしてくる。馬の仕上がりに合わせるとは、馬の成長に合わせたローテーションということである。特に若駒の間は、レースを使うことによって、成長を大きく阻害してしまうことがある。2歳戦~クラシックにかけて、数多くのレースを使うことは、マイナス材料にこそなれ、決してプラス材料にはならない。レース経験の少なさは、馬の能力と騎手の手綱で補うことが出来る。つまり、本番のレースに出走するために、馬をキッチリ仕上げて勝ってきた馬たちに比べ、成長を阻害しない程度のゆったりとした仕上がりで走ってきた馬たちは、上積みが見込めるばかりではなく、本番のレースへ向けて上向きの成長カーブで出走してくることが可能になるのだ。

これらのことからも、余力が十分に残っていて、上向きの成長カーブを辿っている馬が、もし抽選をクリアして出走することが出来たとしたら、本番でも好走する確率が高いことは自明の理であろう。これが2歳戦からクラシック戦線においては、抽選をクリアして出走してきた馬、滑り込みで出走してきた馬には大いに注目すべき理由である。

■3■関東馬とっては厳しいレース
この時期の牝馬にとって、長距離輸送をしてレースに臨むことは条件的に厳しい。よって、関東馬がこのレースを勝つには、関西に一度遠征した経験があるか、もしくは実力が一枚も二枚も上でなくてはならない。現に過去10年で、初長距離輸送でこのレースを制した関東馬は、ヒシアマゾン、メジロドーベル、スティンガーという、その後も活躍した名牝たちばかりである。彼女たちくらいの実力を持っていないと、初めて長距離輸送をして、並みいる関西馬たちを倒すことはできない。逆に言うと、このレースを勝った関東馬は相当な実力の持ち主であるということになる。

現在のランキング順位はこちら

|

Comments

確かに08年オウケンブルースリ09年スリーロールスこの2頭もそうですよね(^_^ゞ

1600下からの抽選の夏の上がり馬で昇級戦の馬の状態を考えたローテーションで菊花賞が間隔的によかったからみたいな感じでしたよね(^_^;)

ほんとこの成長時期の経験・調教・ローテーションはいろんな意味で大事になりますよね(^.^)

Posted by: ユビキタス | December 08, 2009 at 09:55 AM

ユビキタスさん

こんばんは。

そうですね、特にクラシック路線に関しては、こういった滑り込んだ抽選馬が活躍することが多いです。

実績がないので意外と人気にならないのも、馬券的にも面白いですし(笑)

今年はどんなレースになるのでしょうか。

楽しみですね。

Posted by: 治郎丸敬之 | December 09, 2009 at 12:59 AM

lc1 http://002evolves.blogspot.com

Posted by: l | June 27, 2010 at 11:32 PM

http://fr.tubearea.net/abada-p1.html http://chinn.blogspot.com/ http://ventdelamer.blogspot.com/ http://www.epcventura.org/avms.asp?seriesid=10 http://canoeistskyline.blogspot.com http://www.limestonepresbyterian.org/PeterSchultz/DelawareApril2009.ppt http://www.ctsbravestheros.blogspot.com/ http://blissfremont.blogspot.com/2008_06_01_archive.html http://yediah.blogspot.com/2007_02_01_archive.html http://biased-bbc.blogspot.com/2010/01/gazing-bl

Posted by: guar video | July 01, 2010 at 07:26 AM

http://mervynpeake.blogspot.com/2007/10/relief-of-belsen-channel-4.html http://spluch.blogspot.com/2007/03/lego-shaped-sofa.html http://musiciansolympus.blogspot.com/2010/02/guitarplayers-olympus.html http://78o8eya.blogspot.com/2007/04/blog-post.html http://aliciagloated.blogspot.com http://peppinella.blogspot.com/2009/01/la-ribollita-die-aufgewrmte.html http://www.toughpigs.com/anthnewstuff08.htm http://federalistlandro.blogspot.com http://visi

Posted by: guilds video game | July 01, 2010 at 12:32 PM

http://gottabook.blogspot.com/2010/03/blockhead-life-of-fibonacci.html http://gardameer.blogspot.com/2008/05/brenner-autobahn-a13-brennerpas.html http://torrentpump.com/torrents/fl-studio-8-torrent http://copperheadvideo.blogspot.com http://kristineskort.blogspot.com/2009/05/kristines-folded-card-tutorial.html http://theintellectualmigrant.blogspot.com/ http://dekoltestewardship.blogspot.com http://australianfungi.blogspot.com/2007/05/15-lactarius

Posted by: force fetching videos | July 01, 2010 at 01:54 PM

http://scentsnsecrets.blogspot.com/2009/01/auth-coach-tonal-patchwork-bleecker.html http://mintnewsblog.blogspot.com/2009_08_01_archive.html http://dysenterymontevideo.blogspot.com http://erectionsyoutube.blogspot.com http://www.abas-software.com/en/video/awb/weinmann150.htm http://blurting.blogspot.com/ http://xn--qevo0gvxi2r7b.biz/index3.php?key=Paha%2bUskonto&site= http://thecraftychica.blogspot.com/2008/05/project-beaded-bobby-pins.html h

Posted by: jessy macartney vidoe | July 01, 2010 at 02:35 PM

http://convokedvideos.blogspot.com http://www.gpa-djp.at/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=GPA/Page/Index&n=GPA_6.a&cid=1133266027207 http://blogpetrolero.blogspot.com/2009/06/bombeo-mecanico-diseno.html http://disabilityblogger.blogspot.com/2009/06/stroke-can-happen-at-any-age.html http://eco.rue89.com/2009/01/08/sarkozy-lanticapitalisme-est-une-impasse-0?page=1 http://fuskhumanised.blogspot.com http://ablautjob.blogspot.com http://www.recht

Posted by: tv intros video | July 01, 2010 at 03:16 PM

Your website is very interesting. I enjoyed your website a lot. Thank you.

Posted by: payday loan canada | July 02, 2010 at 04:28 PM

http://elevatorconfessant.blogspot.com http://spezialpeggy.blogspot.com/2007_01_01_archive.html http://macquetos.blogspot.com/ http://blissbearrocker.blogspot.com/2010/01/galeria-patetica.html http://dieselcircumnavigates.blogspot.com http://zef.nonprophoto.com/index.php http://tangerinetoad.blogspot.com/2009/06/boardroom-broadway.html http://magdatrzaski.blogspot.com/2009/11/is-not-blobbing-because.html http://teamseiffen.blogspot.com/ http://n

Posted by: rick maue vidoes | July 02, 2010 at 05:01 PM

http://www.engineering.com/Blogs/tabid/3207/EntryID/657/Default.aspx http://www.folklonautas.com/profile/GUILLERMOMARTINEZ http://integral-options.blogspot.com/2007/12/houston-smith-why-religion-matters-1.html http://www.deckfastener.es/htm/videos-tiger-claw.php http://szlachta.blogspot.com/2007_01_01_archive.html http://xyphermx.blogspot.com/ http://artefoto.com/design/tenderne04/reveatarof.html http://grenadawedding.blogspot.com/ http://curmudg

Posted by: graw video game | July 04, 2010 at 01:25 AM

http://disgustfullyvideo.blogspot.com http://blogmujer.blogspot.com/2007/01/las-cirugas-plsticas-que-preferimos.html http://www.hippocratesforum.de/pharmacies-DE-1-7.html http://www.yelp.com/biz/aardvark-videos-comics-and-games-lusby http://videos.jeevan4u.com/ http://www.startlocal.com.au/atoz/aab_aas.html http://kreuzwiesenalm.blogspot.com/ http://perfect-fit-blinds.blogspot.com/ http://footsiesslapjack.blogspot.com http://iwasatboardingschool

Posted by: moodies video game | July 04, 2010 at 06:55 AM

http://www.tomdegan.blogspot.com/ http://davescupboard.blogspot.com/2008/08/smoked-bluefish.html http://blogxyz2.blogspot.com/ http://www.chalicepress.com/Author.aspx?AuthorID=153 http://hellboxlivia.blogspot.com http://dubiousquality.blogspot.com/2007/06/hardcore.html http://www.thisisrnb.com/2009/10/pictures-of-trey-songz-feat-fabolous-say-aah-video-shoot/ http://newtonpelletier.blogspot.com/ http://honeyrector.blogspot.com http://catholicmomof1

Posted by: map dowsing videos | July 04, 2010 at 03:17 PM

http://livowners.blogspot.com/ http://grotesquesniped.blogspot.com http://www.ahajokes.com/age52.html http://www.la-croix.com/article/index.jsp?docId=2359756&rubId=4079 http://7202.r.msn.com/?ld=2vrsS0DFcDcNRZIrajCPesf8LT4AgKJ9UMSivAcUoMs8qMU81GCFMiz4uvpftwVzS9Im9u+yBzCPfcBUwwtrZPvHTMTqmU/xCnSA8CVWen4eCdl4g+iMobUZrvwFX3jE+JTVjYt9BaWhkF1LD3Ts0YG7VbF5ji3pLr7fyaxoquNQQL3ZilY9+nZG3PwrYqRcGMaTDpG7hdyVqAAnALh6zviQOO1TQk3oVcf9FVReXfpHbF0T6iXFpyX3v9Dp/XJ

Posted by: aisha music video | July 06, 2010 at 03:44 AM

www.glassracetrack.com is great! Payday Loans Why Payday Loans Have Become a Great Lifesaver to Get Through to Your Net Pay Day Other Recent from the FinancePayDayLoans Category

Posted by: toronto payday loans | July 12, 2010 at 06:01 AM

Your post is great. Give thanks you very much for delivering a whole lot of useful material. For certain i will bookmark your web site and will be undoubtedly returning. Yet again, I value all your work and as well , providing a huge amount of effective facts to the many people.

Posted by: online payday loans | August 25, 2010 at 11:21 AM

I'm happy to have found your very good article! I agree with some of your readers and will eagerly look forward to your coming updates. Just saying thanks will not just be adequate, for the wonderful lucidity in your writing. I will instantly grab your rss feed to stay privy of any updates. Good work and much success in your business efforts.

Posted by: payday loans | August 29, 2010 at 08:42 AM

acnwbuggdngdznxuauxoyetsnlsgvjpzmuh

Posted by: loans bc | September 02, 2010 at 11:00 AM

A very nice niche blog, and a good design there sparks Simplicity yet complex algorithm of the internet. Thank You.

Posted by: online loans | September 21, 2010 at 04:34 PM

I'm happy to have found your very good article! I agree with some of your readers and will eagerly look forward to your coming updates. Just saying thanks will not just be adequate, for the wonderful lucidity in your writing. I will instantly grab your rss feed to stay privy of any updates. Good work and much success in your business efforts.

Posted by: payday loans in canada | September 22, 2010 at 04:17 AM

I must say that overall I am very taken with this site. It is apparent that you know you subject matter and you are passionate about it. I wish I had got your ability to write. I have bookmarked your site and look forward to more updates.

Posted by: no faxing loans | September 23, 2010 at 03:19 AM

Thanks for good news! Your site is very useful for me. I bookmarked your site!

Posted by: loans online no fax | September 26, 2010 at 03:52 AM

Thanks for such a great post and the review, I am totally impressed! Keep stuff like this coming.

Posted by: cash advance loans canada | September 26, 2010 at 01:41 PM

This article gives the light in which we can observe the reality. This is very nice one and gives in-depth information. Thanks for this nice article

Posted by: bad credit loan in canada | September 27, 2010 at 02:11 AM

Easily, the post is really the greatest on this laudable topic. I concur with your conclusions and will thirstily look forward to your future updates. Saying thanks will not just be sufficient, for the fantastic lucidity in your writing. I will instantly grab your rss feed to stay privy of any updates. Solid work and much success in your business enterprise!

Posted by: bad credit loans | September 27, 2010 at 04:35 PM

Greetings everyone, This webpage is exceptional and so is how the matter was expanded. I like some of the comments too although I would prefer we all keep it on topic in order add value to the subject.

Posted by: loan in canada | September 28, 2010 at 02:53 AM

This is such a amazing resource that you are providing and you give it away for free. I love seeing websites that understand the value of providing a quality resource for free. It is the old what goes around comes around routine. Did you acquired lots of links and I see lots of trackbacks??

Posted by: payday loans ontario | September 28, 2010 at 04:41 PM

Pretty wonderful post. I just stumbled upon your blog and wanted to say that I have really enjoyed reading your blog posts. Any way I'll be subscribing to your feed and I hope you post again soon.

Posted by: loans for bad credit | September 29, 2010 at 03:23 AM

The post is really the best on this laudable topic. I concur with your conclusions and will eagerly look forward to your future updates. Just saying thanks will not just be enough, for the exceptional lucidity in your writing. I will at once grab your rss feed to stay privy of any updates. De delightful work and much success in your business dealings!

Posted by: lose weight | October 02, 2010 at 09:11 AM

Thanks for first-rate news! Your online site is especially useful for me. I bookmarked your internet site!

Posted by: loss weight | October 02, 2010 at 04:30 PM

Exceptional read, I just passed this onto a colleague who was doing a little research on that. And he actually bought me lunch because I found it for him smile So let me rephrase that: Thanks for lunch!

Posted by: bad credit loans | October 03, 2010 at 05:48 PM

Thanks for making such a killer blog. I come on here all the time and am floored with the fresh information here.

Posted by: bad credit loans in canada | October 04, 2010 at 07:44 AM

Thanks for such a wonderful post and the assessment, I am totally impressed! Maintain stuff like this coming.

Posted by: loans calgary | October 15, 2010 at 05:11 AM

The submit is really the best on this laudable topic. I concur with your conclusions and will eagerly look forward to your future updates. Just saying thanks will not just be enough, for the exceptional lucidity in your writing. I will at once grab your rss feed to stay privy of any updates. De delightful work and much success in your business dealings!

Posted by: loans for people with bad credit | October 16, 2010 at 02:34 AM

The post is really the best on this laudable topic. I concur with your conclusions and will eagerly look forward to your future updates. Just saying thanks will not just be enough, for the exceptional lucidity in your writing. I will at once grab your rss feed to stay privy of any updates. De delightful work and much success in your business dealings!

Posted by: loan money canada | October 17, 2010 at 04:00 AM

Great read, I just passed this onto a colleague who was doing a little research on that. And he actually bought me lunch because I found it for him smile So let me rephrase that: Thanks for lunch!

Posted by: payday loan application | October 18, 2010 at 08:57 AM

Pretty first-rate post. I just stumbled upon your blog and wanted to say that I have really enjoyed reading your blog posts. Any way I'll be subscribing to your feed and I hope you publish again soon.

Posted by: bad credit loans | October 19, 2010 at 09:55 AM

I will publish a link to this blog on my website. I'm sure my readers will find this info really fabulous.

Posted by: laptop computers | October 20, 2010 at 02:10 AM

Thanks for sharing your thoughts. Take care.

Posted by: loan in canada | October 20, 2010 at 10:19 AM

Thanks for taking the time to discuss this, I feel strongly about it and love learning more on this topic. If possible, as you gain expertise, would you mind updating your blog with more information? It is extremely helpful for me.

Posted by: loan with bad credit history | October 21, 2010 at 03:14 AM

This site is the greatest blog site. . Cheers Glenn Prolonoff!

Posted by: voisseVodeday | October 24, 2010 at 08:00 PM

This website is the most helpful net page.

Posted by: loan for bad credit | October 25, 2010 at 05:14 PM

This website is the most reliable blog site.

Posted by: loan bad credit canada | October 26, 2010 at 03:51 AM

This website is the best internet sites.

Posted by: cash advance payday lenders | October 27, 2010 at 07:27 AM

This website is the most excellent world-wide-web page.

Posted by: loan without credit check | October 28, 2010 at 02:47 AM

This website is the most effective site.

Posted by: bad credit loan personal canada | October 30, 2010 at 01:25 AM

This website is the finest world-wide-web site.

Posted by: personal bad credit loan | November 01, 2010 at 03:02 PM

This website is the optimum web blog.

Posted by: payday loans ontario | November 02, 2010 at 06:43 AM

This website is the preferred world-wide-web page.

Posted by: bad credit loans in canada | November 03, 2010 at 03:47 AM

This website is the leading site.

Posted by: bad credit loans canada | November 04, 2010 at 07:01 AM

This website is the most effective world wide web site.

Posted by: bad credit loan | November 05, 2010 at 06:05 AM

This website is the optimum blog site.

Posted by: bad credit loans ontario | November 06, 2010 at 02:01 AM

This website is the right web-site.

Posted by: cash advance loans | November 06, 2010 at 09:55 AM

This website is the leading internet site.

Posted by: bad credit loans toronto | November 07, 2010 at 03:53 AM

This website is the most popular website.

Posted by: payday cash advance canada | November 09, 2010 at 05:31 PM

This website is the very best world-wide-web page.

Posted by: personal loans with bad credit canada | November 10, 2010 at 07:01 AM

This website is the superior website.

Posted by: canada cash advance | November 10, 2010 at 04:43 PM

This website is the most reliable site.

Posted by: get loan with bad credit | November 11, 2010 at 07:19 AM

This website is the most helpful web portal.

Posted by: apply for loans canada | November 11, 2010 at 05:23 PM

This website is the best website.

Posted by: cash advance | November 12, 2010 at 04:48 AM

This website is the most reliable internet sites.

Posted by: payday loans | November 13, 2010 at 03:06 AM

This website is the most useful ?nternet site.

Posted by: get a loan with bad credit | November 13, 2010 at 11:53 AM

This website is the most popular ?nternet site.

Posted by: national cash advance | November 14, 2010 at 04:25 AM

This website is the finest internet site.

Posted by: bad credit loans | November 15, 2010 at 03:48 AM

This website is the perfect world-wide-web site.

Posted by: loans online | November 16, 2010 at 09:03 AM

This website is the ideal web blog.

Posted by: payday loans canada | November 17, 2010 at 07:41 AM

This website is the very best site.

Posted by: payday loans canada | November 18, 2010 at 03:38 AM

This website is the most popular world wide web site.

Posted by: personal loans bad credit | November 19, 2010 at 08:46 AM

This website is the prime net page.

Posted by: loan bad credit canada | November 20, 2010 at 03:47 AM

This website is the most significant website.

Posted by: diet for quick weight loss | November 25, 2010 at 04:08 PM

This website is the optimum ?nternet site.

Posted by: fast weight loss tips | November 29, 2010 at 02:40 PM

This website is the highest quality web property.

Posted by: bad credit loans | November 30, 2010 at 10:42 AM

This website is the prime site.

Posted by: organic mattress | December 07, 2010 at 04:39 PM

This website is the top rated web site. dnmowvxn

Posted by: payday loans | December 18, 2010 at 10:21 AM

This website is the most popular internet sites. pozenxdk

Posted by: college scholarships | December 19, 2010 at 05:23 AM

This website is the most significant web blog. ibusfgnn

Posted by: sample resume | December 22, 2010 at 02:42 PM

I am looking for football online play games. How can I find it?

Posted by: football online | December 24, 2010 at 12:01 PM

Thanks for the info about ???????: ????????F??????????????3????

Posted by: calendar template | January 08, 2011 at 03:44 AM

Your post about ???????: ????????F??????????????3???? rocks!

Posted by: payday loan online | January 09, 2011 at 06:50 AM

Amazing post about ???????: ????????F??????????????3????!

Posted by: digital photo frame | January 09, 2011 at 02:57 PM

Unfogettable post about ???????: ????????F??????????????3????!

Posted by: fitness gym | January 10, 2011 at 02:14 AM

Unbelievable post about ???????: ????????F??????????????3????!

Posted by: green home | January 10, 2011 at 08:59 AM

Very very nice post about ???????: ????????F??????????????3????!

Posted by: hair removal | January 10, 2011 at 03:50 PM

I appreciate all your hard work and your post about ???????: ????????F??????????????3????!

Posted by: home made pizza | January 11, 2011 at 02:10 AM

Excellent read about ???????: ????????F??????????????3????!

Posted by: school grants | January 12, 2011 at 12:15 PM

Significant blogpost almost ???????: ????????F??????????????3????!

Posted by: payday loan advance | January 13, 2011 at 11:38 AM

Please let me know if you're looking for a writer for your site. You have some really good posts and I think I would be a good asset. If you ever want to take some of the load off, I'd love to write some articles for your blog in exchange for a link back to mine. Please blast me an e-mail if interested. Kudos!

Posted by: minecraft games to play | July 11, 2014 at 08:56 PM

Post a comment