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フェブラリーSを当てるために知っておくべき3つのこと

Feb

■1■スピードが求められる
平成14年以降、アグネスデジタル(マイルCS、天皇賞秋、安田記念など)、ゴールドアリュール(ダービー5着)、アドマイヤドン(朝日杯フューチュリティS、菊花賞4着)、メイショウボーラー(皐月賞3着、NHKマイルC3着)など、芝コースで実績のある馬の活躍が目立っている。2着馬に目を移しても、平成16年のサイレントディールはシンザン記念を制していて、平成17年のシーキングザダイヤはニュージーランドTを勝っている。ここ数年で、芝のG1戦線でも十分に勝ち負けになる実力馬の参戦、もしくは転戦により、フェブラリーSの勢力図が変化してきていることは見逃せない。

なぜ芝コースで実績のある馬が、畑違いのダートG1レースでも同じような走りを見せることができるのだろうか。もちろん、芝コースで実績のある馬は能力自体が高いのだが、それ以外の理由として以下の2つが挙げられる。

1)東京ダート1600mのコースは、スタート直後に80mほど芝コースを走るから
2)1分35秒台で決着することが多く、スピードが求められるから

1)のスタート直後の芝コースは、確かに東京ダート1600mコース独特のものである。スタート直後80mの芝部分を利して、芝実績のある馬が先手を取って流れに乗ることが出来るということである。しかし、わずかスタート直後80mの芝部分がレースの勝敗を左右するとは思えない。とすると、2)のスピードが求められるという理由の方が大きいのではないだろうか。

東京競馬場のダートコースは砂が浅いため、冬場の時期でも、それほど力のいる馬場にはならない。平成10年は勝ち時計が1分37秒5と、非常に力の必要とされる馬場であったが、さまざまな原因が重なって起こった例外的なものと考えていいだろう。

標準的な馬場であれば、オープンクラスだとマイルで1分35秒台での決着となる。これくらいの馬場状態だと、ダート戦といってもスピードがないと勝負にならず、パワーだけで勝負する生粋のダート馬にとっては苦しいレースになるだろう。スピードの絶対値が高い馬、つまり芝コースでの実績馬が活躍するのは当然といえば当然の結果である。


■2■4、5歳馬が中心
4歳   【5-7-1-39】
5歳   【6-2-3-32】
6歳   【2-1-6-54】
7歳以上【0-3-3-46】

過去13年の年齢別の成績を見てみると、4、5歳馬から勝ち馬が11頭と、若い世代が高齢馬を圧倒している。ダートは馬が痛まないので高齢まで長く好走できるのだが、極限のスピード能力が要求されるフェブラリーSでは、スピード能力の落ちてきた高齢馬のゴマカシが利かず、ある意味において篩(ふるい)に掛けられてしまうのである。

■3■1600m以上のスタミナが求められる
スタートしてから第1コーナーまでの距離が長いため、息の入らない激しい流れになることが多い。そのため、スピードだけではなく、最後の直線でバテずに踏ん張ることのできるスタミナも必要とされる。1600mという数字以上のスタミナを要求されるのは、過去の勝ち馬を見ても明らかである。前述したスピードと、それを持続するスタミナ、そのどちらを欠いてもフェブラリーステークスを制することはできない。

現在のランキング順位はこちら

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Comments

治郎丸さんこんばんは。

馬券道場の方はまだ途中なんですが、連続昇段してしまいましたあああ!

http://umaroda.jpn.org/cgi/upother/img/umarodasonota6654.jpg

今回は前半で結構貯金ができたので、気楽にできたのがよかったんだと思います。
でも実は、相性の悪い東京からは逃げて(笑)、5日間を京都で勝負しました。

ここ2ヶ月間、東西の後半5レースを真剣に予想して、またレース後にもしっかり復習したことで、
錆び付いていた競馬勘が大分戻ってきました。
また、以前の馬券術にプラスαの要素を入れたことで、回収率もなかなかいい感じですし、
手応えも感じ始めています!

治郎丸さんと再会した時には、聞きたい事・話したい事が山ほどありますし(会ったら、とりあえずお互い大爆笑しそうですね笑)、
そこで色々と話し合えば、お互いの競馬力も向上できると思います!楽しみですね!

今回はもう昇段はできたので、最終週はランキング200位以内を目指して、強振するのみ!(笑)

今週はいよいよフェブラリーSで楽しみですね。
現時点では、ダートの猛者として覚醒期を迎えたっぽい?◎グロリアスノアで行こうかなあと。
鞍上も渋く、こういうコンビはついつい応援したくなるのです。極端な枠を引かなければ!

Posted by: 冷や飯 | February 16, 2010 at 02:44 AM

冷や飯さん

おめでとうございます!

昇段の報告をまだかまだかと待っていましたよ。

もしかしたらと思ってしまったりして。

それにしても60R購入して回収率140%とは素晴らしい成績ですね。

暖かくなって再会できる日まで、とにかく勝ち続けていてください。

今週のフェブラリーSも楽しみです。

グロリアスノアは根岸Sは着差以上に強い内容だったと思います。

あとは前走の反動があるかどうかですね。

Posted by: 治郎丸敬之 | February 17, 2010 at 02:05 AM

今回は芝の方からも参戦してくるので余計に難解なレースになりそうですね。

枠や脚質や展開にもよると思いますがあと芝からの参戦組がどこまでヤレるのかはたまた力と能力はあるのにはじめてのダートで砂を被ってヤメたりしないか期待と不安がありますね。

自分自身このコースはユニコーンSと同じコースなのでダートの凄さや魅力を自身に教えてくれたユビキタスのことを考えます。

船橋に移籍してからはあまり情報が入って来ないので…。

ともあれあの子の事だから元気に一生懸命に頑張ってると思いますけどね。

Posted by: ユビキタス | February 18, 2010 at 04:40 PM

ユビキタスさん

芝からの転戦組も多くて、とても見応えのあるレースになりそうですね。

確かにかつてはタイキシャトルも勝ったことのあるユニコーンSと同じ舞台です。

ユビキタスは引退したようですね。

もし乗馬になるのであれば、どこかで再会できるのではないでしょうか。

大きな馬だっただけに、彼の背から見える風景は素晴らしいだろうなあ。

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